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Thread: KP maybe not as bad as is thought?

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    I agree. Their story seems to not completely jibe with stats out there. Maybe PFF is giving him 'credit' for completions the WR didn't catch?
    Of course they are, how many times do I have to explain this? Dropped passes don't punish the QB in PFF grading, dropped INTs DO.

    Context. I really didn't think this was all that hard to understand but I guess I'm wrong.

  2. #12
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    PFF can be a subjective chuckle at times,

    30-39-360-5-0 earns a 75.1 PFF pass rating
    15-27-168-1-0 earns a 90.9 PFF pass rating

    There are dozens of more examples, but that one speaks for itself. I use them for their in-depth stats, and mostly ignore their funny ratings.

    As for KP, he showed some good things and some bad, which is typical for a rookie. Hopefully he makes some strides in year two.

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by crushedspirit View Post
    PFF can be a subjective chuckle at times,

    30-39-360-5-0 earns a 75.1 PFF pass rating
    15-27-168-1-0 earns a 90.0 PFF pass rating

    There are dozens of more examples, but that one speaks for itself. I use them for their in-depth stats, and mostly ignore their funny ratings.

    As for KP, he showed some good things and some bad, which is typical for a rookie. Hopefully he makes some strides in year two.
    How do you think Mahomes should have graded for his two walking TD passes at the goal line in the Super Bowl?

    Stunning how people can't understand contextual grading vs. FFL counting stat grading.

  4. #14
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    I mean, I'm old enough to remember when Steeler fans were excited about Trubisky because of a fluky 2018 season that saw his counting stats soar while his PFF grade was bottom 3.

    PFF was spot on about Trubisky.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by WindyCitySteel View Post
    How do you think Mahomes should have graded for his two walking TD passes at the goal line in the Super Bowl?

    Stunning how people can't understand contextual grading vs. FFL counting stat grading.
    Nobody can defend how PFF arrives at those numbers posted, and there numerous other examples.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by WindyCitySteel View Post
    The stats are counting stats, which aren't factored into PFF's score. If Kenny throws deep passes that are dropped, he doesn't get punished by PFF like he does by passer rating. If DJ gets tackled at the 1 and then Najee runs the ball in, KP's passer rating suffers.
    But why put them up there? They are the ones choosing to put those 5 stats there. Presumably because they somehow inform their rankings. But in KP's case, the data don't support the rankings (which makes it an interesting case to discuss IMO).

    Although this is only for deep throws, and he did do well there (in limited attempts). I wonder if this is more Pickett or Pickens (who also thrives on the deep passes). Just like I wonder (and I'm sure you've argued) that his struggles with intermediate throws have been due to WRs in part (there was a WR evaluation of Pickett that specifically said he was great deep, but bad intermediate and over the middle).

    Either way, the counting stats are the ones PFF choses to put in there. Maybe it's more clear to those that pay for the site, but I think they should have used their 3 sentences to explain why he's average to well below average in all the stats they chose to post, but they rank him 6th in the league (which seems fairly high IMO).

    Cases like this are when models become interesting IMO.

    But with the info they have here, it's very hard to just believe their subjective evaluation process when it seems to conflict very with the objective stats they post.

    Do they have a similar analysis of players for other air yard distances? My guess is that KP will do fairly well short and long. But be quite poor in intermediate. At least that's been what many of us have been saying since the Steelers were last playing football games.

    Again...I really hope PFF and all the KP boosters on here are 100% right (and are even underestimating how good he'll be).
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 06-06-2023 at 09:39 AM.

  7. #17
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    Some discussion about this here.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by WindyCitySteel View Post
    How do you think Mahomes should have graded for his two walking TD passes at the goal line in the Super Bowl?

    Stunning how people can't understand contextual grading vs. FFL counting stat grading.
    Article has some messed up stuff.

    Example:

    Tua ranked 4th; his "Deep Completion %" = 24.5% which they say was 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, KP had 38.3% deep completion rate and was ranked 30th!?

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    But why put them up there? They are the ones choosing to put those 5 stats there. Presumably because they somehow inform their rankings. But in KP's case, the data don't support the rankings (which makes it an interesting case to discuss IMO).

    Although this is only for deep throws, and he did do well there (in limited attempts). I wonder if this is more Pickett or Pickens (who also thrives on the deep passes). Just like I wonder (and I'm sure you've argued) that his struggles with intermediate throws have been due to WRs in part (there was a WR evaluation of Pickett that specifically said he was great deep, but bad intermediate and over the middle).

    Either way, the counting stats are the ones PFF choses to put in there. Maybe it's more clear to those that pay for the site, but I think they should have used their 3 sentences to explain why he's average to well below average in all the stats they chose to post, but they rank him 6th in the league (which seems fairly high IMO).

    Cases like this are when models become interesting IMO.

    But with the info they have here, it's very hard to just believe their subjective evaluation process when it seems to conflict very with the objective stats they post.

    Do they have a similar analysis of players for other air yard distances? My guess is that KP will do fairly well short and long. But be quite poor in intermediate. At least that's been what many of us have been saying since the Steelers were last playing football games.

    Again...I really hope PFF and all the KP boosters on here are 100% right (and are even underestimating how good he'll be).
    Using PFF's own numbers for deep balls and their 65.1 passer rating means that KP was charged with 4 INTs in addition to the 4 TDs.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    Using PFF's own numbers for deep balls and their 65.1 passer rating means that KP was charged with 4 INTs in addition to the 4 TDs.
    And who knows...maybe it makes sense.

    But there isn't any real discussion about why they rank him so high despite at least some results looking average (at best).

    Maybe there's also some projecting going into the numbers? Like what they think is going to happen next season?

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