Wilson 2025 Contract Offer

[papillon]

If folks are fine with Watt getting $30M per, I don’t see why they wouldn’t be okay with $40M per if Wilson keeps this up and we win a playoff game.

I think age has a lot to do with it. We've seen other quarterbacks fall off a cliff as they get into their late 30s. I don't know Wilson's dietary and training regimen but you have to assume his skills are going to begin to diminish and not get better.

Watt just turned 30 in October so he may still have 4-5 good to great years left. Of course, he plays a position with contact nearly every play so injury is more likely than with Wilson.

On the other hand, quarterbacks that produce get paid and Wilson is producing right now. It will be interesting to see how the next 3 games go for the Steelers and the offense.

Pappy

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

Priorities might be different when rehabbing your image and signing another long term deal.

Hoping that you're right about him taking a sweetheart deal (again probably starts with a 4 in AAV). But I'm reluctant to bet against player self-interest.

Player self-interest of earning top dollar vs. legacy of career resurrection and image are different between a guy hitting FA for the first time and a vet with over $300M in career earnings. Even if we are talking 3 year - $90M vs. 3 year - $135M (which is about as extreme a variation as I can imagine in this case) the extra $45M will not change his life, nor his kids' lives. I think a guy like Russell Wilson loves the positive PR that will come with proving everyone wrong.

[Starlifter]

only Russ knows his motivations. But he has the advantage of already earning lifetime generational money - plus what his wife brings to the table. So that means money will always be important - but there is likely some wiggle room. Would he want to bankrupt a team so he is (possibly) the highest paid QB in the league - but is surrounded by the cheapest players left? I don't sense that is his mindset.

Let's see how the season finishes out. IF the Steelers go deep and perhaps even hoist #7, I don't think a lucrative 3-4 year deal is debatable. This has been the most complete team we've seen in over a decade. It would be nice if they could keep as many pieces of the puzzle in place as possible.

Oh, and add Tee Higgins next year just to ruin Cincy's 2025.........

[Captain Lemming]

Priorities might be different when rehabbing your image and signing another long term deal.

If he is rehabbing his image for a contract? Sure. But if your primary motivation is winning because you value being seen as an all time great and be assured of a HOF induction?

He has already been paid multiple huge deals and your last one was actually made his induction LESS likely. Is 10 mil per of money you that won’t change your life worth going back to a situation that might jeopardize that again?

Hoping that you're right about him taking a sweetheart deal (again probably starts with a 4 in AAV). But I'm reluctant to bet against player self-interest.

I am not at all suggesting he wants to do the Steelers any favors. You miss my point.

“Self interest” depends on what “self” wants. That is not always maximum coin especially if you already made a ton of dough. He has had the ego thrill of being the highest paid player in league history while a Seahawk. He also is notorious for being the biggest waste of money in league history as a Bronco. Two ginormous deals that got him paid with no rings to show for it.

Dude has the bitter taste of Bronco. He is not going to want to go back to that to max his money.

And if he is playing for another ring and what that would do to his legacy he knows and has experienced life with a contract that killed a great defense.

He sold Tomlin big time and I have a feeling it was 100 percent what he was willing to sacrifice to get them BOTH rings to cement their legacies.

You watch when the deal gets done. A big deal will be made over Russ taking a hit to win. But even that ain’t exactly peanuts, we are talking tens of millions annually.

[Northern_Blitz]

If this mattered more then than the fit with Pittsburgh he’d be a Giant right now. They offered him already.

Priorities might be different when rehabbing your image and signing another long term deal.

Hoping that you're right about him taking a sweetheart deal (again probably starts with a 4 in AAV). But I'm reluctant to bet against player self-interest.

[Captain Lemming]

Would his wife might also benefit from living in a big market? I don't know much / anything about her.

If this mattered more then than the fit with Pittsburgh he’d be a Giant right now. They offered him already.

[Captain Lemming]

Maybe so. But his agent gets paid based on the contract value and I'm sure he will be whispering in Wilson's ear about the money Russ could make elsewhere. Russ might be enjoying his time here but there are really no long-term relationships keeping him here. Some team will offer him stupid money. They always do. Fortunately, at least one stupid team is off the market for him.

Doesn’t matter what his agent wants. If Russ wants legacy over top dollar he does not need an agent to tell him he can get more elsewhere.

To complete my point, you wanna bet Russ does not even test the market before signing? It is a gut feeling but I think he ain’t going anywhere chasing dollars. We gotta pay him but he will know he could get more.

Remember, if he is chasing legacy he CAANOT put us in a bad cap bind and get it.

[Northern_Blitz]

Maybe so. But his agent gets paid based on the contract value and I'm sure he will be whispering in Wilson's ear about the money Russ could make elsewhere. Russ might be enjoying his time here but there are really no long-term relationships keeping him here. Some team will offer him stupid money. They always do. Fortunately, at least one stupid team is off the market for him.

Would his wife might also benefit from living in a big market? I don't know much / anything about her.

[NorthCoast]

I said when we signed him Russ I think he committed to us long term verbally. I think this is partly why Toulon was so committed to him. He will not pursue what he can make on the open market, destroying our cap in the process.

