Fantasy Focus: Steelers vs Browns

This week kicks off another entry of our fantasy football prediction blog.  Steelers face off against the 1-4 Cleveland

Browns today at 1pm at Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA.  The Steelers have the opportunity to win its 3^rd straight game against a struggling Cleveland Browns team.  Last week, the Browns somehow pulled out a 6-3 victory against the Buffalo Bills which was one of the most painful games I had to watch in a long time.  Starting Browns quarterback, Derek Anderson went a miserable 2-17 in passing, but somehow the Browns were victorious.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a 28-20 win against the Detroit Lions.  The Steelers offense looked impressive again with Rashard Mendenhall averaging over 5 yards a carry and Ben Roethlisberger distributing the ball nicely to a wide range of his weapons including Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Heath Miller and rookie, Mike Wallace.

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Not so impressive was the Steelers defense.  Again, the defense allowed an inferior team to come back in the first quarter until a streak of sacks by LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison ended the game.  From the defensivie perspective, the good news is that all-pro safety, Troy Polamalu is returning to action for the first time since the season opener against the Tennessee Titans.  The bad news is standout defensive end, Aaron Smith, who is critical to the Steelers 3-4 is out for the rest of the season with a torn rotator cuff.

And now for our Predictions:

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger – Big Ben is off to one of his best starts in his already very successful career from a statistical perspective.  Roethlisberger is 1^st in the league in completion percentage and second in total yards only behind Peyton Manning. Roethlisberger is being considered a league Most Valuable Player (MVP) by most and I expect his numbers to only get better especially against a struggling Browns team.  Big Ben is a strong pickup this week amongst fantasy owners.

Heath Miller – Miller is on pace for his first Pro Bowl appearance and has been exceptional for the Steelers passing game so far this season.  Miller is second on the team with 29 receptions and 235 yards. He also leads the receiving corps with 3 TD’s.  Expect about 60 yards receiving and another touchdown for Heath Miller this week.

Hines Ward – Ward is the Steelers leading receiver thus far this season with 33 receptions and 440 yards receiving.  With Holmes wrist injury continuing to be a nagging problem, Ward will see more balls thrown his way.  However, it’s concerning to fantasy owners that Ward only has 1 touchdown so far this season.  With all things considering Ward is still a good play this week against the Browns.

Rashard Mendenhall – Mendenall has looked real impressive the past couple of weeks with Willie Parker being out due to a turf toe injury.  In two games, Mendenhall is averaging over 5 yards a carry and has 3 touchdowns.  Against the league’s worst running defense Mendenhall is expected to start and will see the majority of all carries with Fast Willie being the change of pace back as he recovers from his injury.

Ben Roethlisberger Jersey
Hines Ward Jersey
Rashard Mendenhall Jersey
Heath Miller Jersey
Santonio Holmes Jersey

Cleveland Browns

Joshua Cribbs – Unfortunately for the Browns, based on their play thus far this season, Cribbs is the only guy I would consider as a fantasy owner this week.  With Braylon Edwards being traded to the Jets, Cribbs should see some increased action as a 3^rd WR.  Aside from that, Cribbs is well known to be an extremely dangerous kick-off returner and has had prior success against the Steelers special teams unit.

Sonny Harris Signed By Steelers

RaShon “Sonny” Harris has been resigned by the Pittsburgh Steelers today after standout DE Aaron Smith was placed on Injured Reserve (IR) after a season ending shoulder injury.  Smith has a torn rotator cuff injury which will require season ending surgery. 

Harris played well during the preseason but he didn’t clear waivers after not making the 53 man roster.  The Carolina Panthers signed Sonny Harris and to the disappointment of Steelers fans, lost a quality youngster at a position that’s lacking depth and youth.  The 6-4 300 pound Oregon defensive end needs a bit of work in the 3-4 but he’s a young project and a welcoming addition to this squad especially after losing Smith.  Harris could project to 3-4 defensive end and actually has the size to be a 3-4 nose tackle with the addition of a few pounds.  With Casey Hampton in the final year of his contract, who knows what could happen but it’s a bit too early to say the late round draft choice from Oregon has the potential to replace “Big Snack”, the Steelers Pro Bowl nose tackle whom has anchored this defense for many years.

