Is Harris a bottom 8 starting running back? I think he is.

[NorthCoast]

Najee caught the ball a ton with Fitchner and Ben at QB.

With Trubisky and Pickett at QB they struggled to throw dump offs.

We also gave 3rd down responsibilities to Warren because Najee had a high touch rate his rookie year.

Warren got 3rd downs because he was a much better runner after the catch.

This is the first season where Najee has broken the 8 yd/rec barrier (this is the threshold where RBs get paid big), so big improvement.

[Northern_Blitz]

Are you really trying to suggest QB’s running when defenders have their back turned is the same as running when 11 guys are facing a RB?!

Cmon dude.. lol

A 34 year old QB that basically didn't play with 9 rushing attempts. I get that the situations aren't the same...but we're not talking about Lamar here.

Najee has had almost 1000 carries in the NFL (970). You'd think in that time he would have had at least a couple of plays with good blocking where he could get over 40 yards, right?

If he was going to get big runs at any kind of appreciable rate, it would have happened by now.

It's not who he is.

Anyone expecting him to go somewhere else and suddenly start racking up big plays is kidding themselves IMO. You never know, 00 does come up on the roulette wheel sometimes. But I wouldn't bet on it.

[Northern_Blitz]

Warren got 3rd downs because he was a much better runner after the catch.

This is the first season where Najee has broken the 8 yd/rec barrier (this is the threshold where RBs get paid big), so big improvement.

I agree that Warren is probably better at running after the catch / in open space. And I think that's why he's more likely to deliver bigger plays than Najee (although as I've said, I think Najee has played his best football over the last three weeks).

I think it's also because Warren is very good at pass protection. Najee is also good at this, but I think not as good as Warren. I honestly think Warren's pass pro is the reason that Tomlin finally gave in to the time share idea.

Re: Big Improvement. Maybe (hopefully).

But I think it's not unreasonable to expect a reversion to the mean here either. Especially since a couple of plays can skew the average when the sample is 17 receptions.

Right now, that 32 yard gain (which I think is Najee's best open field run in the NFL) will have less and less weight in the average the more receptions he gets. He also had a 32 yard reception last season.

Although he only ended up with 29 receptions last year, so who knows.

Hopefully this isn't the case and he takes one to the house for 60+ and blows up his average!

[Northern_Blitz]

You have to have at least 125 carries to qualify for the explosive run rate and it's based off of 10+ yard runs.

Explosive runs are judged different by different places I believe.

But...if we want to use this criteria (125 carries 10+ yards), the data from that fantasy pros site Najee will be no where near 4th in 10+ yard run rate for guys with 125+ carries. Below, I only looked at 18 / 41 guys with 125 carries. In that group, we see Najee's no better than 15th. My guess is that he's mid-20s if we look at all 41 qualifying backs.

In 2023, he was tied for 10th at 10+ yard runs with 24 (tied with 2 other backs...Walker and Warren).

Everyone on the list that is tied or above him for 10+ yard runs has more than 125 carries. Only Joe Mixon has more carries than Najee (257 vs 255). Mixon also had more 10+ yard runs (27), so his rate of 10+ yard runs is also higher than Najees (10.5% vs 9.4%).

Guys he was tied with both had fewer carries, so their 10+ yard run rate was also higher than Najee's (e.g. Warren @ 16.1%).

So at best Najee would be 13th in 10+ yard run rate. But likely lower since there are 41 guys that qualify with 125+ carries. I'll just pull the 5 guys with the fewest number of qualifying carries:

• Miles Sanders 11/129 = 8.5% (doesn't beat Najee)
• Khalil Herbert 13/132 = 9.8% (does beat Najee)
• Kareem Hunt 5/135 = 3.7% (doesn't beat Najee)
• Aaron Jones 15/142 = 10.6% (does beat Najee)
• Dameon Pierce 9/145 = 6.2% (doesn't beat Najee)

So that pushes Najee down to at least 15th in the metric that you want to use. Likely lower Since there are another 20-something guys we didn't test yet. My guess is that he'll be mid-20s in 10+ yard run rate...but I don't want to check all the numbers and it won't let me just copy the table to do the math.

The thing he was 4th in (which I think you're referencing) was the number of 20+ yard runs. This is a threshold that some places use for explosive runs. And it's impressive that Najee got 8 of these last season.

He won't be 4th in the rate list of these. Which is fine.

Just pointing out that I think what you mean is that he was 4th in explosive runs (defined at 20+ yard runs).