Russ is playing for legacy at this point. He is not going to walk to a worse situation for an extra 10 million per after his experience in Denver. He is on a team that won with KENNY. His next stop would not be as favorable.

Russ has ALREADY been paid more than all but a couple of players in league history. He will die a wealthy man if he doesn’t make another dime. Even an under market for his abilities is REAL MONEY.

This fit is perfect to assure his HOF legacy which is more valuable than a level of pay difference that will mean little in his standard of living.

Maybe so. But his agent gets paid based on the contract value and I'm sure he will be whispering in Wilson's ear about the money Russ could make elsewhere. Russ might be enjoying his time here but there are really no long-term relationships keeping him here. Some team will offer him stupid money. They always do. Fortunately, at least one stupid team is off the market for him.

[Northern_Blitz]

I said when we signed him Russ I think he committed to us long term verbally. I think this is partly why Toulon was so committed to him. He will not pursue what he can make on the open market, destroying our cap in the process.

Russ is playing for legacy at this point. He is not going to walk to a worse situation for an extra 10 million per after his experience in Denver. He is on a team that won with KENNY. His next stop would not be as favorable.

Russ has ALREADY been paid more than all but a couple of players in league history. He will die a wealthy man if he doesn’t make another dime. Even an under market for his abilities is REAL MONEY.

This fit is perfect to assure his HOF legacy which is more valuable than a level of pay difference that will mean little in his standard of living.

$40MM - $45MM/year is a hometown discount or under market contract. Especially if we have success in the playoffs.

Even $45MM probably puts him outside the top 15 QB salaries once all the off season moves are done.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

When looking at a potential contract for Russ, the biggest factor in comparison is age. Of the top 10 cap hits, there are only two 30 year olds (Prescott 31, Goff 30). You have to get to #12, Kirk Cousins at 36 (same age as Wilson) for a true peer comparison. After that, there are a few guys like Stafford, Rodgers, Carr, Geno etc. Cousins signed for 4 years, $180M, $45M avg, $90M guaranteed, and he signed last season.

Using that as a basis, I can see true comparative value being 3 years, $141M, $47M avg, $70M guaranteed. This is one less year to adjust for age at signing, and a slight increase due to inflation of cap. I could see Russ playing for a bit less due to situation - he feels the redemption of being picked up off the scrap hear, he loves the team, he loves the coaching, and he sees the chance to win.

I'd put a new deal around 3 years, $120-125M with about half guaranteed.

[Captain Lemming]

I said when we signed him Russ I think he committed to us long term verbally. I think this is partly why Toulon was so committed to him. He will not pursue what he can make on the open market, destroying our cap in the process.

Russ is playing for legacy at this point. He is not going to walk to a worse situation for an extra 10 million per after his experience in Denver. He is on a team that won with KENNY. His next stop would not be as favorable.

Russ has ALREADY been paid more than all but a couple of players in league history. He will die a wealthy man if he doesn’t make another dime. Even an under market for his abilities is REAL MONEY.

This fit is perfect to assure his HOF legacy which is more valuable than a level of pay difference that will mean little in his standard of living.

[Northern_Blitz]

Writeup pretty much sums it up well. Wilson is playing better than other big FA QBs like Cousins, Rodgers, Carr.

Though the Steelers might swallow a bit hard at $40-45M.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/598...rs-free-agent/

I think it's probably toward the higher end of this range. He'd probably do even better as a UFA because teams are stupid for QBs.

He's currently making $39MM IIRC (which was fully guaranteed?). And that deal was signed a while ago and there has been lots of cap inflation since then.

There are currently 9 QBs making > $50MM. And 13 $45MM+.

I don't know what QBs will get extended next year, but if he does $45MM that might even put him outside of the top 15. Which is probably still a home town discount. Just like Stafford taking a $40MM AAV contract was a home town discount in 2022. But the total cap is up sharply since then. And my guess is that over time we see more and more cap% go to QBs.

[Northern_Blitz]

I do not want the Steelers to give Wilson a 3 or 4 year deal. 2 years as of right now? Yes

Who knows what the cap will be in 2027 and 2028? The way I see it we are in a win now mode.

I'm not sure you understand what I was saying.

A 4 year deal for 2 years is better than a 2 year deal for 2 years. I'd rather have real years (even with artificially high salaries) than dummy years. Because it at least gives the team the option to retain the player.

This reduces the cap hit in the first 2 years.

Which lets you have a better team in that "win now" window you're talking about. Because you can spend more on other players around the QB. This is especially true in year 1 where the cap hit is usually quite low on long deals because you can drive the salary toward the minimum but the player still gets a ton of cash through the SB. The benefit from doing this decreases as the deal gets shorter.

The limit on this is 5 years because you can't spread the cap hit from the SB over more than 5 years.

[NorthCoast]

Writeup pretty much sums it up well. Wilson is playing better than other big FA QBs like Cousins, Rodgers, Carr.

Though the Steelers might swallow a bit hard at $40-45M.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5982787/2024/12/10/russell-wilson-contract-steelers-free-agent/