Aaron Smith Out For Season

It has been reported that starting d-lineman Aaron Smith will be out for the season due to a shoulder injury sustained against the Detroit Lions.  Smith will undergo season ending shoulder surgery. 

Smith has been long considered one of the most underrated  defensive lineman in the league.  As a 3-4 DE, Smith’s primary responsbility to to take one two blockers which allows the inside linkbackers to run free and make the majority of the tackles.  Unlike a 4-3 DE, Smith rarely get’s the opportunity to sack the quarterback although he’s had 2 sacks thus far this season. 

He’s been a constant on the Steelers d-line that has seen several rankings as the leagues number 1 defense, and also has two Super Bowl rings.

It is expected that a combination of Nick Eason, Travis Kirschke, and rookie first round pick Ziggy Hood will attempt to replace Smith. 

What a devastating loss for an already struggling defense…

Steelers Draft Analysis

For those of you trying to put together a Steelers draft- here’s a couple of things to ponder:

Since being hired in 2000, Kevin Colbert has had 1 OL player drafted in Round 1 (Kendall Simmons 2002). 1 2nd

round pick was used on OL (Marvel Smith (2000). 2 3rd round picks have been spent on OT’s (Starks & Essex), 3 4th rounder’s were spent on OL (Hills, Colon, Nkwenti) & 7 picks spent on OL players beyond the 5th round (Only Kemoeatu & Okobi of any real note). What does it mean? Probably nothing. But it seems that Colbert run organisations place OL value in the middle rounds instead of the high rounds.

You think that this trend only began once he joined the Steelers? He was at the Lions before that- Jeff Hartings being the only 1st round OL & Aaron Gibson the only 2nd round OL to be picked on his watch.

Since 2000, 10 ’skill’ players (RB’s, WR’s, DB’s & QB’s) have been selected in the first 2 rounds. In only 2 years since 2000 have the Steelers NOT spent a top 2 round pick on a ’skill’ position.

Since 2000, 11 LB’s have been selected by the Steelers. Only in 1 year was no LB selected (2006).

Since 2000 only 3 players have been selected on Day 1 (first 3 rounds) that did not play for a good sized foot ball program- Trai Essex (Northwestern), Ben (Miami OH), Ricardo Colclough (Tusculum).  Conversely- 5 FLORIDA STATE players have been selected in the top 3 rounds in that time frame (The highest of all schools for the Steelers). FLORIDA STATE & GEORGIA are the two schools to have the most players selected by the Steelers since 2000 with 5 a piece. TEXAS is 3rd with 3. (This DOES NOT INCLUDE UDFA).

Since 2000 only 2 DL’s have been selected in the first 3 rounds- Casey Hampton in 2001 & Kendrick Clancy in 2000. 9 DL’s have been selected in Colbert’s reign. The latest 2- Ryan McBean in 2007 & Orien Harris in 2006 were both 4th round selections. (To balance this- the DL has been set for the Steelers for some time).

THE BREAKDOWN
Since 2000

QB- 5 selected- 1 1st round pick & 4 5th round picks.

RB- 5 selected- 1 1st round pick, 1 5th round pick & 3 7th round picks.

WR- 9 selected- 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks, 1 3rd round pick, 2 4th round picks, 1 6th round pick & 1 7th round pick.

TE- 5 selected- 1 1st round pick, 1 3rd round pick, 1 5th round pick & 2 6th round picks.

OT- 7 selected- 1 2nd round pick, 2 3rd round picks, 3 4th round picks, 1 6th round pick.

OG- 3 selected- 1 1st round pick, 1 5th round pick, 1 6th round pick.

C- 3 selected- 1 5th round pick & 2 6th round picks.

DT- 3 selected- 1 1st round pick, 1 3rd round pick, 1 7th round pick (Please note- Casey Hampton, selected in 2001, has started for 8 years with Chris Hoke his back-up most of that time- no real ‘need’ for this position).

DE- 6 selected- 2 4th round picks, 2 6th round picks, 2 7th round picks.

OLB- 7 selected- 1 1st round pick, 2 2nd round picks, 1 3rd round pick, 2 5th round picks & 1 6th round pick.

ILB- 4 selected- 1 2nd round pick, 1 4th round pick, 1 5th round pick, 1 6th round pick.

CB- 6 selected- 2 2nd round picks, 1 3rd round pick, 1 4th round pick, 1 5th round pick, 1 7th round pick.

