Two situations

[papillon]

I'm curious what everyone thinks about the following two scenarios, the decisions that were made and an alternative decision to each with explanation.

Scenario 1

Steelers up by 1 pt and score TD

What happened next: Steelers kick point after and go up 8 points.
Alternative: Go for two points, make it and go up two scores or fail and still be winning by 7 points. I don't think the Pats go for the win when they score, they kick a PAT and its tied.


Scenario 2

4th and 1, ball on the Steeler 28 yard line, Pats with two TOs and 2 minute warning.

What happened: Steelers punt (a great one) and Pats score game winning TD and 2 pt conversion with 56 seconds left in game. Steelers come down the field, weell you know the rest

Alternative: Go for it on 4th down, if you make it, you get at least 3 more downs to burn clock and force the Pats into using timeouts or possibly running out the clock and game over.
If you don't make it, the Pats get the ball on the 28, you let them score on the next play and Ben has 2 minutes and 2 timeouts to move into FG range or score a TD.

Just curious if I'm the only one thinking about these two scenarios differently than the way they played out.

Pappy

[snarky]

Scenario 1 definitely crossed my mind. Especially with the uncertainty of extra points at Heinz in December.

Take a really simple model where both teams have a 48% chance of making a 2 pt conversion and a 95% chance of making the PAT. Let's say you execute the strategy in option 1. Here are the outcome probabilities:

Steelers 3 pt lead 0.02
Steelers 2 pt lead 0.46
Steelers 1 pt lead 0.03
Tied: 0.49

Compared to the traditional strategy

Steelers 2 pt lead 0.49
Steelers 1 pt lead 0.02
Tied: 0.49

Under that model, they are close but the first option is slightly better due to the slim chance that you come out of it with a three point lead.

Furthermore, if you judge that the Patriots odds of converting the two pointer are higher, it's even more worth it to go for two (even if the Steelers chances of converting are lower). It's sort of odd to describe but assuming the Pats would only play for a tie only one team will go for two in that exchange. So it's better to take their advantage out of the equation.

[pittpete]

Scenario 1
Honestly i thought it was too early to think about going for two even though it briefly crossed my mind.

Scenario 2
I texted my brother at the game and said if NE gets the ball back you know they're going to score so we might as well go for it.
The thing is, the defense up to that point relatively held Gronk in check. I never expected they would let him run free to catch 3 passes in a row with no safety help.

[Jooser]

I was pacing the floor last night telling my wife we had to go for it in Scenario 2.

I agree, go for it and if successful, you burn some clock and/or make em use their TO's. IF you don't get it, they would probably score quickly and BB would have more time to get it done. Sometimes you have to have guts. I don't understand why there's no will to go for it there, but the coaches override BB on the last play and go for a TD instead of kicking the FG.

[Starlifter]

I hate second guessing - but I thought on 4th and 1 you go for it. The Steelers aren’t afraid to take risks - Think last Christmas. Think San Diego.

You have the best RB in the game and you played the odds. I think the Steelers played 55 minutes of inspired football and in the last 5 minutes lost their nerve, composure against a team who is very disciplined.

The overturned catch sucks. But it’s one play in a long season. Will that play keep us out of the #1 seed? Possibly. But so will the loss to the bears.

[MCHammer]

I would not normally advocate going for it on 4 in 1 from your own 28 when you are ahead. But at the time, my thought was that we have a better chance of picking up this first down and winning the game than punting and holding on. Hard to believe Bell could not have gotten 1 yard with the game on the line.

I am not blaming the coaches for doing the conventional thing. Hell, normally, I would blame them for doing anything but the conventional thing in a situation like that. But not against the Patriots last night.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think that the options that you outline would have been reasonable. I don't think that the decisions that the Steelers made were "mistakes".

Re: Going for 2. I wanted the 1. I was would rather make the Pats score the TD and the 2 pt conversion. In a way, the 2 pt is harder because you only get 1 chance at it (not 4 downs). I think that we had a better chance of stopping Brady Gronk on 1 play than on going the length of the field using 4 downs at a time. I feel like this was the right call.

