What's Najee's #s gonna be with new rushing game?

[Northern_Blitz]

Well if you take a look at Chubbs first 2 seasons and Najee's first 2 seasons they are pretty similar. So I don't think it's a stretch that he could put up the same stats as Chubb, healthy with an improved Oline. In fact if you factored in Najee's receiving totals I would guess he probably surpassed Chubb in yardage and TD's, compared to Chubbs first two seasons.

Let's look a little deeper on this claim OK?

What do you think is similar about their first 2 years? Chubb has been 5.0 ypc every year he's been in the league. Harris has been below 4.0 both seasons. Hopefully this changes this year.

In year 1, Harris had 115 more carries than Chubb 1 (307 vs 192) and had 204 more yards (1200 vs 996). That's like if he got 1.8 yards on those extra 115 carries.

In year 2, Chubb had 26 more carried (298, 272) and 460 more yards. That's like if he got 17.7 yards on each of those extra carries.

Harris gets yards because of volume. Chubb gets volume AND big plays.

Harris has been a good RB so far.

Chubb has probably been an elite RB so far. But he's been in it for 5 years, so he'll probably start declining soon.

[Mr.wizard]

Let's look a little deeper on this claim OK?

What do you think is similar about their first 2 years? Chubb has been 5.0 ypc every year he's been in the league. Harris has been below 4.0 both seasons. Hopefully this changes this year.

In year 1, Harris had 115 more carries than Chubb 1 (307 vs 192) and had 204 more yards (1200 vs 996). That's like if he got 1.8 yards on those extra 115 carries.

In year 2, Chubb had 26 more carried (298, 272) and 460 more yards. That's like if he got 17.7 yards on each of those extra carries.

Harris gets yards because of volume. Chubb gets volume AND big plays.

Harris has been a good RB so far.

Chubb has probably been an elite RB so far. But he's been in it for 5 years, so he'll probably start declining soon.

I'm not saying he is at Chubbs level, what I am saying is that he isn't that far off, yes he hasn't been as efficient as Chubb but behind a good O-line and fully healthy I think he could be right there.

[whisper]

Let's look a little deeper on this claim OK?

What do you think is similar about their first 2 years? Chubb has been 5.0 ypc every year he's been in the league. Harris has been below 4.0 both seasons. Hopefully this changes this year.

In year 1, Harris had 115 more carries than Chubb 1 (307 vs 192) and had 204 more yards (1200 vs 996). That's like if he got 1.8 yards on those extra 115 carries.

In year 2, Chubb had 26 more carried (298, 272) and 460 more yards. That's like if he got 17.7 yards on each of those extra carries.

Harris gets yards because of volume. Chubb gets volume AND big plays.

Harris has been a good RB so far.

Chubb has probably been an elite RB so far. But he's been in it for 5 years, so he'll probably start declining soon.

Yea, some sanity and reality are always good to be part of the discussion.

[WindyCitySteel]

I'm not saying he is at Chubbs level, what I am saying is that he isn't that far off, yes he hasn't been as efficient as Chubb but behind a good O-line and fully healthy I think he could be right there.

He doesn't have the extra gear that Chubb has to break long runs. Mixon is a better comp, high end comp would be a guy like Steven Jackson

[Northern_Blitz]

I'm not saying he is at Chubbs level, what I am saying is that he isn't that far off, yes he hasn't been as efficient as Chubb but behind a good O-line and fully healthy I think he could be right there.

They aren't comparable.

Chubb is so much better than Najee has been.

[Northern_Blitz]

He doesn't have the extra gear that Chubb has to break long runs. Mixon is a better comp, high end comp would be a guy like Steven Jackson

I think Bell is the best comp for Najee. Good all around back who doesn't have breakaway speed. But I think the league is already different than it was when Bell played and big plays keep increasing in importance IMO.

Before that, maybe someone like Holmes. Who I think was a highly efficient runner with few long runs. But I don't think the stats were as well kept when he was playing (or if they were I was looking at them much less).

Problem seems to be that some posters read that and think they have to come in and defend his honor or something. Maybe because some other posters seem to make the leap from "he doesn't get big runs" to "he is useless and needs to be replaced ASAP". Both takes are too extreme IMO.

He has been and can continue to be a big reason that we win games by having a high run success rate. But expecting him to suddenly turn into a guy who rips of long runs is unrealistic IMO (just like it was when the same people were saying the same things last offseason). I hope it happens, but I won't be holding my breath.

[Blitzer]

Changing the font on the same question isn't going to change the answer.

Can you post more please. 2 reasons

1. I like your posts.
2. every time I see your name, I think of the wizard. Black Sabbath.

[WindyCitySteel]

I think Bell is the best comp for Najee. Good all around back who doesn't have breakaway speed. But I think the league is already different than it was when Bell played and big plays keep increasing in importance IMO.