[Northern_Blitz]

I didn't look too hard at this year's numbers but...Najee is t12 with 15x 10+ yard runs. His rate of 10+ runs this season is 11.0% (better than his full season last year!).

He has the most carries of the 3 backs he's tied with, so those three guys all have a better rate than he does.

4/6 guys above him in number of 10+ yard runs have fewer carries than he does. So they all have a better rate than he does.

6 guys have more carries and more 10+ yard runs.

• Barkley 14.6% (better)
• Connor 15.0% (better)
• Henry 12.5% (better)
• Jacobs 12.6% (better)
• Pollard 12.7% (better)
• Kamara 10.7% (worse)

So of the 14 guys with as many or more 10+ yard rushes as Najee, he ranks 13/14 this season in 10+ yard run rate. All of these playes have at least 103 carries so far.

[Northern_Blitz]

Let me clarify that I don't think he thinks najee is terrible. My point has always been about Najee's ability. There has always been a narrative that Najee can't be efficient because he is too slow. I think Najee has clearly shown that he can be efficient and he is not too slow. That narrative is wrong, that is my only point. He keeps trying to change my argument to who he ranks higher then or whether najee is average or above average, both are subjective.

The only think I'd quibble with here is the use of the word efficient.

That is not the point I'm making (now or in the post from Lemming).

In fact in the old post (in the first 7 pages), I went out of my way to talk about Najee having a good run success rate at the time. That's the metric I think of when I think "efficiency" for RBs.

My point is that Najee isn't fast, which means he can't deliver the big game breaking plays that are the reason that RBs get paid / retained / not thrown on the scrap pile.

I also don't think it's subjective that Najee is around average. I just made a couple posts showing that Najee is average (to maybe below average?) in the 10+ yard run rate that you were thinking he was 4th best in the league at (in 2023 and so far in 2024).

My guess is that the only objective measurement that doesn't show that is games played over his career to date. He's been elite at staying healthy enough to play. Which is a good super power to have. But my guess is that most teams won't pay for it because it's likely not a repeatable thing over a 2nd contract.

Also...looking through these numbers makes me sad that we couldn't keep Conner healthy when he was here.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Yep. Durability is Najee's super power.

Unfortunately for him, it's not a trait that pays at the highest level.

To be paid at the hightest level a man must be healthy and very good.

[Ghost]

Interesting tid-bit in The post-gazette today. A question about letting Conner go at 25 and then using a 1st rounder on a RB.

They would have been just fine at that position if they had kept him.

Conner has carved out a high-quality NFL career. He just keeps going. He was also better here than people gave him credit for, with nearly 3,300 scrimmage yards and 26 touchdowns in just three full seasons (and even those were somewhat compromised by injury).
Now look: With 10 more touchdowns, Conner will reach 75 and will have passed up the likes of Cliff Branch, Larry Csonka, A.J. Green, Jamaal Charles, Roger Craig and Earl Campbell. How about that?

He is currently 6^th in rushing in the NFL.

[Northern_Blitz]

Interesting tid-bit in The post-gazette today. A question about letting Conner go at 25 and then using a 1st rounder on a RB.

They would have been just fine at that position if they had kept him.

Conner has carved out a high-quality NFL career. He just keeps going. He was also better here than people gave him credit for, with nearly 3,300 scrimmage yards and 26 touchdowns in just three full seasons (and even those were somewhat compromised by injury).
Now look: With 10 more touchdowns, Conner will reach 75 and will have passed up the likes of Cliff Branch, Larry Csonka, A.J. Green, Jamaal Charles, Roger Craig and Earl Campbell. How about that?

He is currently 6^th in rushing in the NFL.

It would have been a heck of a gamble though.

He just wasn't durable when he was here.

But like Najee, he seems to be a good guy, so I'm happy for him and his success.

[NorthCoast]

McCaffrey is a beast.. but he also plays in an offense that has some legit playmakers that put stress on the defense.

I think its odd that Steeler fans watched this offense with CANADA and still talk like Najee was getting the same opportunities as a Chubb or McCaffrey.

There hasn’t been ANY success with our players on offense the last few years and we all know why.

I'm not even thinking about CMC. RBs that are good in the run and pass are guys like Hall, Robinson, Kamara, Jones.... Some of these guys are on teams that are not offensive juggernauts.

[Northern_Blitz]

I'm not even thinking about CMC. RBs that are good in the run and pass are guys like Hall, Robinson, Kamara, Jones.... Some of these guys are on teams that are not offensive juggernauts.

