Lamar signs 5 year extension

[Northern_Blitz]

and NB is wrong. He thinks its better to churn QB’s on rookie deals. No team is going to move on from a QB who can consistently win games and give their team a high probability of making the playoffs every year for the unknown.

And it's the right strategy for having more consistent revenue for the team.

But it's like staying with someone because they're hot even though you know there's things that make it so you don't want to marry them.

[Northern_Blitz]

of course, that's ridiculous.

Chargers aren't going to move on from Justin Herbert and he's never even won a single playoff game yet.

My argument is not that the WILL move on from someone like Herbert (Watson was Herbert before Herbert was).

It's that they SHOULD move on from guys who can't win with the biggest advantage in the NFL.

Things don't get easier for your team when your QB has a market level cap hit.

[feltdizz]

And it's the right strategy for having more consistent revenue for the team.

But it's like staying with someone because they're hot even though you know there's things that make it so you don't want to marry them.

bad analogy. Signing a QB to a huge contract IS a marriage. Every team hopes it will last forever aka 10 years or so and they will have more success/happiness than failure.

Fan talk like championships are easy to come by. A championship is like having a
threesome with 2 of the hottest chicks, the chances are slim to none unless you are THAT DUDE.

[feltdizz]

My argument is not that the WILL move on from someone like Herbert (Watson was Herbert before Herbert was).

It's that they SHOULD move on from guys who can't win with the biggest advantage in the NFL.

Things don't get easier for your team when your QB has a market level cap hit.

Since 1994 only 5 QB’s have won SB’s on rookie contracts.

Brady
Ben
Eli
Wilson
Mahomes

Wentz aslo won one but he was in street clothes.

https://amp.thenewstribune.com/sports/nfl/seattle-seahawks/article272289993.html

[Northern_Blitz]

Let's look at big QB signings of guys who didn't have much success on rookie deals. Tell me which ones you think were good signings:

1. Ryan Tannehill (2nd highest cap hit...bit of a weird path because he did the redemption tour kind of thing...no playoff appearances on his rookie deal).
2. Dak Prescott (4th highest cap hit. 2 playoff appearances and 1 win in first 4 years. So at least he did something on his rookie deal)
3. Jimmy G (5th highest cap hit. Basically didn't play on his rookie deal, but people though he was magic because BB. Despite one person thinking he's elite, has generally been the thing holding the 49ers back).
4. Lamar (6th highest cap hit...tied with Wilson. Had an MVP year. Has struggled in the playoffs since. Team has had big injury issues. So has he.)
5. Jones (8th highest cap hit. 3 years of nothing. But won a playoff game last season).
6. Cousins (9th highest cap hit. Started his career in 2012. First playoff start in 2015. Started 4 playoff games in 11 seasons. Won once).
7. Watson (11th highest cap hit. Put up big numbers on a bad team. Reportedly against a lot of prevent. Commish called him a sexual predator. Won a playoff game on his rookie deal though.)
8. Murray (13th highest cap hit, but only $16M which is probably reasonable. Played in one playoff game. Threw for 137 yards and 2 picks).

If KP only ends up having the kind of success of these guys, then I really hope we don't give him a market level deal (although maybe a deal like Murray's would be OK). Time is ticking on the two players we have that are actually elite. One of them even plays a premium position. I'd rather try to do something with those talented guys than pretend we have the QB position figured out (in the hypothetical situation where KP doesn't have success over the next 3 years...probably 4, because he'll have to really fall on his face not to get the 5th year option IMO and I don't think he'll do that).

But my guess is that the guys on this list will continue to not have success. Paying a guy like a franchise QB doesn't make him a franchise QB. Look at Cousins and Jimmy G.

[Northern_Blitz]

Since 1994 only 5 QB’s have won SB’s on rookie contracts.

Brady
Ben
Eli
Wilson
Mahomes

Wentz aslo won one but he was in street clothes.

https://amp.thenewstribune.com/sport...272289993.html

I don't think you have to win a championship on your rookie deal to deserve a 2nd contract. But you do have to be competitive.

For example, I'd pay Burrow. And the way QB contracts work, he'll be the highest paid guy in the league when he signs.

And I'd feel better about that signing in Cincy than I would about the Rats signing Lamar. Because Burrow led a team to a championship. And he relies on skills that don't seem to decline as quickly with age.

I don't know about Herbert. It would be an easier decision if he played in the NFC IMO. But so far it doesn't really look like he can lead a team to success in a division that has the best QB in the world.

You never though though, Stafford ended up winning. I guess he's the best example of a guy who never did much and then won a championship. But it's because his team gave up on him.

[Northern_Blitz]

This is true.......

Northern_Blitz is one of the posters who've said this repeatedly.

And it's not just me. I think it's the data.

