Wilson 2025 Contract Offer

[Northern_Blitz]

Even going into the season, just not getting your ass handed to you in the WC round was a low goal, and I guarantee nobody in the org thought that. What we’re getting is what they envisioned.

My guess is that everyone in the organization thought that...but just wouldn't say it publicly.

Going into the season:

• Vegas line for over/under was one that would miss the playoffs
• Big question mark at QB
• High likelihood that we'd play Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, or Stroud on the road in WC game if we did make the playoffs.

I think it's interesting how people believe the press conferences every year when they say that their goal is to with the SB. I mean, I guess that's technically true. But it's not their expectation.

If I had to bet, I'd bet that we'll end up playing Baltimore in the playoffs. Either at home or on the road.

If we lost that game it would suck.

But it wouldn't be some crazy surprise.

I get that we're currently the 3rd seed in the conference. But there are so many good teams in the AFC that it wouldn't be surprising if we end up being a slight favorite or underdog in WC weekend.

And while the end result would be the same as last year, there would still be obvious improvement in the team.

[WindyCitySteel]

My guess is that everyone in the organization thought that...but just wouldn't say it publicly.

Going into the season:

• Vegas line for over/under was one that would miss the playoffs
• Big question mark at QB
• High likelihood that we'd play Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, or Stroud on the road in WC game if we did make the playoffs.

I think it's interesting how people believe the press conferences every year when they say that their goal is to with the SB. I mean, I guess that's technically true. But it's not their expectation.

If I had to bet, I'd bet that we'll end up playing Baltimore in the playoffs. Either at home or on the road.

If we lost that game it would suck.

But it wouldn't be some crazy surprise.

I get that we're currently the 3rd seed in the conference. But there are so many good teams in the AFC that it wouldn't be surprising if we end up being a slight favorite or underdog in WC weekend.

And while the end result would be the same as last year, there would still be obvious improvement in the team.

If the Steelers organization made all those moves just to keep a 2 v. 7 playoff game closer, then this is a failed organization. Surely you can’t believe that. They know the D stars are aging and they need to win now.

BTW, I applauded them then and still do now for re-doing the entire QB room, attempting to rebuild the OL, and getting Queen.

[Northern_Blitz]

If the Steelers organization made all those moves just to keep a 2 v. 7 playoff game closer, then this is a failed organization. Surely you can’t believe that. They know the D stars are aging and they need to win now.

BTW, I applauded them then and still do now for re-doing the entire QB room, attempting to rebuild the OL, and getting Queen.

What are "all these moves"?

Giving up on Kenny? He lost the job to Mason (by a clear margin IMO). Who probably isn't a starting NFL QB.

Trading a conditional 6th for Fields? The price was essentially zero. A good bet. But one no one else in the league wanted to make.

Signing Wilson for vet minimum while Denver picks up the tab? Again zero risk. With a desperate need at QB.

We made multiple low cost bets with high upside.

Even if those bets pan out (and I think they both did), we will have the 3rd best QB in the division. And probably something like the 7th - 10th best QB in the conference (Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud, Herbert). In the first link Google gave me for preseason AFC QB ranking, they also have Rodgers, Lawrence, Tua, Watson, and Richardson ahead of Wilson. Not sure we'd say that any of those guys are better than Wilson in the present.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/afc-qb-rankings-2024/

This wasn't some kind of all out "win now" type off season.

The stakes will likely be much higher next year. Because I think this offseason is going to be very expensive. Although in traditional Steelers fashion, it will be because we sign our own guys to big deals.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Totally agree. We haven’t had anything close to competent QB play for four years. Now that we do, we just let that walk away?

I really think some “fans” want this team to fail

Wison seems to be on track for a 2 year deal of 40+ million year. Do not give an older player a long term deal.

[Northern_Blitz]

Wison seems to be on track for a 2 year deal of 40+ million year. Do not give an older player a long term deal.

The problem with doing a 2 year deal like this is that you can only spread the cap hit from the signing bonus (which will be substantial) over 2 years.

I think it's usually better on big deals to do a 4 or 5 year deal where everyone knows the player is likely to get cut / retire before the end of the deal.

Especially since you can retire / cut them after Jun 1 so the dead money gets split up over 2 more years.

Let's imagine that you sign a player to a 4 year deal instead of a 2 year deal. And let's say that the SB is $40MM (not a prediction or anything, just easy math).

In your 2 year deal, the SB has a cap hit of $20MM in each of the two years.

But in a 4 year deal, the SB has a cap hit of $10MM in each of the 4 years.