Re: 4&1. I think that it's very deflating if you miss on a 4th down. And the Pats did a good job of shutting down the run at the end of the game. Would have been great if we went for it and got it. But, people would be lighting the internet on fire if we went for it, didn't get it and it led to a TD. The D had been playing pretty well up until that point. Doing this pretty much tells them that you have no confidence in them.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I'm curious what everyone thinks about the following two scenarios, the decisions that were made and an alternative decision to each with explanation.

Scenario 1

Steelers up by 1 pt and score TD

What happened next: Steelers kick point after and go up 8 points.
Alternative: Go for two points, make it and go up two scores or fail and still be winning by 7 points. I don't think the Pats go for the win when they score, they kick a PAT and its tied.


Scenario 2

4th and 1, ball on the Steeler 28 yard line, Pats with two TOs and 2 minute warning.

What happened: Steelers punt (a great one) and Pats score game winning TD and 2 pt conversion with 56 seconds left in game. Steelers come down the field, weell you know the rest

Alternative: Go for it on 4th down, if you make it, you get at least 3 more downs to burn clock and force the Pats into using timeouts or possibly running out the clock and game over.
If you don't make it, the Pats get the ball on the 28, you let them score on the next play and Ben has 2 minutes and 2 timeouts to move into FG range or score a TD.

Just curious if I'm the only one thinking about these two scenarios differently than the way they played out.

Pappy

Scenario 1 is more realistic... HOWEVER, EVEN IF WE MAKE IT... all it means is that Brady would have converted a 4th down play by going to Gronk instead of them kicking the FG.

Scenario 2 - no way in hell I take a chance that I'd give them the ball on the 28 and ask my defense to stop them. Especially after turtling on that (and the end of the prior) possession. You man up and go get a first down when you can instead of being conservative...

[papillon]

Scenario 1 is more realistic... HOWEVER, EVEN IF WE MAKE IT... all it means is that Brady would have converted a 4th down play by going to Gronk instead of them kicking the FG.

Scenario 2 - no way in hell I take a chance that I'd give them the ball on the 28 and ask my defense to stop them. Especially after turtling on that (and the end of the prior) possession. You man up and go get a first down when you can instead of being conservative...

Scenario 2, I'm not asking the defense to stop them, I'm asking the defense to concede the TD on the next play by the Patriots whether it be a run or pass and give Ben the ball back with two TOs, 2 minutes and needing a FG to tie or TD to win.

Pappy

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Scenario 2, I'm not asking the defense to stop them, I'm asking the defense to concede the TD on the next play by the Patriots whether it be a run or pass and give Ben the ball back with two TOs, 2 minutes and needing a FG to tie or TD to win.

Pappy

giving up the lead in hopes that we score on a final drive? i'd say we kinda did that and got down to the 10 with plenty of time left... ya just don't always score on that final drive.

[Ernie]

I'm curious what everyone thinks about the following two scenarios, the decisions that were made and an alternative decision to each with explanation.

Scenario 1

Steelers up by 1 pt and score TD

What happened next: Steelers kick point after and go up 8 points.
Alternative: Go for two points, make it and go up two scores or fail and still be winning by 7 points. I don't think the Pats go for the win when they score, they kick a PAT and its tied.


Scenario 2

4th and 1, ball on the Steeler 28 yard line, Pats with two TOs and 2 minute warning.

What happened: Steelers punt (a great one) and Pats score game winning TD and 2 pt conversion with 56 seconds left in game. Steelers come down the field, weell you know the rest

Alternative: Go for it on 4th down, if you make it, you get at least 3 more downs to burn clock and force the Pats into using timeouts or possibly running out the clock and game over.
If you don't make it, the Pats get the ball on the 28, you let them score on the next play and Ben has 2 minutes and 2 timeouts to move into FG range or score a TD.

Just curious if I'm the only one thinking about these two scenarios differently than the way they played out.

Pappy

Good call. You just knew Brady was going to score again when he got the ball back... regardless of where he was at on the field. Just as well leave us some time on the clock (if we miss the 4th and 1) to win the game.