It seems to me that you win (or make the SB) by having (1) an elite QB who won a lot when they were on a rookie deal OR (2) by having a guy on a rookie deal that's at least above average. There are a few exceptions, but I'd rather not pay a QB big money on the hope that you end up being an exception.

Maybe if a real QB middle-class starts happening? There are some hints of that. But it's more about structure than pay. We'll see...

[feltdizz]

I don't think you have to win a championship on your rookie deal to deserve a 2nd contract. But you do have to be competitive.

For example, I'd pay Burrow. And the way QB contracts work, he'll be the highest paid guy in the league when he signs.

And I'd feel better about that signing in Cincy than I would about the Rats signing Lamar. Because Burrow led a team to a championship. And he relies on skills that don't seem to decline as quickly with age.

I don't know about Herbert. It would be an easier decision if he played in the NFC IMO. But so far it doesn't really look like he can lead a team to success in a division that has the best QB in the world.

You never though though, Stafford ended up winning. I guess he's the best example of a guy who never did much and then won a championship. But it's because his team gave up on him.

You would get fired if you moved on from Herbert.

I think making the playoffs more times than not is all you need to do.

and it depends on the org as well. You have been in a playoff drought for 10 years or so.. you damn sure should pay the QB who makes it a few times or finally makes it and wins a game.

[feltdizz]

Let's look at big QB signings of guys who didn't have much success on rookie deals. Tell me which ones you think were good signings:

1. Ryan Tannehill (2nd highest cap hit...bit of a weird path because he did the redemption tour kind of thing...no playoff appearances on his rookie deal).
2. Dak Prescott (4th highest cap hit. 2 playoff appearances and 1 win in first 4 years. So at least he did something on his rookie deal)
3. Jimmy G (5th highest cap hit. Basically didn't play on his rookie deal, but people though he was magic because BB. Despite one person thinking he's elite, has generally been the thing holding the 49ers back).
4. Lamar (6th highest cap hit...tied with Wilson. Had an MVP year. Has struggled in the playoffs since. Team has had big injury issues. So has he.)
5. Jones (8th highest cap hit. 3 years of nothing. But won a playoff game last season).
6. Cousins (9th highest cap hit. Started his career in 2012. First playoff start in 2015. Started 4 playoff games in 11 seasons. Won once).
7. Watson (11th highest cap hit. Put up big numbers on a bad team. Reportedly against a lot of prevent. Commish called him a sexual predator. Won a playoff game on his rookie deal though.)
8. Murray (13th highest cap hit, but only $16M which is probably reasonable. Played in one playoff game. Threw for 137 yards and 2 picks).

If KP only ends up having the kind of success of these guys, then I really hope we don't give him a market level deal (although maybe a deal like Murray's would be OK). Time is ticking on the two players we have that are actually elite. One of them even plays a premium position. I'd rather try to do something with those talented guys than pretend we have the QB position figured out (in the hypothetical situation where KP doesn't have success over the next 3 years...probably 4, because he'll have to really fall on his face not to get the 5th year option IMO and I don't think he'll do that).

But my guess is that the guys on this list will continue to not have success. Paying a guy like a franchise QB doesn't make him a franchise QB. Look at Cousins and Jimmy G.

Ryan Tannehill is meh.. but they did have a number 1 seed one year.

2. Dak hasn?t won much in the playoffs but Dallas hadn?t even sniffed playoff success before him.

3. Jimmy G is injury prone, not a fam of him and he won the lottery but the year he was healthy they made the SB.

4. Lamar has an insane winning percentage in the regular season. If healthy they tend to make the playoffs. Its a fact. I still believe he plays if he wasn?t on a 1 year tag last year. That was a business decision.

5. Jones.. easy contract to get out of after 2 years. Have you watched that team? While I?m not a fan of Jones his WR?s have been TRASH. Dude has to run a lot because he can?t trust his WR?s.

6. Cousins is a fraud

7. I still believe the Browns did Baler dirty. They finally win a playoff game and act like they were SB contenders and Baker blew it for them? The audacity. They were desperate.

8. Murray.. its AZ. Let?s not act like they have a history of success. While he is a mixed bag they won 5 games, 8 games, 11 games his first 3 years.

overall I think half of these were good signings based on the franchises and their history of a lack of success before these QB?

Teams want consistency at QB not a revolving door of QB?s. Hell, if Kenny wins a few playoff games why wouldn?t we extend him at market? Its been a while since we won a playoff game.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

Since 1994 only 5 QB?s have won SB?s on rookie contracts.

Brady
Ben
Eli
Wilson
Mahomes

Wentz aslo won one but he was in street clothes.

https://amp.thenewstribune.com/sport...272289993.html

I think the mistake people make is to assume all quarterbacks are created equal. They are not. Even with *elite* QB, they are not created equal.

There was Tom Brady on a tier alone.
The next tier had Manning, Brees and *maybe* Ben
This was your conversation for the 95% championships for about 15 years.

