Chiefs, Mahommes SB era done. Your salary cap advantage just ended.

[Steel Maniac]

Their QB is not the only difference in results to be honest. Their coach is a first ballot HOFer who spent his first 19 years without a HOF QB and still accumulated an 11-13 playoff record with 3 different ones.

Boom!!!!!!!!!!

[Steel Maniac]

Check out the title of the thread.

I think maybe the difference of opinion we have is because I'm trying to think about probabilities.

I don't think what we are doing is "right". But I do think what we're doing is (at least mostly) "reasonable". I think you are judging our past actions based on your knowledge on how they turned out instead of judging them based on the information that was available when the decisions were made. Personally, I don't think that's a great way to judge the process. I don't know if you play or ever watched poker, but poker players lose "good bets" all the time. Because they don't have perfect information. Just like drafting and acquiring players through UFA.

I think the chances of screwing the roster up are much higher by signing big name UFAs. My guess is that if you look at the production of these signings vs. their cap hit, most underperform.

I don't think that's a "good bet" when you're at the beginning of a rebuild. I think it makes more sense when you're a contender...because I think you need to overpay less to bring high quality UFAs in when you can realistically say that you have a chance to win a SB.

We aren't there yet. And I think that whether we get there depends mostly on what KP turns out to be.

You say that the problem is the "business model" and that we should "improve it" (non-specifically I think). I think that's incorrect. I think the difference in results between us and KC isn't the business model. It's the QB talent. Maybe if we also had elite QB play, we could be arguing about how these other things are playing a big role in the outcomes. But having great (or at least above average) QB play is the first thing you need to be successful in the NFL IMO.

what does the QB play have to do with them getting Edwards? And finding the Cash and getting a quality safety? Your "Mahomes" excuse doesn't hold water. It's not just Mahomes. You try and discredit everything they do because they have Mahomes. It's not working. LOL

[crushedspirit]

So far, the Chiefs have upgraded their defense, especially an already solid dline.

Looks like they will be drafting offense.

[Northern_Blitz]

Their QB is not the only difference in results to be honest. Their coach is a first ballot HOFer who spent his first 19 years without a HOF QB and still accumulated an 11-13 playoff record with 3 different ones.

I agree that QB play is not the only difference. But I think it's certainly the biggest difference. And I think it's not close.

And brining up Reid shows exactly how big the difference is. Going from a very good QB like McNabb to an elite QB like Mahomes is the difference between being what Reid is now vs. a guy like Marty.

I agree that Reid is a very good coach. Just like Tomlin. Just like Cowher. And just like a guy like Marty S (only NFL HC with 200+ wins to not be in the Hall). If Marty got Montana in his prime, he's probably got a jacket by now IMO.

Edited to add: Note that there are some posters on here who believe that a playoff win% less than 0.500 means that you are a terrible coach. We clearly agree that this isn't the case.

[Northern_Blitz]

what does the QB play have to do with them getting Edwards? And finding the Cash and getting a quality safety? Your "Mahomes" excuse doesn't hold water. It's not just Mahomes. You try and discredit everything they do because they have Mahomes. It's not working. LOL

I'm not discrediting them. I'm crediting them. The difference seems to be that I'm also crediting us (which you don't seem willing to do).

I think it's an amazing accomplishment to win with a QB with a cap hit that high. No one has ever done that before. And who knows if anyone will do it again.

But it's really hard to win in the NFL without either (1) a very good, close to elite QB or (2) a QB on a rookie deal. In the ideal situation, you have both. And if you're guy isn't on a rookie deal (or maybe in the first year or two of his 2nd deal where the hit is still low), you better hope that he's elite (or at least really close).

How many teams win without a very good QB? The Eagles with Foles? Flacco 2012 (although he did have a great playoff run). E Manning (2x). Brad Johnson 2002. Trent Dilfer 2000. A few times in a quarter century?

Aside: I think it's interesting that it seems like of the "not great" QB wins have come from the NFC too. Seems to me like the best QB talent has been in the AFC for a long time (Manning, Brady, Ben, Mahomes). It wasn't true when the NFC had Montana, Young, and Aikman. But it seems to me that the AFC has had more of the great QBs since then (although Brees and Rodgers were certainly great players too).

Edited to add: not sure why you seem to take it personally when people say that our team tends to act reasonably.

[Northern_Blitz]

what does the QB play have to do with them getting Edwards? And finding the Cash and getting a quality safety? Your "Mahomes" excuse doesn't hold water. It's not just Mahomes. You try and discredit everything they do because they have Mahomes. It's not working. LOL

Didn't you say that the Edwards signing is "extremely cheap"? 1 year for $3M

Where would they ever find the money to do something like that?!!

Edited to add: Where did we ever find the money to sign Peterson after letting Sutton walk?!!

[Steel Maniac]

I'm not discrediting them. I'm crediting them. The difference seems to be that I'm also crediting us (which you don't seem willing to do).

