Is Harris a bottom 8 starting running back? I think he is.

[Mr.wizard]

Correction, you mean 75% of the games Harris not a 4.3 years per rush in his career. Meanwhile half of the NFL starting backs 4.3 this year.

Now I'm too busy to count so there is some room to play gotcha.

Well again if you could exercise a little reading comprehension you would realize I don't care about YPC, I don't know how many different ways to say it. If Najee can destroy your ypc narrative in 3 games it isn't that strong to begin with.

[NorthCoast]

I said it in the game thread. Harris, at times, struggles with his vision on where the creases are in the rush lanes. There are cutbacks he just doesn't see, or doesn't take. The play where he ran smack dab into the back of the TE blocking was awful when you consider he could have had a huge gain just by running right or left of him. The other habit that popped up again yesterday was the stutter step at the line. It completely stops his momentum and makes it so much easier for the defense. Najee is best when he one cuts and goes. There is no doubt he runs hard. He is safe with the ball. But there is working harder, and there is working smarter. A 32% rush success rate for Harris isn't something to write home about against a defense that was suppose to struggle against the run.
The back half of this schedule will tell the team a lot about whether Harris is worth a new contract, and how much.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I said it in the game thread. Harris, at times, struggles with his vision on where the creases are in the rush lanes. There are cutbacks he just doesn't see, or doesn't take. The play where he ran smack dab into the back of the TE blocking was awful when you consider he could have had a huge gain just by running right or left of him. The other habit that popped up again yesterday was the stutter step at the line. It completely stops his momentum and makes it so much easier for the defense. Najee is best when he one cuts and goes. There is no doubt he runs hard. He is safe with the ball. But there is working harder, and there is working smarter. A 32% rush success rate for Harris isn't something to write home about against a defense that was suppose to struggle against the run.
The back half of this schedule will tell the team a lot about whether Harris is worth a new contract, and how much.

Solid info.

[feltdizz]

Well you keep bringing up ypc too me which I have repeatedly said is a foolish way to judge running backs. Also as far as a big play runner, he already is that by NFL standards, if you are using 15+ or even 20+ yard runs he is near the top of the league every year. If you want to move it to 40+ yard runs which are rare for every back then so be it, but it isn't a metric I care a lot about. For example, Warren I think we both agree has the capability for 40+ yard runs, he has 1 in 3 years 280 something carries and 40 games.

lmao.. like I said, they are slaves of the ypc.

no matter how many times he says he understands your position, he keeps ignoring it and reverting back to ypc.

[Northern_Blitz]

Well you keep bringing up ypc too me which I have repeatedly said is a foolish way to judge running backs. Also as far as a big play runner, he already is that by NFL standards, if you are using 15+ or even 20+ yard runs he is near the top of the league every year. If you want to move it to 40+ yard runs which are rare for every back then so be it, but it isn't a metric I care a lot about. For example, Warren I think we both agree has the capability for 40+ yard runs, he has 1 in 3 years 280 something carries and 40 games.

YPC is a proxy for long runs. Which is the thing I think you believe that Najee can deliver at a good rate in the future even though there isn't much evidence. Originally I was in the camp that the reason that he doesn't get these kind of runs is that he isn't fast. But if you would prefer to call that something like "not great open field running" that's fine too.

The thing about YPC is that guys don't get their average every carry. And the single number makes us lose a bunch of data.

I bet if you look at the "mode" or running plays they are probably similar for most starting caliber RBs.

And the guys who have high YPCs probably have a similar "mode", but have a long tail of long runs in their distribution so that their YPC goes up.

Najee had a YPC of 2.5 on 21 carries yesterday. If we add one 40 yard carry, his YPC would be 4.2. And that one carry would be almost as many yards as the rest of his night (53 yards).

I don't think the concept is difficult. Just like I don't think it's hard to see that he's not going to suddenly become good at these long runs after this long in the league. As Lemming said much earlier in this thread, I think we probably agree about just about everything else re: Najee.