Weren't you talking about getting the option / 2nd contracts?

Robinson isn't yet eligible, so we don't know what they'll do.

Hall isn't eligible for an option (2nd rounder), we'll see what they do for next year. But if I were them, I wouldn't sign an extension with him this year. My guess is that they are going into a rebuild...although maybe having a competent RB is a good thing if they throw in the towel on Rodgers and draft a QB?

Aaron Jones performance after his 4x$12MM contract has probably helped devalue the RB market. Although he's on track for a good year in MIN if he can stay healthy. A good example of picking up a guy from the scrap heap on a cheap deal. He did get paid a good 2nd contract though.

I like the idea of Kamara's current deal as well. Short duration to limit risk, but still pretty good money for the player.

[Northern_Blitz]

Explosive runs are judged different by different places I believe.

But...if we want to use this criteria (125 carries 10+ yards), the data from that fantasy pros site Najee will be no where near 4th in 10+ yard run rate for guys with 125+ carries. Below, I only looked at 18 / 41 guys with 125 carries. In that group, we see Najee's no better than 15th. My guess is that he's mid-20s if we look at all 41 qualifying backs.

In 2023, he was tied for 10th at 10+ yard runs with 24 (tied with 2 other backs...Walker and Warren).

Everyone on the list that is tied or above him for 10+ yard runs has more than 125 carries. Only Joe Mixon has more carries than Najee (257 vs 255). Mixon also had more 10+ yard runs (27), so his rate of 10+ yard runs is also higher than Najees (10.5% vs 9.4%).

Guys he was tied with both had fewer carries, so their 10+ yard run rate was also higher than Najee's (e.g. Warren @ 16.1%).

So at best Najee would be 13th in 10+ yard run rate. But likely lower since there are 41 guys that qualify with 125+ carries. I'll just pull the 5 guys with the fewest number of qualifying carries:

• Miles Sanders 11/129 = 8.5% (doesn't beat Najee)
• Khalil Herbert 13/132 = 9.8% (does beat Najee)
• Kareem Hunt 5/135 = 3.7% (doesn't beat Najee)
• Aaron Jones 15/142 = 10.6% (does beat Najee)
• Dameon Pierce 9/145 = 6.2% (doesn't beat Najee)

So that pushes Najee down to at least 15th in the metric that you want to use. Likely lower Since there are another 20-something guys we didn't test yet. My guess is that he'll be mid-20s in 10+ yard run rate...but I don't want to check all the numbers and it won't let me just copy the table to do the math.

The thing he was 4th in (which I think you're referencing) was the number of 20+ yard runs. This is a threshold that some places use for explosive runs. And it's impressive that Najee got 8 of these last season.

He won't be 4th in the rate list of these. Which is fine.

Just pointing out that I think what you mean is that he was 4th in explosive runs (defined at 20+ yard runs).

I took the 5 minutes to see where Najee falls.

Assuming I entered all the numbers correctly (wouldn't let me copy), he's 24th on the list for 10+ yard running rate of the 41 qualified RBs @ 125 carries. If we go to 100+ carries, he falls to 28th.

Does it change your opinion at all when it turns out that the stat you suggested shows that he's 24th in the league instead of 4th? It pains me to say this, because 24th is eerily close to Joel's 8th worst ranking...and I don't think that's true (I think he's probably something like top 15).

Of course that's not quite true because our backup is much better than Najee in this metric. And I do believe that Warren should be the ~40 in our ~60 / ~40 split.

[WindyCitySteel]

I don’t know about Achane, but McCaffery and Connors are not as durable as Najee. Not even close.

Connors? Did he play for Cower or Knoll? Went to school with Jack Hamm, I think?

[hawaiiansteel]

Connors? Did he play for Cower or Knoll? Went to school with Jack Hamm, I think?

Steel Maniac used to always call him Chuck Knoll.

He sure knew his Steelers history!

Boom..........

Hahahahahahaha

[NorthCoast]

From another board poster. Kinda explains why it took time for Smith to adjust his offense to Harris' limitations.

It also seems like Smith understands the calls for this personnel. Typically he is a heavy outside zone scheme. Harris struggled with that as he wasn't able to press the butt of the playside OT while making the reads and then being able to make 1 cut to the backside if needed. Just not his game. Smith bas switched to more mid-zone and inside zone. This is allowing Harris to keep his shoulders square to the line, read the flow and make easier cuts. To Harris' credit he has also been in his bag with his ability to read the flow of the defense in these zone runs.

Running inside should get even better with Frazier returning.