We have a QB problem brewing.

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Northern_Blitz
    Legend
    • Dec 2008
    • 23260

    #46
    Originally posted by WindyCitySteel

    That's living in your fears. Also, not every fumble is 100% on Fields, you know that but your anti-Windy agenda makes you post things you don't really believe.

    The Steelers always play for 3 and hope for 6. How many throws into the EZ this year? I'll bet you could count them on one hand. They hope a player breaks a tackle but don't want to risk anything bad happening.
    It's living in the statistical reality that Fields has probably something close to double the chances of any other QB in the league at fumbling. So it's not crazy to play it safe or 3rd and 10 and take the points.

    And where have I ever said that every fumble is on Fields? This has never been my point. Aside: Also, one of the fumbles I talked about was on Pickens. And a lot of that is on coaching because he does that stick the ball out one handed thing way too often.

    But you keep throwing that out that not all of the fumbles are on Fields to try to run cover for him. The problem is that not every fumble by every other QB is also 100% on the QB.

    This is a bit like Pickett. Yes it was true that he was in a bad offense. But when you have the worst TD% since the single-wing offense was popular, you aren't good. Just like when Fields at a rate that far exceeds other QB's in recent history, it's not just bad luck!

    I'd guess that he fumbles at a rate that's between 50% and 100% more than average QBs that get to start for 3-4 consecutive years. Over a large number of games. It's not just bad luck.

    Again, my guess is that Fields has the worst fumbles/game of any QB in a long time. Let's randomly say since UFA started (1993), that's ~ 30 years.

    I didn't check every QB in the last 30 years, but I did look at the QBs with the most fumbles in history (top 10). And I couldn't find anyone even close. Most were around 0.5 / game. Maybe there was a 0.7 - 0.75 fumbles / game in there? My guess is that anyone else that fumbles this much doesn't get this many starts. Because turnovers are only second to score in importance.

    But Fields has amazing athleticism, so the Bears were always hoping that he'd be able to fix the fumbles.

    I want him to work out too. But like Kenny, I want to see it before i believe it.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 10-13-2024, 02:07 PM.

    Comment

    • Chucktownsteeler
      Legend
      • May 2008
      • 6636

      #47
      There was a QB from Seattle years back that would fumble, was it Roger Kraig?
      Help me find my post proving I am a Yinzer!

      Comment

      • NorthCoast
        Legend
        • Sep 2008
        • 25382

        #48
        Originally posted by Northern_Blitz

        It's living in the statistical reality that Fields has probably something close to double the chances of any other QB in the league at fumbling. So it's not crazy to play it safe or 3rd and 10 and take the points.

        And where have I ever said that every fumble is on Fields? This has never been my point. Aside: Also, one of the fumbles I talked about was on Pickens. And a lot of that is on coaching because he does that stick the ball out one handed thing way too often.

        But you keep throwing that out that not all of the fumbles are on Fields to try to run cover for him. The problem is that not every fumble by every other QB is also 100% on the QB.

        This is a bit like Pickett. Yes it was true that he was in a bad offense. But when you have the worst TD% since the single-wing offense was popular, you aren't good. Just like when Fields at a rate that far exceeds other QB's in recent history, it's not just bad luck!

        I'd guess that he fumbles at a rate that's between 50% and 100% more than average QBs that get to start for 3-4 consecutive years. Over a large number of games. It's not just bad luck.

        Again, my guess is that Fields has the worst fumbles/game of any QB in a long time. Let's randomly say since UFA started (1993), that's ~ 30 years.

        I didn't check every QB in the last 30 years, but I did look at the QBs with the most fumbles in history (top 10). And I couldn't find anyone even close. Most were around 0.5 / game. Maybe there was a 0.7 - 0.75 fumbles / game in there? My guess is that anyone else that fumbles this much doesn't get this many starts. Because turnovers are only second to score in importance.

        But Fields has amazing athleticism, so the Bears were always hoping that he'd be able to fix the fumbles.

        I want him to work out too. But like Kenny, I want to see it before i believe it.
        I don't know why it's so hard to understand. Fields' hand size is in the 15th %tile of all QBs that have appeared in the combine. It makes a difference.

