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Thread: What's Najee's #s gonna be with new rushing game?

  1. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.wizard View Post
    What's not true?? I said take the total yardage and Td's and Najee has more of both in their first 2 seasons.
    Maybe "not true" is too strong when comparing their first two years. But certainly missing all the context (which I tried to show you by talking about their actual stats in the first two years).

    But I was arguing that Najee had good yardage because of volume which is the reason I don't think his stats will improve all that much this year. He doesn't get.

    Re: Getting numbers as good as Chubbs. Can you show me how that happens without him getting big runs? Or using the same number of big runs that he got at Bama? I just don't think the math comes close to working if they have a similar number of carries.

    This is why I wish they reported standard deviation along with YPC. We'd see that Najee gets 3.8 or whatever with low deviation. Chubb (and other backs that rip off big runs) get 5.0 with a large standard deviation.

    Or why I wish they'd post the median run as well. Because I bet their median runs are similar. But backs like Chubb that get high averages probably have a long tail in their distribution that runs out to those big distances.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 06-02-2023 at 08:00 PM.

  2. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    Maybe "not true" is too strong when comparing their first two years. But certainly missing all the context (which I tried to show you by talking about their actual stats in the first two years).

    But I was arguing that Najee had good yardage because of volume which is the reason I don't think his stats will improve all that much this year. He doesn't get.

    Re: Getting numbers as good as Chubbs. Can you show me how that happens without him getting big runs? Or using the same number of big runs that he got at Bama? I just don't think the math comes close to working if they have a similar number of carries.

    This is why I wish they reported standard deviation along with YPC. We'd see that Najee gets 3.8 or whatever with low deviation. Chubb (and other backs that rip off big runs) get 5.0 with a large standard deviation.

    Or why I wish they'd post the median run as well. Because I bet their median runs are similar. But backs like Chubb that get high averages probably have a long tail in their distribution that runs out to those big distances.
    You are missing the point, let me put it to you in an example that I think will be easy to understand. Barry Sanders was a better running back than Emmitt Smith but stat wise they are comparable. This doesn't mean their stats are exactly the same but they are on the same echelon.

  3. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.wizard View Post
    You are missing the point, let me put it to you in an example that I think will be easy to understand. Barry Sanders was a better running back than Emmitt Smith but stat wise they are comparable. This doesn't mean their stats are exactly the same but they are on the same echelon.
    Sure...both those guys are elite.

    That's the reason I object to you saying that Chubb and Najee are in the same echelon because they get the same number of yards when Najee gets like 70 more carries (which was true for both seasons when they had similar yardage totals). This is what I mean when I say that Najee gets yardage because of volume. Because he needs way more carries to get the same number of yards as elite backs. That's why I think it's unlikely that he gets a big jump in yards (what the OP was about). I don't understand how this is so hard to admit.

    I think Chubb is an elite RB. If not elite, then certainly the next best thing.

    Najee is a good back. But he's not in the same class.

    So while you didn't write the words "I think Najee is elite". Saying "I think there isn't much difference between Najee and Chubb" is essentially the same thing (I assume to many, but maybe just to me).
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 06-02-2023 at 08:12 PM.

  4. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    Sure...both those guys are elite.

    That's the reason I object to you saying that Chubb and Najee are in the same echelon.

    I think Chubb is an elite RB. If not elite, then certainly the next best thing.

    Najee is a good back. But he's not in the same class.

    So while you didn't write the words "I think Najee is elite". Saying "I think there isn't much difference between Najee and Chubb" is essentially the same thing (I assume to many, but maybe just to me).
    Elite not elite is irrelevant, I only said he can reach the same stat levels, what does one being elite and one not being elite have to do with it?

  5. #235
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    you know that old meme maybe from south park? about the guy beating a dead horse? that is what this thread is.

  6. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.wizard View Post
    Elite not elite is irrelevant, I only said he can reach the same stat levels, what does one being elite and one not being elite have to do with it?
    what gets lost in all of this is the OL’s.

    until people admit that our OL is inferior to CLE’s the last 2 years this argument is a waste of time.

    Chubb would not have a bunch of long runs if he ran behind the Steeler OL.
    I lost a bet about Najee gaining 1300 yards.

    "Our head coach has failed to win a playoff game for seven years in a row. His game day strategy, culture of divas, in game decisions, clock management, player evaluation, hires, and affinity with sub par starters at RB, P, and OL are holding the Steelers back. That standard remains the standard"



  7. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    Come on Cap, It was my point before it was yours [edited to add: or at least since I started posting in this thread].

    In just about every post I have on this thread the last paragraph is about how it's OK that he's not elite.

