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Ranking NFL MVP candidates, awards picks through Week 9 of 2023
Most Valuable Player
1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Jackson is getting plenty of help from his defense, and we still need him to stay healthy deep into December and January after missing most of those months in 2021 and 2022 with injuries. Just based off the first half of the season, though, I believe he's the one left standing and the best player in football through two months.
As a passer, Jackson has made major strides. He leads the league in completion percentage (71.5%) despite throwing downfield at one of the highest rates. He averages a league-high 10.2 yards per throw off play-action, and he has picked apart defenses dominating in the intermediate zone. On throws traveling 11 to 20 yards in the air, his 94.4 QBR is the second-best mark in football, trailing only Herbert's. He ranks third in QBR under pressure.
And as a runner, Jackson hasn't lost much off his peak. He is running for a league-high 48.9 yards per game, which tops all quarterbacks. His 32 first downs is second only to Hurts, who has the benefit of steadily operating a play that generates free first downs about 95%of the time. Jackson's 19 runs of 10 or more yards is by far the most of any passer in the league. He ran for 47 gains of 10-plus yards in his MVP campaign, and no other quarterback in recent memory has topped 33 such runs in a single campaign. He's on pace for 36 this season.
Jackson has also been just slightly better at protecting the football and avoiding drive-stalling plays than his Eagles counterpart. He has taken sacks on 6.8% of his dropbacks, right in line with Hurts' 6.2%. The big difference is Hurts has thrown eight interceptions to Jackson's three, albeit with 52 more pass attempts. They each have two fumbles, although Hurts has lost both of his fumbles, while Jackson has not. With Jackson coming in as a more effective runner and protecting the ball as well as any other quarterback, his all-around game leaves me to pick him No. 1 here.
Is that enough to propel Jackson to the MVP title? Probably not. MVPs typically need to win their division, if not claim the top seed in their conference. That'll be easier said than done in a white-hot AFC North, where all four teams won their games this weekend. Jackson has been let down at times by drops, and even he has gone through stretches when it felt as if Baltimore was caught playing with its food before losing in frustrating fashion to the Colts and Steelers, but there's no perfect candidate right now. Jackson has minimized mistakes, improved as a passer, kept a lot of what people liked about him as a runner and made enough big plays to win each week. That's enough to be in the lead for the MVP balloting.
Most Valuable Player
1. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Jackson is getting plenty of help from his defense, and we still need him to stay healthy deep into December and January after missing most of those months in 2021 and 2022 with injuries. Just based off the first half of the season, though, I believe he's the one left standing and the best player in football through two months.
As a passer, Jackson has made major strides. He leads the league in completion percentage (71.5%) despite throwing downfield at one of the highest rates. He averages a league-high 10.2 yards per throw off play-action, and he has picked apart defenses dominating in the intermediate zone. On throws traveling 11 to 20 yards in the air, his 94.4 QBR is the second-best mark in football, trailing only Herbert's. He ranks third in QBR under pressure.
And as a runner, Jackson hasn't lost much off his peak. He is running for a league-high 48.9 yards per game, which tops all quarterbacks. His 32 first downs is second only to Hurts, who has the benefit of steadily operating a play that generates free first downs about 95%of the time. Jackson's 19 runs of 10 or more yards is by far the most of any passer in the league. He ran for 47 gains of 10-plus yards in his MVP campaign, and no other quarterback in recent memory has topped 33 such runs in a single campaign. He's on pace for 36 this season.
Jackson has also been just slightly better at protecting the football and avoiding drive-stalling plays than his Eagles counterpart. He has taken sacks on 6.8% of his dropbacks, right in line with Hurts' 6.2%. The big difference is Hurts has thrown eight interceptions to Jackson's three, albeit with 52 more pass attempts. They each have two fumbles, although Hurts has lost both of his fumbles, while Jackson has not. With Jackson coming in as a more effective runner and protecting the ball as well as any other quarterback, his all-around game leaves me to pick him No. 1 here.
Is that enough to propel Jackson to the MVP title? Probably not. MVPs typically need to win their division, if not claim the top seed in their conference. That'll be easier said than done in a white-hot AFC North, where all four teams won their games this weekend. Jackson has been let down at times by drops, and even he has gone through stretches when it felt as if Baltimore was caught playing with its food before losing in frustrating fashion to the Colts and Steelers, but there's no perfect candidate right now. Jackson has minimized mistakes, improved as a passer, kept a lot of what people liked about him as a runner and made enough big plays to win each week. That's enough to be in the lead for the MVP balloting.
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