        Comment

        • Northern_Blitz
          Legend
          • Dec 2008
          • 23260

          #49
          Originally posted by Chucktownsteeler
          There was a QB from Seattle years back that would fumble, was it Roger Kraig?
          On PFR, I found a Roger Craig who was a QB for the 9ers in the 80s (then had 1 year with the Raiders and 2 with MIN).

          Had 42 fumbles total in 133 starts. 37 with 116 starts in SFO.

          The guy I thought of was McNabb. My friend in HS was an Eagles fan and I'd always make fun of small hands McNabb and the fumbles. 95 fumbles in 167 games.

          Maybe another running QB?
          • Jackson: 57 in 82 starts.
          • Kordell: 44 in 87 starts (and probably had more QB snaps in non-starts than a lot of guys)
          • Vick: 98 in 115 starts
          • Russ (also gets sacked a bunch?): 103 in 188 starts
          • I thought Derek Carr would be a good bet because he just got destroyed behind that Houston line. 71 fumbles in 79 starts.

          Wait...I found one!

          Dante Culpepper had 102 fumbles in 100 starts (105 games).

          Fields is not the most prolific fumbler of guys who had 40+ starts! Culpepper has 1.02 fumbles / start compared to Fields (who after today has 38 fumbles in 39 starts 0.97 fumbles / game)!

          There may be more. But I doubt there are many.
          Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 10-13-2024, 08:11 PM.

          Comment

          • hackjam
            Starter
            • Sep 2021
            • 819

            #50
            Originally posted by hackjam
            I don't see how starting Russell Wilson gets you anything at this point. He's a known commodity and has very clearly regressed from his peak in Seattle. It's not like this team is winning a championship. Too many issues. You have to make a call on whether you keep Fields or move on at EOY. Might as well continue that evaluation process.
            JK, all in on Russ!!

            Comment

            • Captain Lemming
              Legend
              • Jun 2008
              • 15960

              #51
              Originally posted by Northern_Blitz

              On PFR, I found a Roger Craig who was a QB for the 9ers in the 80s (then had 1 year with the Raiders and 2 with MIN).

              Had 42 fumbles total in 133 starts. 37 with 116 starts in SFO.

              The guy I thought of was McNabb. My friend in HS was an Eagles fan and I'd always make fun of small hands McNabb and the fumbles. 95 fumbles in 167 games.

              Maybe another running QB?
              • Jackson: 57 in 82 starts.
              • Kordell: 44 in 87 starts (and probably had more QB snaps in non-starts than a lot of guys)
              • Vick: 98 in 115 starts
              • Russ (also gets sacked a bunch?): 103 in 188 starts
              • I thought Derek Carr would be a good bet because he just got destroyed behind that Houston line. 71 fumbles in 79 starts.

              Wait...I found one!

              Dante Culpepper had 102 fumbles in 100 starts (105 games).

              Fields is not the most prolific fumbler of guys who had 40+ starts! Culpepper has 1.02 fumbles / start compared to Fields (who after today has 38 fumbles in 39 starts 0.97 fumbles / game)!

              There may be more. But I doubt there are many.
              Roger Craig was a running back, not a QB. Those were the great 80s Niner teams with Montana, Rice, Lott, etc. Surprised you don’t know him. Either young or took up football recently?
              sigpic



              In view of the fact that Mike Tomlin has matched Cowhers record I give him the designation:

              TCFCLTC-
              The Coach Formerly Considered Less Than Cowher

              Comment

              • Northern_Blitz
                Legend
                • Dec 2008
                • 23260

                #52
                Originally posted by Captain Lemming

                Roger Craig was a running back, not a QB. Those were the great 80s Niner teams with Montana, Rice, Lott, etc. Surprised you don’t know him. Either young or took up football recently?
                Grew up in Canada.

                Didn't really follow the NFL until early 90s (transition from Noll to Cowher).

                Also...don't know how I didn't notice that he was a RB on the PFR page...feels shame.
                Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 10-21-2024, 09:46 AM.

                Comment

                • Chucktownsteeler
                  Legend
                  • May 2008
                  • 6636

                  #53
                  Originally posted by Captain Lemming

                  Roger Craig was a running back, not a QB. Those were the great 80s Niner teams with Montana, Rice, Lott, etc. Surprised you don’t know him. Either young or took up football recently?
                  The fumbling QB is Dave Krieg, not Roger Craig.