    But some on the thread are saying that he's as good as Chubb. Which is silly (I believe you agree with that).

    It's Joel (not me) that's looking at the same data and saying that we need to make a change. Or that Warren is better. I don't believe either thing is true (but I'll probably be against extending Najee if he doesn't find the ability to make big plays). I think this is likely because Joel didn't like him coming out (I think he wanted Etienne) and I think he tends to stand by his gut reactions on guys.

    I'm saying that he's probably above average, which is good enough (fine as Felt said above). I won't go back and quote all the posts where I say this [edited to add: I did post a lot of them below], but it's probably the last paragraph in most posts I have on this thread.

    And I think you know enough about football that you don't think Mixon is the reason for the Bengals having a good to great offense / winning. He's a part of that, but clearly not the centerpiece.

    If we had Joe Burrow, I think we'd all be even more comfortable with Najee than we are. If Kenny is that good, then we'd have a fine offense with Warren as the starter too (although I believe Najee is the better back by a fair margin). The potential issue here is that we're building the team to be run first (something I don't think anyone accuses the Bengals of being).
    I literally gave my opinion that ?you are close?. That implies a measure of agreement. I have said on this thread I do not think Najee and Chubb are similar.

    I took issue with the idea that you need to be a speedster to be elite. You don?t.

    And backs that gain consistent chunks are most associated with winning.

    We DONT KNOW that Najee cannot be THAT guy.

    Can he be elite? I don?t know, he has never had a good line.

    Terrell Davis ran in the 4.7s at the combine. He is a HOFer who ran behind a great line. Do I think he comes close to his 4.6 ypc average behind our line? Nope.

    Can Najee be just as good?

    Time will tell.

    THAT is all I?m saying, it is too early to place a limiting designation because of a flawed premise that a back needs great speed to be elite.

    That is demonstrably not true.
    Last edited by Captain Lemming; 06-02-2023 at 11:00 PM.




    In view of the fact that Mike Tomlin has matched Cowhers record I give him the designation:

    TCFCLTC-
    The Coach Formerly Considered Less Than Cowher

  8. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzer View Post
    you know that old meme maybe from south park? about the guy beating a dead horse? that is what this thread is.
    You're right Blitzer. I think I'm done with this one.

    Thanks

  9. #239
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joel Buchsbaum View Post
    Right, Harris has lost that new car smell. If he doesn't have a break out season he should be replaced. Show me ONE projected starter in 2023 that averages under 4.0 per carry? There are none. Not one of 31 other teams have a project stating RB below this mark. Show me another good receiving back who average under 6.1 yards a reception? See the problem? Harris career average is 3.9 per rush and 6.1 per catch. Harris numbers in year two took a bit of a dive due to Warren taking away some of his snaps. He is in his prime now.

    IMO Warren is the better player. He has come back bigger, stronger, and quicker. I say he has a chance to take Harris job. Homers such as Feltdizz say the odds of that happening are less than 1 %.

    Wizard focuses on situational football to explain away Harris lack of YPR and YPC achievements, while ignoring other players and trumpets him playing 17 games to barely reach 1,000 yards.
    Let make a list of the top 12 RB's in the NFL. Would Harris rate as elite, very good or good?
    Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in seven years and counting. The earliest will be eight years. Art Rooney II, get a new head coach.

    Our 2024 draft is grade A.

  10. #240
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Lemming View Post
    I literally gave my opinion that ?you are close?. That implies a measure of agreement. I have said on this thread I do not think Najee and Chubb are similar.

    I took issue with the idea that you need to be a speedster to be elite. You don?t.

    And backs that gain consistent chunks are most associated with winning.

    We DONT KNOW that Najee cannot be THAT guy.

    Can he be elite? I don?t know, he has never had a good line.

    Terrell Davis ran in the 4.7s at the combine. He is a HOFer who ran behind a great line. Do I think he comes close to his 4.6 ypc average behind our line? Nope.

    Can Najee be just as good?

    Time will tell.

    THAT is all I?m saying, it is too early to place a limiting designation because of a flawed premise that a back needs great speed to be elite.

    That is demonstrably not true.
    OK

    Last one.

    I think you do need to have breakaway speed in TODAY's NFL.

    Guys like Davis (retired 22 years ago) and Bettis (retired 18 years ago) would not be elite backs in today's NFL IMO. The position has changed.

    I think your example kind of proves that, right? Because you have to go back decades to find a guy who isn't fast that was considered elite.

    And again, the argument that the Bengals have a great offense because they have a RB like Mixon and not because they have a QB like Burrow seems like a pretty big stretch to me.

    Now I'm done. Blitzer's right that writing the same thing over and over is silly. And something I do too often.

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