[feltdizz]

more ypc references.. lmao.

[Northern_Blitz]

If you'd like to argue that success rate is better than YPC, I'd agree with you. It's nice that these are on PFR now!

Let's take a look.

As shown below, Najee has a below average at success rate, but escapes the arbitrary 8th worst cutoff in the title of the thread.

Najee's success rate this year is 46.3%. Good for 31st in the league. There are 5 QBs ahead of him. So that brings up up to 26th. 5 RBs ahead of him have fewer than 75 carries. So that's 21st. Below average, but above Joel's bottom 8 cutoff.

In 2023, Najee was 27th overall (48.2%). 4 QBs ahead of him, so that's 23rd. 3 RBs ahead of him had fewer than 125 carries (including Warren at 124), so that's 20th. Again, below average but above Joel's bottom 8 cutoff.

Note: PFR defines success rate as: Getting 40% of required yards on 1st, 60% on 2nd, and 100% on 3rd or 4th.

[Northern_Blitz]

more ypc references.. lmao.

I guess I just missed you with the success rate post. I think the low success rate numbers might actually be a bigger reason for not signing him than the speed. I expected him to be higher here. And I think he was higher in success rate early last season (in the post Lemming brought up).

Najee is also below average in success rate over the last two years.

And he's worse so far this season when compared to last year. Although there's lots of time left this season for numbers to change.

But he's not quite in the bottom 8, so I guess that's something.

Is there any rate based stat that puts Najee in something like the top 10? His super power is that he can survive a large volume of carries (and doesn't fumble). And that he's at least OK in just about everything.

I think the low YPC tells us that he doesn't get big runs.

It's more concerning that he has a low success rate. Because this is kind of the thing he's supposed to be good at IMO. My guess is that the low success rate is the thing NC was talking about upthread re: vision issues / running into the backs of OL.

So I guess you could say it's: YPC, success rate, rate of 10+ yard runs, rate of 20+ yard runs, rate of 30+ yard runs, rate of 40+ yard runs.

My guess is that Najee will be below average on just about any rate stat you want to pick. Because he gets his numbers through volume. He's consistently average-ish at most things. And he doesn't get hurt. It's impressive that he was able to come back in yesterday after Warren fumbled. My guess is that the plan was to ride out the rest of the game with Warren before the fumble. Man...it's too bad he fumbles so much.

Najee's superpower is to be able to survive that kind of volume in the NFL (which is very impressive IMO).

[Mr.wizard]

YPC is a proxy for long runs. Which is the thing I think you believe that Najee can deliver at a good rate in the future even though there isn't much evidence. Originally I was in the camp that the reason that he doesn't get these kind of runs is that he isn't fast. But if you would prefer to call that something like "not great open field running" that's fine too.

The thing about YPC is that guys don't get their average every carry. And the single number makes us lose a bunch of data.

I bet if you look at the "mode" or running plays they are probably similar for most starting caliber RBs.

And the guys who have high YPCs probably have a similar "mode", but have a long tail of long runs in their distribution so that their YPC goes up.

Najee had a YPC of 2.5 on 21 carries yesterday. If we add one 40 yard carry, his YPC would be 4.2. And that one carry would be almost as many yards as the rest of his night (53 yards).

I don't think the concept is difficult. Just like I don't think it's hard to see that he's not going to suddenly become good at these long runs after this long in the league. As Lemming said much earlier in this thread, I think we probably agree about just about everything else re: Najee.

That is exactly my point about ypc, one run can change it drastically, but if your going to do it for long runs then you have to do it for short yardage runs. If 4 or 5 of his runs are in short yardage or goaline situations then it skews his ypc in the other direction, which is why I don't really care about it. Now that Patterson is back and Warren is healthy Najee was pretty much getting carries in our Jumbo set, which I said was killing him at the beginning of the year. As soon as those guys were out he started to eat because teams couldn't key on him because he was on the field in various situations and formations.