                  I think he had small hands.
                  Help me find my post proving I am a Yinzer!

                  Comment

                  • Northern_Blitz
                    Legend
                    • Dec 2008
                    • 23260

                    #54
                    Originally posted by Chucktownsteeler

                    The fumbling QB is Dave Krieg, not Roger Craig.

                    I think he had small hands.
                    175 starts (213 games). 153 fumbles. 0.87 fumbles / game. Not good.

                    Comment

                    • Chucktownsteeler
                      Legend
                      • May 2008
                      • 6636

                      #55
                      Originally posted by Northern_Blitz

                      175 starts (213 games). 153 fumbles. 0.87 fumbles / game. Not good.
                      Yes, not good at all.
                      Help me find my post proving I am a Yinzer!

                      Comment

                      • steeler_fan_in_t.o.
                        Legend
                        • May 2008
                        • 9811

                        #56
                        Originally posted by Northern_Blitz

                        On PFR, I found a Roger Craig who was a QB for the 9ers in the 80s (then had 1 year with the Raiders and 2 with MIN).

                        Had 42 fumbles total in 133 starts. 37 with 116 starts in SFO.

                        The guy I thought of was McNabb. My friend in HS was an Eagles fan and I'd always make fun of small hands McNabb and the fumbles. 95 fumbles in 167 games.

                        Maybe another running QB?
                        • Jackson: 57 in 82 starts.
                        • Kordell: 44 in 87 starts (and probably had more QB snaps in non-starts than a lot of guys)
                        • Vick: 98 in 115 starts
                        • Russ (also gets sacked a bunch?): 103 in 188 starts
                        • I thought Derek Carr would be a good bet because he just got destroyed behind that Houston line. 71 fumbles in 79 starts.

                        Wait...I found one!

                        Dante Culpepper had 102 fumbles in 100 starts (105 games).

                        Fields is not the most prolific fumbler of guys who had 40+ starts! Culpepper has 1.02 fumbles / start compared to Fields (who after today has 38 fumbles in 39 starts 0.97 fumbles / game)!

                        There may be more. But I doubt there are many.
                        Roger Craig was a RB. The QB in Seattle was Dave Kreig IIRC.
                        http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/k...to_Mike/to.jpg

                        Comment

                        • NorthCoast
                          Legend
                          • Sep 2008
                          • 25382

                          #57
                          Originally posted by NorthCoast
                          Fields is currently 14th in the NFL in composite CPOE+EPA/play average.

                          For reference; Pickett ended the season last year at 37th in the same metric.

                          Oh, and btw, Wilson finished last season at 15th in the same metric. So, would the Steelers be trading one average QB for another in this offense?

                          [url=https://flic.kr/p/2qnevHK][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2qnevHK]QB EPA+CPOE Composite[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr
                          Updated the chart after Russ took over. Quite a bit of movement. Daniels, Purdy, Burrow sliding. Goff rocketing to the top:

                          [url=https://flic.kr/p/2qxUWdf][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2qxUWdf]Composite Expected Points Added + Completion %Over Expected - 2024 Season[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

                          Comment

                          • hawaiiansteel
                            Legend
                            • May 2008
                            • 34524

                            #58
                            Fields vs Russ:

                            Comment

                            • Eich
                              Legend
                              • Jul 2010
                              • 6747

                              #59
                              Originally posted by hawaiiansteel
                              Fields vs Russ:

                              As people often point out, specific stats don't tell the whole story.

                              I'll take the guy who has command of the offense, who can throw the ball with precision and anticipation and makes good use of play action, over the guy with a cannon arm and athletic legs who doesn't have the touch on his throws and who struggles taking snaps under center.

                              Comment

                              • Northern_Blitz
                                Legend
                                • Dec 2008
                                • 23260

                                #60
                                Originally posted by Eich

                                As people often point out, specific stats don't tell the whole story.

                                I'll take the guy who has command of the offense, who can throw the ball with precision and anticipation and makes good use of play action, over the guy with a cannon arm and athletic legs who doesn't have the touch on his throws and who struggles taking snaps under center.
                                I agree that Russ should be the starter.

                                I think it does show that we're in a very strong position re: depth though. At minimum a top 3 backup in the league IMO.

                                Comment

                                Working...