Before that, maybe someone like Holmes. Who I think was a highly efficient runner with few long runs. But I don't think the stats were as well kept when he was playing (or if they were I was looking at them much less).

Problem seems to be that some posters read that and think they have to come in and defend his honor or something. Maybe because some other posters seem to make the leap from "he doesn't get big runs" to "he is useless and needs to be replaced ASAP". Both takes are too extreme IMO.

He has been and can continue to be a big reason that we win games by having a high run success rate. But expecting him to suddenly turn into a guy who rips of long runs is unrealistic IMO (just like it was when the same people were saying the same things last offseason). I hope it happens, but I won't be holding my breath.

Bell is a popular comp for a lot of good reasons, but his running style was so different. Unique. Holmes was smaller and shiftier, but a stud. If he was a Cowboy in 1991 instead of Emmitt he might be the all-time rushing leader.

[feltdizz]

Bell is a popular comp for a lot of good reasons, but his running style was so different. Unique. Holmes was smaller and shiftier, but a stud. If he was a Cowboy in 1991 instead of Emmitt he might be the all-time rushing leader.

People need to watch the actual film instead of just comparing stats.

[Captain Lemming]

I said he would have impressive stats. Never said he would have Chubbs numbers.

Read the actual words and stop trying to make things up that weren?t said.

Just admit the truth. He doesn?t invent his own truth. You said he is as good as Chubb just like EVERYONE but him say?s Washington will have more catches than Eric Green.

You think he makes this stuff up out of thin air?

[Joel Buchsbaum]

He doesn't have the extra gear that Chubb has to break long runs. Mixon is a better comp, high end comp would be a guy like Steven Jackson

Right. I been reading that Warren has looked even bigger and more explosive. We are lucky to have him, and don't be shocked if he takes Harris job. He has the accleration and speed combined with good vision to break those long runs.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

I'll give you two reasons why I expect Harris' numbers will be better next season:

1) It was acknowledged earlier in this thread that NH entered the year with a lis franc injury. Obviously we don't know when and how gradually it healed, but let's look at beginning of the year to end of the year, using the bye week as the midpoint. Before the bye, Harris only carried the ball 13.5 times per game (8 games) with a YPC of 3.34. After the bye he averaged 18.2 carries and 4.1 YPC.

2) As the season improved, so did the offense, so did the team. We can argue why...lesser competition, o-line starting to gel, young guys getting settled (including rookie QB), return of Watt improved D which improved team all around etc. Any one of these reasons are likely to continue into 2023. Line should continue to improve as they get used to new system and added key players, rookie QB a year older with full training camp, Watt hopefully stays healthy, and schedule arguably easier but that's an unknown once season starts. I choose to focus mostly on the line improvement. At the very least we expect the left side to be greatly improved. Seumalo alone is a big upgrade over Dotson, and at worst Moore returns and is slightly improved or not at all. Improved line = improved Najee.

As an observation, comparing Najee and scoring through before and after the bye:

Before After
13.5 carries 18.2 carries
3.34 YPC 4.1 YPC
15 PPG 20.9 PPG

FWIW none of these after bye numbers are good, but they noticeably improved from before the bye, for a variety of reasons. Most important is that they are pointing upwards and the focus on improving of the O continued this off-season. Don't know if it will work, but the team is definitely not just standing by and hoping for increased output.

I agree on your points.

The blocking was a little better, and the schedule much softer at the end of the year. Harris " French " foot did not keep him off the feild in the early games. The softer schedule and better blocking helped ALL backs, BUT 4.1 YPC isn't great. Do you agree with my points? I still say some fans are dismissing Warren's contribution which was very good with the smae talent blocking. Even if you cherry pick all of Harris 3rd short attempts of less than 4 yards out his YPC is still weak. That is what Wizzard is hiding behind in a lame attempt to absolve Harris 3.8 YPC which rates LAST in the NFL among all projected 2023 starting backs. Or at the very bottom. Every team has injuries to players BUT out OL didn't.

IMO Harris is not the back the team needs.

[hawaiiansteel]

Right. I been reading that Warren has looked even bigger and more explosive. We are lucky to have him, and don't be shocked if he takes Harris job. He has the accleration and speed combined with good vision to break those long runs.

I would be very surprised.

not gonna happen unless Najee gets injured.

[Mr.wizard]

They aren't comparable.

Chubb is so much better than Najee has been.

Yes they are, Chubb has been good but he isn't on some kind of unattainable level.

[Northern_Blitz]

People need to watch the actual film instead of just comparing stats.

Bell was also a good all around back who didn't get many long runs and got a lot of volume.

That's why they get compared a lot.

Not because of their style.