[Northern_Blitz]

I said it in the game thread. Harris, at times, struggles with his vision on where the creases are in the rush lanes. There are cutbacks he just doesn't see, or doesn't take. The play where he ran smack dab into the back of the TE blocking was awful when you consider he could have had a huge gain just by running right or left of him. The other habit that popped up again yesterday was the stutter step at the line. It completely stops his momentum and makes it so much easier for the defense. Najee is best when he one cuts and goes. There is no doubt he runs hard. He is safe with the ball. But there is working harder, and there is working smarter. A 32% rush success rate for Harris isn't something to write home about against a defense that was suppose to struggle against the run.
The back half of this schedule will tell the team a lot about whether Harris is worth a new contract, and how much.

And while he success rate was bad in the single game yesterday, he has a below average success rate over long stretches.

I did the last two seasons, then stripped out QBs and guys with fewer than 125 carries (or 75 carries so far this year).

I'll just give the raw rank for his 2nd year and rookie season here:

2nd year: 41st (46.0%)
1st year: 33rd (47.6%)

My guess is that will put him in the mid to late 20s both of these years. Maybe even low 30s in 2nd year...but he was playing hurt that year, which is why I think he's below his career numbers in most things that season.

[Northern_Blitz]

That is exactly my point about ypc, one run can change it drastically, but if your going to do it for long runs then you have to do it for short yardage runs. If 4 or 5 of his runs are in short yardage or goaline situations then it skews his ypc in the other direction, which is why I don't really care about it. Now that Patterson is back and Warren is healthy Najee was pretty much getting carries in our Jumbo set, which I said was killing him at the beginning of the year. As soon as those guys were out he started to eat because teams couldn't key on him because he was on the field in various situations and formations.

I think success rate gets rid of your issues with YPC (but doesn't care about long runs). It's a better metric, but I don't think public data has been available until recently (fall of last year for PFR apparently).

Najee is below average there too. Pretty similar ranking to YPC. But maybe for different reasons? Low YPC is telling us that he doesn't get the big runs. Low success rate is maybe telling us about what NC (and Ramon Foster) have said about him not having the vision / decision making to find the hole if it isn't where it's "supposed" to be?

He escapes the bottom 8 in both metrics in the last 2 seasons.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I think success rate gets rid of your issues with YPC (but doesn't care about long runs). It's a better metric, but I don't think public data has been available until recently (fall of last year for PFR apparently).

Najee is below average there too. Pretty similar ranking to YPC. But maybe for different reasons? Low YPC is telling us that he doesn't get the big runs. Low success rate is maybe telling us about what NC (and Ramon Foster) have said about him not having the vision / decision making to find the hole if it isn't where it's "supposed" to be?

I settle for him being a below average starting back with a ton of metrics backing it up.

[Northern_Blitz]

I settle for him being a below average starting back with a ton of metrics backing it up.

I think over long periods (like an NFL contract), he's probably average to slightly above average.

Because of the durability, the versatility, and ball security (things that don't really show up in the stats).

[feltdizz]

That is exactly my point about ypc, one run can change it drastically, but if your going to do it for long runs then you have to do it for short yardage runs. If 4 or 5 of his runs are in short yardage or goaline situations then it skews his ypc in the other direction, which is why I don't really care about it. Now that Patterson is back and Warren is healthy Najee was pretty much getting carries in our Jumbo set, which I said was killing him at the beginning of the year. As soon as those guys were out he started to eat because teams couldn't key on him because he was on the field in various situations and formations.

$$$$ post.

[Northern_Blitz]

$$$$ post.

What do you think about the success rate data?

Which ranks Najee in the same place, but doesn't have the issues Wizard brings up in this post.

If we want to use baseball analogies:

• The YPC data suggests he's not a home run hitter.
• And the success rate data suggests he doesn't have a particularly good on base percentage either.