I think it's an amazing accomplishment to win with a QB with a cap hit that high. No one has ever done that before. And who knows if anyone will do it again.

But it's really hard to win in the NFL without either (1) a very good, close to elite QB or (2) a QB on a rookie deal. In the ideal situation, you have both. And if you're guy isn't on a rookie deal (or maybe in the first year or two of his 2nd deal where the hit is still low), you better hope that he's elite (or at least really close).

How many teams win without a very good QB? The Eagles with Foles? Flacco 2012 (although he did have a great playoff run). E Manning (2x). Brad Johnson 2002. Trent Dilfer 2000. A few times in a quarter century?

Aside: I think it's interesting that it seems like of the "not great" QB wins have come from the NFC too. Seems to me like the best QB talent has been in the AFC for a long time (Manning, Brady, Ben, Mahomes). It wasn't true when the NFC had Montana, Young, and Aikman. But it seems to me that the AFC has had more of the great QBs since then (although Brees and Rodgers were certainly great players too).

Edited to add: not sure why you seem to take it personally when people say that our team tends to act reasonably.

I’m not taking anything personally. You are reading too much into it.

I’m not going to give credit on something that isn’t working. That’s where the disconnect is.

You want me to Pat us on thr back for fielding a team that has two elite players ( Watt; Minka) and the rest are just guys.

Nothing to give credit for. All we are doing is treading water at best. If you think that’s something that is great then good for you.

[Steel Maniac]

So far, the Chiefs have upgraded their defense, especially an already solid dline.

Looks like they will be drafting offense.

Probably the best WR on the board . They are probably letting hardman go.

[crushedspirit]

I agree that QB play is not the only difference. But I think it's certainly the biggest difference. And I think it's not close.

And brining up Reid shows exactly how big the difference is. Going from a very good QB like McNabb to an elite QB like Mahomes is the difference between being what Reid is now vs. a guy like Marty.

I agree that Reid is a very good coach. Just like Tomlin. Just like Cowher. And just like a guy like Marty S (only NFL HC with 200+ wins to not be in the Hall). If Marty got Montana in his prime, he's probably got a jacket by now IMO.

Edited to add: Note that there are some posters on here who believe that a playoff win% less than 0.500 means that you are a terrible coach. We clearly agree that this isn't the case.

Reid and Hoodie are the only 2 first ballot coaches currently still coaching, that part is a given. If you can have an 11-13 record in the playoffs while going to 5 Conference Championships with 3 different non-HOF QBs, I'm pretty sure most would recognize that as an accomplishment. And both franchises he took over were in complete disarray and needed time to be rebuilt.

Without Mahomes, Reid is still the much better coach. Mahomes just made him a first ballot HOF coach instead of having to wait a few years to get in.

[Steel Maniac]

Didn't you say that the Edwards signing is "extremely cheap"? 1 year for $3M

Where would they ever find the money to do something like that?!!

Edited to add: Where did we ever find the money to sign Peterson after letting Sutton walk?!!

But the Chiefs upgraded! Did we when we got Peterson and not Sutton? Asking for a friend. Lol

[Steel Maniac]

Reid and Hoodie are the only 2 first ballot coaches currently still coaching, that part is a given. If you can have an 11-13 record in the playoffs while going to 5 Conference Championships with 3 different non-HOF QBs, I'm pretty sure most would recognize that as an accomplishment. And both franchises he took over were in complete disarray and needed time to be rebuilt.

Without Mahomes, Reid is still the much better coach. Mahomes just made him a first ballot HOF coach instead of having to wait a few years to get in.

Agreed. Some don’t want to hear that but it’s the truth.

[hawaiiansteel]

I’m not taking anything personally.

[Northern_Blitz]

Reid and Hoodie are the only 2 first ballot coaches currently still coaching, that part is a given. If you can have an 11-13 record in the playoffs while going to 5 Conference Championships with 3 different non-HOF QBs, I'm pretty sure most would recognize that as an accomplishment. And both franchises he took over were in complete disarray and needed time to be rebuilt.

Without Mahomes, Reid is still the much better coach. Mahomes just made him a first ballot HOF coach instead of having to wait a few years to get in.

He may be a better coach. I think there is a reasonable argument that he is.

But he wouldn't look like it without Mahomes. He'd look like Marty.

It's having the best QB of his generation that makes him look great to people that inky care about SB wins.

[crushedspirit]

He may be a better coach. I think there is a reasonable argument that he is.

But he wouldn't look like it without Mahomes. He'd look like Marty.

It's having the best QB of his generation that makes him look great to people that inky care about SB wins.

Well yeah any generational QBs will elevate those coaches to a different stratosphere, that's a given. The point is that he was already better in comparison before Mahomes.

I don't agree at all he would look like Marty, who finished 5-13 in the playoffs and had Drew Brees for years. He was a horrible playoff coach.

[Steel Maniac]

I don't agree at all he would look like Marty, who finished 5-13 in the playoffs and had Drew Brees for years. He was a horrible playoff coach.

Exactly. exactly.