If the player is cut / retires May 25th after year 2, then you'd take $20MM in dead money in "year 3". That's the cap hit from the SB that was supposed to be $10MM each year in years 3 and 4.

But, if the player is cut / retires on Jun 2 after year 2, then you take $10MM in dead money in "year 3" and "year 4".

This is what teams who are trying to "win now" do. Really, all teams do this. But "win now" teams push cap hit like this more than teams that are rebuilding (or teams like the Steelers that try to be consistently competitive).

The benefit for the win now team is that you get a high talent to cap hit ratio in the present. The downside is that you will get a low (to very low) talent to cap hit ratio later because you'll have tons of dead money when the "window" closes.

The Steelers strategy is to always be doing this somewhat, but never a ton*. That way, we can be consistently competitive. The Steelers strategy is to get to the playoffs a lot. Because anything can happen in single game elimination tournaments. There's a reason they are tied for the most SBs. This strategy works well over big sample sizes.

Aside: I love that we stayed away from restructuring Watt on this deal. The team wasn't good enough to be in win now mode and we avoided the problem we had with Ben's contract where he had the biggest cap hit in the league (before final restructure / extension) because of all the cap we kicked down the road.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

The problem with doing a 2 year deal like this is that you can only spread the cap hit from the signing bonus (which will be substantial) over 2 years.

I think it's usually better on big deals to do a 4 or 5 year deal where everyone knows the player is likely to get cut / retire before the end of the deal.

Especially since you can retire / cut them after Jun 1 so the dead money gets split up over 2 more years.

Let's imagine that you sign a player to a 4 year deal instead of a 2 year deal. And let's say that the SB is $40MM (not a prediction or anything, just easy math).

In your 2 year deal, the SB has a cap hit of $20MM in each of the two years.

But in a 4 year deal, the SB has a cap hit of $10MM in each of the 4 years.

If the player is cut / retires May 25th after year 2, then you'd take $20MM in dead money in "year 3". That's the cap hit from the SB that was supposed to be $10MM each year in years 3 and 4.

But, if the player is cut / retires on Jun 2 after year 2, then you take $10MM in dead money in "year 3" and "year 4".

This is what teams who are trying to "win now" do. Really, all teams do this. But "win now" teams push cap hit like this more than teams that are rebuilding (or teams like the Steelers that try to be consistently competitive).

The benefit for the win now team is that you get a high talent to cap hit ratio in the present. The downside is that you will get a low (to very low) talent to cap hit ratio later because you'll have tons of dead money when the "window" closes.

The Steelers strategy is to always be doing this somewhat, but never a ton*. That way, we can be consistently competitive. The Steelers strategy is to get to the playoffs a lot. Because anything can happen in single game elimination tournaments. There's a reason they are tied for the most SBs. This strategy works well over big sample sizes.

Aside: I love that we stayed away from restructuring Watt on this deal. The team wasn't good enough to be in win now mode and we avoided the problem we had with Ben's contract where he had the biggest cap hit in the league (before final restructure / extension) because of all the cap we kicked down the road.

I do not want the Steelers to give Wilson a 3 or 4 year deal. 2 years as of right now? Yes

Who knows what the cap will be in 2027 and 2028? The way I see it we are in a win now mode.

[feltdizz]

3 year deal gives us the flexibility of cap space. The numbers feed his ego but we can get out of it year 3 with a smaller hit if needed.

[NorthCoast]

Writeup pretty much sums it up well. Wilson is playing better than other big FA QBs like Cousins, Rodgers, Carr.

Though the Steelers might swallow a bit hard at $40-45M.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5982787/2024/12/10/russell-wilson-contract-steelers-free-agent/

[Northern_Blitz]

I do not want the Steelers to give Wilson a 3 or 4 year deal. 2 years as of right now? Yes

Who knows what the cap will be in 2027 and 2028? The way I see it we are in a win now mode.

I'm not sure you understand what I was saying.

A 4 year deal for 2 years is better than a 2 year deal for 2 years. I'd rather have real years (even with artificially high salaries) than dummy years. Because it at least gives the team the option to retain the player.

This reduces the cap hit in the first 2 years.

Which lets you have a better team in that "win now" window you're talking about. Because you can spend more on other players around the QB. This is especially true in year 1 where the cap hit is usually quite low on long deals because you can drive the salary toward the minimum but the player still gets a ton of cash through the SB. The benefit from doing this decreases as the deal gets shorter.

The limit on this is 5 years because you can't spread the cap hit from the SB over more than 5 years.