Beyond that, there were annually 2-3 random guys who would have a good year and pop in and out (Eli, McNabb, Palmer, Hasselbeck, etc)


Today? Contracts have gone so ridiculously high for very average quarterbacks.

Mahomes deserves that kind of money. He's the Brady for this generation.
Burrow is looking to be the Peyton and Josh Allen seems to be the Big Ben... those guys have already earned big paydays and are absolutely contenders annually.
Until someone else steps up, these are the only guys that *I* believe are worth $40M+ per year.

Is it too obvious to call Hurt the McNabb as the rushing QB for the Eagles? Either way, that guy should be upper-middle-class (or lower-upper), but not paid as elite.

I've seen the Vick (Lamar, but without the dog stuff), the Steve McNair (Deshaun Watson)...

The NFL is eventually going to have to do with the QB salaries what they did with the rookie salaries because owners are stupid.

[feltdizz]

I think the mistake people make is to assume all quarterbacks are created equal. They are not. Even with *elite* QB, they are not created equal.

There was Tom Brady on a tier alone.
The next tier had Manning, Brees and *maybe* Ben
This was your conversation for the 95% championships for about 15 years.

Beyond that, there were annually 2-3 random guys who would have a good year and pop in and out (Eli, McNabb, Palmer, Hasselbeck, etc)


Today? Contracts have gone so ridiculously high for very average quarterbacks.

Mahomes deserves that kind of money. He's the Brady for this generation.
Burrow is looking to be the Peyton and Josh Allen seems to be the Big Ben... those guys have already earned big paydays and are absolutely contenders annually.
Until someone else steps up, these are the only guys that *I* believe are worth $40M+ per year.

Is it too obvious to call Hurt the McNabb as the rushing QB for the Eagles? Either way, that guy should be upper-middle-class (or lower-upper), but not paid as elite.

I've seen the Vick (Lamar, but without the dog stuff), the Steve McNair (Deshaun Watson)...

The NFL is eventually going to have to do with the QB salaries what they did with the rookie salaries because owners are stupid.

The cap keeps going up. The new TV deal gives teams more room to manipulate the cap.

What cracks me up is people who argued that QB's make the big bucks for obvious reasons are now arguing that QB contracts are out of hand. I don't think Mahomes will win all the SB's this next decade. Other QB's are going to win a few. It's the next wave of QB's so no reason to get all stingy now.. lol

[NJ-STEELER]

Since 1994 only 5 QB?s have won SB?s on rookie contracts.

Brady
Ben
Eli
Wilson
Mahomes

Wentz aslo won one but he was in street clothes.

https://amp.thenewstribune.com/sport...272289993.html

if we?re counting titles.

then ben did it twice on his first contract.

brady first deal was just 3 years. So 1 title. But his 2nd contract was $7M per.
so 3 titles at a low cap hit

[feltdizz]

if we?re counting titles.

then ben did it twice on his first contract.

brady first deal was just 3 years. So 1 title. But his 2nd contract was $7M per.
so 3 titles at a low cap hit

yes.. this is correct. But it doesn’t really support the argument that teams have a huge advantage simply because they were on rookie deals since 5 SB’s were won by 2 QB’s. The advantage is picking a HOF QB and having the right combination of players. Also helps when you have a tuck rule and a little but of pregame cheating at walk throughs.

[NJ-STEELER]

yes.. this is correct. But it doesn’t really support the argument that teams have a huge advantage simply because they were on rookie deals since 5 SB’s were won by 2 QB’s. The advantage is picking a HOF QB and having the right combination of players. Also helps when you have a tuck rule and a little but of pregame cheating at walk throughs.

I’m with you. Just posted the correct number of titles.

I hope like heck our qb is good enough to get a “ cap killing contract”

[Steel Maniac]

I think the mistake people make is to assume all quarterbacks are created equal.

It's not a "mistake" per say...it's about supply and demand; scarcity at the position.

There are 32 teams. There are really on 15 legit QB's in the league. After that, it's just "guys" at the position. So, any time you get a guy who can at least "half-way" play the position, ..that guy has you (the organization) by the balls because he knows he's a rare commodity.

That's why when the Redskins didn't let Cousins hold them hostage; they figured they could never win big time with him and let him move on. Remember how much of an outrage it was at the time?? But the Redskins were right about Cousins; why pay him a ton of money and he couldn't ever win anything.

But the position is so desperate, you saw the Vikings swoop in and they've been just treading water with him. Which is exactly what the Redskins foresaw in Cousins; a water treading QB that won't ever be able to win anything. The Ravens wanted to do the same thing with Lamar; but they looked around, didn't see anything legit that would be obtainable so they caved to him as well. I get it.

It will be hard for the league to actually pay QB's based on talent instead of scarcity of skill at the position. The scarcity issues is what drives these QB prices up. And I don't see that changing.