Drafting the Best Player Available at a Position of Need

[Shawn]

Excellent analysis and I think you are close to being right on. Just some thoughts:

1. Agree that the best two players we need will be gone, e.g. Haden, Berry and McClain.

2. The second best ILB, Brandon Spikes, will be available and will rate as a middle Round 1 pick before it is all over and done. So you need to add him as a possibility.

3. This safety class is very deep so while Mays and Thomas will likely be there we could get a safety in Round 2 who will be very good. The real question will be whether the team does or does not plan to move Troy to FS at somepoint in the future. If they do then Mays is the better pick because Thomas could not play SS.

4. Not sure we take a OT in Round 1. Where would he play? Starks is signed long term. The team apparently likes Colon so it only makes sense to take a OT if A) they plan to let Colon leave (unlikely) or B) they want to move Colon inside to Guard (also unlikely since he would resist because Guards get paid less than OT and such an attempt would likely have him leave versus extending). Just don't see OT for #18.

5. I only see DL in Round 1 is they plan a switch to a 4-3 which it appears is not happening. I wouldn't touch Cody because of his weight issues. I think Williams would be overdrafted at #18 and would rate as a mid Round 1 pick only because so many teams are desperate for NTs.

IMO the one wildcard for #18 is CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson. Parker is leaving and Moore is nothing realistically more than a 3rd down back. You need three good backs to be successful in the NFL. It will not be lost on the front office what an impact Percy Harvin had in Minnesota or more importantly what Chris Johnson has done in Tennessee. Spiller will put up great speed numbers and is the perfect change of pace back to Mendenhall. Big advantage over FWP is that Spiller is great as part of the passing game. You also don't have to carry Logan another year. I'm not saying they go this way but it would notblow me away if they did.

I think we need help on defense, but keep in mind that any defensive player you take is unlikely to see the field in 2010 because of the complexity of the defense. If Troy could not get on the field as a rookie with his remarkable skillset what makes you think anyone else will. Same thoughts for drafting an OT. He unlikely would play with Starks and Colon returning.

A player like Spiller would pay you immediate returns as a runner, returner and pass catcher. If you want value in Round 1 you at least have to consider that.

O, this will be one of the rare occasions I disagree with you. Mays is a horrid SS. Yes, he is a freak athlete...yes he has size and speed...and yes he can be a play maker. But, his skill set is better suited for a LB than SS. He would be a piss poor FS. He has very poor coverage skills.

I will agree Spikes needs to be thrown in that list. I also agree that we will not pick an OLman with our #1 unless a freak falls.

As for Cody...why is everyone so concerned about his weight? Williams is also a big man.
Williams is listed at 6 foot 3 316 pounds which put his BMI at 39.5 and Cody is listed at 6 foot 6 365 pounds which puts his BMI at 42.2. Haynesworth BMI is 40.4. That's not a huge difference medically speaking. Both Williams and Cody have been knocked for their conditioning and weight. What guy that plays NT hasn't been knocked for that? It's not like Hampton or Haynesworth are the epitome of fitness. It's a big man's position...and big men need to work harder at conditioning. Cody is a rare talent...with a rare combination of size, strength and quickness. If he is there...it's a no brainer pick.

If I were betting money I would think our reasonable list in order will look like this...

1) Cody
2) Thomas
3) Spikes

My issue with Cody is that in his final 2 years at Alabama he could never make the mandated weight target that Saban set for him to be more than a 2 down player. What does anyone think will actually change in the NFL when he has lots more money (and possibly less motivation) once he gets that big Round 1 payday.

I'd rather get a NT in Round 2-4 and let him OJT behind Hampton who we tag for a year.

Same can be said about Hampton. Hampton had been warned and warned...finally Tomlin was forced to embarass him. Was Hampton lazy? No way...Hampton isn't lazy...he is a big man who likes to eat. And when guys get that big...it's usually more a compulsion to eat. I don't believe that reflects on his work ethic. Will this keep him from being a 3 down DT in the NFL? Maybe...it's hard to say but what I know is this kind of talent at the NT position only comes around so often...and when it does...on the year that your all pro NT is likely to leave or need to be transitioned...you don't pass.

I believe the NT position to be the most dire for us. We have three young guys who will get better at DB. Clark could be signed reasonably...so FS isn't dire. ILB...I'm in favor of Fox getting some serious PT...the guy can play. Our OL has significantly improved. The only place we are close to desperate is NT and an argument can be made at DB.

I'm with Ovi on this one. Cody has not been impressive in the games I have watched. Dan Williams seems to have much better lateral speed and seems to be able to provide a decent pass rush. Cody struggled to find playing time against Texas. He has a lot of potential, but our first round pick needs more than potential.

Neither guy is a stat monster. Cody demands double teams and that's his job...to eat up two linemen. He does that as good as any I have seen.

I think it's a moot point though...I see Cody going higher...Texans?