[Northern_Blitz]

Writeup pretty much sums it up well. Wilson is playing better than other big FA QBs like Cousins, Rodgers, Carr.

Though the Steelers might swallow a bit hard at $40-45M.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/598...rs-free-agent/

I think it's probably toward the higher end of this range. He'd probably do even better as a UFA because teams are stupid for QBs.

He's currently making $39MM IIRC (which was fully guaranteed?). And that deal was signed a while ago and there has been lots of cap inflation since then.

There are currently 9 QBs making > $50MM. And 13 $45MM+.

I don't know what QBs will get extended next year, but if he does $45MM that might even put him outside of the top 15. Which is probably still a home town discount. Just like Stafford taking a $40MM AAV contract was a home town discount in 2022. But the total cap is up sharply since then. And my guess is that over time we see more and more cap% go to QBs.

[Captain Lemming]

I said when we signed him Russ I think he committed to us long term verbally. I think this is partly why Toulon was so committed to him. He will not pursue what he can make on the open market, destroying our cap in the process.

Russ is playing for legacy at this point. He is not going to walk to a worse situation for an extra 10 million per after his experience in Denver. He is on a team that won with KENNY. His next stop would not be as favorable.

Russ has ALREADY been paid more than all but a couple of players in league history. He will die a wealthy man if he doesn’t make another dime. Even an under market for his abilities is REAL MONEY.

This fit is perfect to assure his HOF legacy which is more valuable than a level of pay difference that will mean little in his standard of living.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

When looking at a potential contract for Russ, the biggest factor in comparison is age. Of the top 10 cap hits, there are only two 30 year olds (Prescott 31, Goff 30). You have to get to #12, Kirk Cousins at 36 (same age as Wilson) for a true peer comparison. After that, there are a few guys like Stafford, Rodgers, Carr, Geno etc. Cousins signed for 4 years, $180M, $45M avg, $90M guaranteed, and he signed last season.

Using that as a basis, I can see true comparative value being 3 years, $141M, $47M avg, $70M guaranteed. This is one less year to adjust for age at signing, and a slight increase due to inflation of cap. I could see Russ playing for a bit less due to situation - he feels the redemption of being picked up off the scrap hear, he loves the team, he loves the coaching, and he sees the chance to win.

I'd put a new deal around 3 years, $120-125M with about half guaranteed.

[Northern_Blitz]

I said when we signed him Russ I think he committed to us long term verbally. I think this is partly why Toulon was so committed to him. He will not pursue what he can make on the open market, destroying our cap in the process.

Russ is playing for legacy at this point. He is not going to walk to a worse situation for an extra 10 million per after his experience in Denver. He is on a team that won with KENNY. His next stop would not be as favorable.

Russ has ALREADY been paid more than all but a couple of players in league history. He will die a wealthy man if he doesn’t make another dime. Even an under market for his abilities is REAL MONEY.

This fit is perfect to assure his HOF legacy which is more valuable than a level of pay difference that will mean little in his standard of living.

$40MM - $45MM/year is a hometown discount or under market contract. Especially if we have success in the playoffs.

Even $45MM probably puts him outside the top 15 QB salaries once all the off season moves are done.

[NorthCoast]

I said when we signed him Russ I think he committed to us long term verbally. I think this is partly why Toulon was so committed to him. He will not pursue what he can make on the open market, destroying our cap in the process.

Russ is playing for legacy at this point. He is not going to walk to a worse situation for an extra 10 million per after his experience in Denver. He is on a team that won with KENNY. His next stop would not be as favorable.

Russ has ALREADY been paid more than all but a couple of players in league history. He will die a wealthy man if he doesn’t make another dime. Even an under market for his abilities is REAL MONEY.

This fit is perfect to assure his HOF legacy which is more valuable than a level of pay difference that will mean little in his standard of living.

Maybe so. But his agent gets paid based on the contract value and I'm sure he will be whispering in Wilson's ear about the money Russ could make elsewhere. Russ might be enjoying his time here but there are really no long-term relationships keeping him here. Some team will offer him stupid money. They always do. Fortunately, at least one stupid team is off the market for him.

[Northern_Blitz]

Maybe so. But his agent gets paid based on the contract value and I'm sure he will be whispering in Wilson's ear about the money Russ could make elsewhere. Russ might be enjoying his time here but there are really no long-term relationships keeping him here. Some team will offer him stupid money. They always do. Fortunately, at least one stupid team is off the market for him.

Would his wife might also benefit from living in a big market? I don't know much / anything about her.