S- 4 selected- 1 1st round pick, 2 3rd round picks & 1 6th round pick.

ST- 1 selected- 1 4th round pick

By Round-
1st round- 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR’s, 1 TE, 1 OG, 1 DT, 1 OLB, 1 S (6 ’skill’, 3 ‘non-skill’)

2nd Round- 2 WR’s, 1 OT, 2 OLB’s, 1 ILB, 2 CB’s (4 ’skill’, 4 ‘non-skill’)

3rd Round- 1 WR, 1 TE, 2 OT’s, 1 DT, 1 OLB, 1 CB, 2 S’s (5 ’skill’, 4 ‘non-skill’)

4th Round- 2 WR’s, 3 OT’s, 2 DE’s, 1 ILB, 1 CB, 1 P (3 ’skill’, 7 ‘non-skill’)

5th Round- 4 QB’s, 1 RB, 1 TE, 1 OG, 1 C, 2 OLB’s, 1 ILB, 1 CB (7 ’skill’, 5 ‘non-skill’)

6th Round- 1 WR, 2 TE, 1 OT, 1 OG, 2 C’s, 2 DE’s, 1 OLB, 1 ILB, 1 CB (4 ’skill’, 8 ‘non-skill’)

7th Round- 3 RB’s, 1 WR, 1 DT, 2 DE’s (4 ’skill’, 3 ‘non-skill’)

You will notice a heavier weighting on ’skilled’ players in the first 3 rounds, while there is a heavier weighting on the ‘non-skill’ players in the middle rounds.

Round 5 is weird- 4 QB’s?? It would seem that Colbert uses Round 5 to grab the ‘BPA’ more often than not, while leaning towards playmakers early & ‘grunts’ in the middle.

This might all mean nothing. After all, the Steelers have been set in many positions that appear to be ‘negleted’ for a number of years (Casey Hampton, Aaron Smith, Marvel Smith, Jerome Bettis, Hines Ward, James Farrior, Alan Faneca, Kendall Simmons, Jeff Hartings, etc)

But then again, if it’s used as a guide to Colbert’s ‘draft weighting’, we might find our guessing to be a little less ‘random’…

Post provided by Chadman at the Planet Steelers Forum

Steelers Defense vs. Kurt Warner

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense will face it’s toughest challenege tomorrow against the Kurt Warner and their loaded-weapons offense.

Pittsburgh’s defense doesn’t exactly match up well against the high-powered Cardinals offense featuring Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Bolder and Steven Breaston.

Kurt Warner will pose a significant challenge against the Steelers.  Why you may ask.  The Steeler defense was ranking #1 in every statistical category but haven’t faced a passing offense like the Cardinals.  However, the Cardinals have not faced a defense even close to the Steelers.  This is a very intriging matchup to say the least.  Warner has the quickest release in football (putside of Tom Brady) which  may neutralize the blitzing of LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison.  Then, if the Steelers send additional blitzers such as Troy Polamalu, Deshea Townsend, Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior then this could expose the secondary.  Kurt Warner has the experience and field vision to find the open receiver and pick the Steelers apart.  Very few quarterbacks we have faced, have the ability to do that; Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Kerry Collins to name a few.  Kerry Collins was very successful against the Steelers being very accurate and having loads of time to throw the ball.  It will be up to the Steelers defense to get to Warner quickly and early to force him into a few quick turnovers.  The New England Patriots gave the Steelers a very good blue print on how to get to Warner.

Expect Dick Lebeau to have a few tricks up his sleeve to make it a miserable day for Warner.  I see the Steelers getting 5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and holding the Cards offense to under 300 yards before becoming the only team in Super Bowl history to have 6 Lombardi Tropheys.

Here We Go Steelers!

ESPN Magazine Steelers D Cover Shoot

The Steelers defense will be featured on the following magazines this week:

1. ESPN

ESPN Magazine is having a story on the Steelers defense. The entire Steelers is on the cover of the magazine (see below).

2. Sports Illustrated

The Sports Illustrated cover features LaMarr Woodley, the Steelers 2^nd year pro, knocking Joe Flacco to the ground. Both of these will make a great addition to your Steelers memorabilia. Be sure to pick up your copies today. Check out a video of the Steelers ESPN cover shoot: