What's Najee's #s gonna be with new rushing game?

[whisper]

And even if he did run fast on a track one time with a friendly person on the watch, it doesn't show up on the football field.

I think he was legitimately injured. But even if he was only 90%, he must have known that running a 40 would hurt his stock. It's really interesting that a 40 time did show up for him in some places though. I wonder how much pull agents and teams have for getting non-official data out?

I think he was a reasonable pick where we picked him. I think he's a good football player and a good human.

Great, so if we only hired good humans we will be all set for starting that monks' seminary school we've been wanting in Pgh for all this time. Who cares about 40 times, as long as our players are "good humans."

[whisper]

Blocking is a big part of it.

Najee had no problem bouncing outside vs the Bengals for a TD or hitting the hole for a TD on 4th down vs the Browns his rookie year.

He is not going to zig zag through 4 guys for a long TD. That isn’t his game. But if we give him adequate blocking he can get large chunks.

"Large chunks" but nothing large enough to give him a ypc higher than 3.something. OK, then. Meanwhile Chubb and Henry are ripping it up with 5 ypc #s. Both not 1st round picks either.

[Northern_Blitz]

I think you are close but not quite. Spot on about Najee is not that fast. It DOES contribute to his YPC.

However one need not be very fast to be elite, nor does one need to break away routinely.

You can do that by getting chunks consistently. OUR LINE has made that hard no matter the runner in most games (thus modest 1st and 10 numbers) And I would contentd the winningest backs in history were more about that than extreme speed.

I disagree Cap (which I think is fine).

In today's NFL, explosive plays are a really big deal. It's really, really hard to score lots of points when you're forced to go 4 yards at a time because you tend not to get big plays. Maybe the pendulum is swinging back. Scoring was down last year, and defenses seem to keep getting lighter and faster. So maybe Jerome type backs will come back into vogue.But the guys who have thrived in that role also have the ability to take it to the house (most notably D Henry). Henry's probably getting close to the cliff and still ripped off 4 runs over 40: 56, 50, 48, and 41.

Who else do we think is a good back?
- Taylor (long of 66)
- Henry (long of 56)
- Cook (long of 81)
- Chubb (discussed a lot upthread)
- Ekler (72...2 runs over 70)
- Mixon (has 3.9 YPC...long of 40) <-- I think someone upthread said he was a good comp for Najee...probably true from these stats at least. Similar low number of long runs. Similar lower YPC
- Kamara (somewhat similar to Najee...long of 27, YPC 4.0) <-- maybe another comp in terms of stats at this point in his career? Low YPC, low long, good receiver. Like Mixon, he's getting old for a RB with 6 seasons under his belt...Mixon also has 6 seasons.

When we had Bell, I wondered if not having elite speed would make it so that he aged better. I was incorrect.


I think every back we'd consider to be elite over the last 5 years or so had the ability to take it to the house on any given play. There's a list of guys above. Who do you think on that list is elite?

FWP was never elite, but you often remind us how he basically won a SB for us. If Bettis was in on that carry, do we win the game? If it was Najee?

[Steelerphile]

When he "supposedly" ran a 4.45 the blurb also listed him at 232 lbs. The first two seasons with the Steelers he has been over 240 lbs. He clearly needs to lose some of that excess weight. It may look like chiseled muscle but he is not built for optimal speed. Le'Veon reiterated the "Najee should lose weight" in an interview podcast. I have said it which matters little. I'm sure Tomlin has talked to him about it. Najee, I think is a good guy and gives his all for the team, but I also think he is strong willed and doesn't seem open to this idea as much as he should be. I agree with Northern Blitz. the Steelers need more big, explosive runs.

Derrick Henry is definitely an unusual player. I think he is over 250 and still outruns DBs, but Harris doesn't have those jets. Najee is big strong back who is tough durable but I am dubious that the Steelers would pick up his option, if the best apc he can muster is 3.9. I don't compare him to Bettis because Bettis had some years when he averaged up to 4.8 a carry. So his career average came in at 3.9. But if your best season is a 3.9 average, then your career average is going to be 3.4 because as you age the average will go down.

[Steel Maniac]

When he "supposedly" ran a 4.45 the blurb also listed him at 232 lbs. The first two seasons with the Steelers he has been over 240 lbs. He clearly needs to lose some of that excess weight. It may look like chiseled muscle but he is not built for optimal speed. Le'Veon reiterated the "Najee should lose weight" in an interview podcast. I have said it which matters little. I'm sure Tomlin has talked to him about it. Najee, I think is a good guy and gives his all for the team, but I also think he is strong willed and doesn't seem open to this idea as much as he should be. I agree with Northern Blitz. the Steelers need more big, explosive runs.

Derrick Henry is definitely an unusual player. I think he is over 250 and still outruns DBs, but Harris doesn't have those jets. Najee is big strong back who is tough durable but I am dubious that the Steelers would pick up his option, if the best apc he can muster is 3.9. I don't compare him to Bettis because Bettis had some years when he averaged up 4.6 a carry. So his career average came in at 3.9. But if your best season is a 3.9 average, then your career average is going to be 3.4 because as you age the average will go down.

Well, whenever we do draft a new starting RB, I have confidence that Khan & co. are smart enough not to use a first round draft pick on a RB. That's asinine in these modern times.

[hawaiiansteel]

"Large chunks" but nothing large enough to give him a ypc higher than 3.something. OK, then. Meanwhile Chubb and Henry are ripping it up with 5 ypc #s. Both not 1st round picks either.

Derrick Henry said Nick Chubb is the best RB today in the NFL.

that's pretty high praise,

[feltdizz]

I disagree Cap (which I think is fine).

In today's NFL, explosive plays are a really big deal. It's really, really hard to score lots of points when you're forced to go 4 yards at a time because you tend not to get big plays. Maybe the pendulum is swinging back. Scoring was down last year, and defenses seem to keep getting lighter and faster. So maybe Jerome type backs will come back into vogue.But the guys who have thrived in that role also have the ability to take it to the house (most notably D Henry). Henry's probably getting close to the cliff and still ripped off 4 runs over 40: 56, 50, 48, and 41.

Who else do we think is a good back?
- Taylor (long of 66)
- Henry (long of 56)
- Cook (long of 81)
- Chubb (discussed a lot upthread)
- Ekler (72...2 runs over 70)
- Mixon (has 3.9 YPC...long of 40) <-- I think someone upthread said he was a good comp for Najee...probably true from these stats at least. Similar low number of long runs. Similar lower YPC
- Kamara (somewhat similar to Najee...long of 27, YPC 4.0) <-- maybe another comp in terms of stats at this point in his career? Low YPC, low long, good receiver. Like Mixon, he's getting old for a RB with 6 seasons under his belt...Mixon also has 6 seasons.

When we had Bell, I wondered if not having elite speed would make it so that he aged better. I was incorrect.


I think every back we'd consider to be elite over the last 5 years or so had the ability to take it to the house on any given play. There's a list of guys above. Who do you think on that list is elite?

FWP was never elite, but you often remind us how he basically won a SB for us. If Bettis was in on that carry, do we win the game? If it was Najee?

what was the Browns record last year?
What was the Colts record last year?
The Saints record last year?
Tennessee’s record?

None of the RB’s on that list with high YPC’s won a playoff game last year.

Funny enough, the RB with the lowest ypc (Mixon) went the furthest in the playoffs last year.

This focus on ypc totally misses the point on team success.

[feltdizz]

When he "supposedly" ran a 4.45 the blurb also listed him at 232 lbs. The first two seasons with the Steelers he has been over 240 lbs. He clearly needs to lose some of that excess weight. It may look like chiseled muscle but he is not built for optimal speed. Le'Veon reiterated the "Najee should lose weight" in an interview podcast. I have said it which matters little. I'm sure Tomlin has talked to him about it. Najee, I think is a good guy and gives his all for the team, but I also think he is strong willed and doesn't seem open to this idea as much as he should be. I agree with Northern Blitz. the Steelers need more big, explosive runs.

Derrick Henry is definitely an unusual player. I think he is over 250 and still outruns DBs, but Harris doesn't have those jets. Najee is big strong back who is tough durable but I am dubious that the Steelers would pick up his option, if the best apc he can muster is 3.9. I don't compare him to Bettis because Bettis had some years when he averaged up 4.6 a carry. So his career average came in at 3.9. But if your best season is a 3.9 average, then your career average is going to be 3.4 because as you age the average will go down.

its been 2 seasons.

and the first season the OL was terrible. Bettis would’ve averaged 3ypc behind that OL.

Najee is fine.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

When he "supposedly" ran a 4.45 the blurb also listed him at 232 lbs. The first two seasons with the Steelers he has been over 240 lbs. He clearly needs to lose some of that excess weight. It may look like chiseled muscle but he is not built for optimal speed. Le'Veon reiterated the "Najee should lose weight" in an interview podcast. I have said it which matters little. I'm sure Tomlin has talked to him about it. Najee, I think is a good guy and gives his all for the team, but I also think he is strong willed and doesn't seem open to this idea as much as he should be. I agree with Northern Blitz. the Steelers need more big, explosive runs.

Derrick Henry is definitely an unusual player. I think he is over 250 and still outruns DBs, but Harris doesn't have those jets. Najee is big strong back who is tough durable but I am dubious that the Steelers would pick up his option, if the best apc he can muster is 3.9. I don't compare him to Bettis because Bettis had some years when he averaged up 4.6 a carry. So his career average came in at 3.9. But if your best season is a 3.9 average, then your career average is going to be 3.4 because as you age the average will go down.

Right, Harris has lost that new car smell. If he doesn't have a break out season he should be replaced. Show me ONE projected starter in 2023 that averages under 4.0 per carry? There are none. Not one of 31 other teams have a project stating RB below this mark. Show me another good receiving back who average under 6.1 yards a reception? See the problem? Harris career average is 3.9 per rush and 6.1 per catch. Harris numbers in year two took a bit of a dive due to Warren taking away some of his snaps. He is in his prime now.

IMO Warren is the better player. He has come back bigger, stronger, and quicker. I say he has a chance to take Harris job. Homers such as Feltdizz say the odds of that happening are less than 1 %.

Wizard focuses on situational football to explain away Harris lack of YPR and YPC achievements, while ignoring other players and trumpets him playing 17 games to barely reach 1,000 yards.

[Steelerphile]

its been 2 seasons.

and the first season the OL was terrible. Bettis would’ve averaged 3ypc behind that OL.

Najee is fine.

You like Le'veon correct. So is he inaccurate in saying Najee should lose weight to optimize his agility and speed? Would losing weight hurt him? I doubt it. I think it would help and the old argument about how bad the OL was is tired. It was a fair to middling OL. Bettis at his best would have averaged pretty well. They invested a lot into the OL this year, so it should help out the average. We'll see.

[Northern_Blitz]

what was the Browns record last year?
What was the Colts record last year?
The Saints record last year?
Tennessee’s record?

None of the RB’s on that list with high YPC’s won a playoff game last year.

Funny enough, the RB with the lowest ypc (Mixon) went the furthest in the playoffs last year.

This focus on ypc totally misses the point on team success.

I agree with you that QB is more impactful than RB on team success. Especially with the NFL the way it is now with so many advantages to passing that didn't exist a generation ago.

Which is also why I don't think it's a huge deal that Najee is above average rather than elite. Particularly on his current contract.

I guess an example of an exception was Tennesee's deeper playoff runs. Or maybe SF's.

And maybe the unfortunate thing here is that we seem to be trying to build a team where we have the option of the RB being more important than the QB. I think that's probably our best bet given what we currently know about our guys. But for the sake of team success, I hope that KP dramatically improves this year. 2nd year players can go either way IMO.

[Northern_Blitz]

its been 2 seasons.

and the first season the OL was terrible. Bettis would’ve averaged 3ypc behind that OL.

Najee is fine.

I agree with this.

[Captain Lemming]

I disagree Cap (which I think is fine).

In today's NFL, explosive plays are a really big deal. It's really, really hard to score lots of points when you're forced to go 4 yards at a time because you tend not to get big plays. Maybe the pendulum is swinging back. Scoring was down last year, and defenses seem to keep getting lighter and faster. So maybe Jerome type backs will come back into vogue.But the guys who have thrived in that role also have the ability to take it to the house (most notably D Henry). Henry's probably getting close to the cliff and still ripped off 4 runs over 40: 56, 50, 48, and 41.

Who else do we think is a good back?
- Taylor (long of 66)
- Henry (long of 56)
- Cook (long of 81)
- Chubb (discussed a lot upthread)
- Ekler (72...2 runs over 70)
- Mixon (has 3.9 YPC...long of 40) <-- I think someone upthread said he was a good comp for Najee...probably true from these stats at least

You actually HIGHLIGHTED the winningest back on the list as most similar to Najee?

ARE YOU TRYING to make my case in the disguise of an argument.

However one need not be very fast to be elite, nor does one need to break away routinely.

And I would contentd the winningest backs in history were more about that than extreme speed.

[Mr.wizard]

Nobody really knows. Why?
I promise you it ain?t because he runs a 4.4.

My guess. 4.7 or slower and he knows it.

It has to be a number that would have pushed him down in the draft. Very savvy move to not have an official time anywhere.

I don't know watching Harris and Bell highlights, Harris looks faster than Bell or at least as fast.

[Northern_Blitz]

You actually HIGHLIGHTED the winningest back on the list as most similar to Najee?

ARE YOU TRYING to make my case in the disguise of an argument.

Come on Cap, It was my point before it was yours [edited to add: or at least since I started posting in this thread].

In just about every post I have on this thread the last paragraph is about how it's OK that he's not elite.

But some on the thread are saying that he's as good as Chubb. Which is silly (I believe you agree with that).

It's Joel (not me) that's looking at the same data and saying that we need to make a change. Or that Warren is better. I don't believe either thing is true (but I'll probably be against extending Najee if he doesn't find the ability to make big plays). I think this is likely because Joel didn't like him coming out (I think he wanted Etienne) and I think he tends to stand by his gut reactions on guys.

I'm saying that he's probably above average, which is good enough (fine as Felt said above). I won't go back and quote all the posts where I say this [edited to add: I did post a lot of them below], but it's probably the last paragraph in most posts I have on this thread.

And I think you know enough about football that you don't think Mixon is the reason for the Bengals having a good to great offense / winning. He's a part of that, but clearly not the centerpiece.

If we had Joe Burrow, I think we'd all be even more comfortable with Najee than we are. If Kenny is that good, then we'd have a fine offense with Warren as the starter too (although I believe Najee is the better back by a fair margin). The potential issue here is that we're building the team to be run first (something I don't think anyone accuses the Bengals of being).