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Thread: KP vs MR Under Pressure

  1. #1
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    KP vs MR Under Pressure

    Wins Losses (all stats per PFR):

    • when blitzed 10 or more times in a game:
      • KP 3 - 3
      • MR 4 - 3 -1

    • when pressured 20% or more in a game:
      • KP 7 - 7
      • MR 5 - 4

    Also looked at pressure rate vs bad throw %. Rudolph's bad throw rate is nearly double that of Pickett's when pressured:

    [url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzrFj1][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzrFj1]Pickett - BadThr% vs. Press%[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

    [url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzsAsH][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzsAsH]Rudolph - BadThr% vs. Press%[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    Wins Losses (all stats per PFR):

    • when blitzed 10 or more times in a game:
      • KP 3 - 3
      • MR 4 - 3 -1

    • when pressured 20% or more in a game:
      • KP 7 - 7
      • MR 5 - 4

    Also looked at pressure rate vs bad throw %. Rudolph's bad throw rate is nearly double that of Pickett's when pressured:

    [url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzrFj1][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzrFj1]Pickett - BadThr% vs. Press%[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

    [url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzsAsH][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2pzsAsH]Rudolph - BadThr% vs. Press%[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr
    Also, looking at the plot for Pickett there's little correlation between pressure % and bad throw %. Meaning his bad throws come regardless of pressure or not.

  3. #3
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    lmao.. yeah, I’m going to trust your breakdown of this graph. I have no idea wtf I’m looking at to be honest.
    I lost a bet about Najee gaining 1300 yards.

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  4. #4
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    I'm not sure a linear fit of this data is reasonable.

    It's all over the place for both guys and there's no "physical reason" why it should be linear.

    Win loss record that you have here is that basically both are ~ a coin flip to win in either case.

    Edited to add: I think maybe I'd try to bin the points into groups (e.g. 0-5%, 5-10% etc). Then take the averages in each bin (and the standard deviations). Then maybe try to do a linear regression of the data. But I think the punch line here is that you don't have enough data points for the spread of data you have.

    If you calculate the uncertainty in the slopes that you're calculating, it will be large enough that you probably can't differentiate between the two samples.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 02-21-2024 at 06:14 PM.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    I'm not sure a linear fit of this data is reasonable.

    It's all over the place for both guys and there's no "physical reason" why it should be linear.

    Win loss record that you have here is that basically both are ~ a coin flip to win in either case.

    Edited to add: I think maybe I'd try to bin the points into groups (e.g. 0-5%, 5-10% etc). Then take the averages in each bin (and the standard deviations). Then maybe try to do a linear regression of the data. But I think the punch line here is that you don't have enough data points for the spread of data you have.

    If you calculate the uncertainty in the slopes that you're calculating, it will be large enough that you probably can't differentiate between the two samples.
    I get that. Neither QB has much data to massage it further.
    But I agree on win/losses. It's a toss up and supports the idea that neither QB is especially better than the other.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    It's a toss up and supports the idea that neither QB is especially better than the other.
    This is where I am with these two. But Mason had 6 years with the team to get to where he is. Kenny had 2 with the worst coordinator in football to get where he is.

    And for everyone that wants to use the eye test, you have to look at Kenny's time without Canada to compare with Mason's games without Canada.
    Last edited by Eich; 02-21-2024 at 08:04 PM.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    I get that. Neither QB has much data to massage it further.
    But I agree on win/losses. It's a toss up and supports the idea that neither QB is especially better than the other.
    I agree that it's probably true that there isn't much difference between the two. My argument has been that this is a bad sign for Kenny. Because I don't think Mason is a long term starter.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eich View Post
    This is where I am with these two. But Mason had 6 years with the team to get to where he is. Kenny had 2 with the worst coordinator in football to get where he is.

    And for everyone that wants to use the eye test, you have to look at Kenny's time without Canada to compare with Mason's games without Canada.
    Mason has has more time on the roster. But Kenny has more starts.

  9. #9
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    Statistical gobbly goop

    We need to realize that Mason and Kenny are both "bridge" QBs. Neither is the long term answer, but likely both can be an effective game manager if we maintain a strong running game and defense
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  10. #10
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    I'd like to see a chart on the average points per game per each QB and a separate one on how many average punts per game per each QB.

    That would be eye opening.
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