Spending In FA Does Not = Wins

[NorthCoast]

The Steelers rarely make splash signings in FA not because they are cheap but because they understand the value just isn't there. Many teams overpay in FA and get little to nothing for it.

This writeup tells the story:

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/03/nfl...atter-success\

The lesson, as it always seems to be, for NFL teams: Build through the draft. Because as our rankings and these breakdowns show, winners aren’t built-in free agency … but losers can be.

In fact, the relationship between the sum of points a team added in free agency and its win total over the four-year period was actually negative. In other words, even the teams that did manage to add talent — even if they didn’t spend a ton of money to make it happen — didn’t seem to get any better or worse than teams that either sat out of free agency completely or those that spent recklessly. Case in point: The two teams that finished at the bottom of our rankings just competed for a Super Bowl last month.

That certainly makes sense anecdotally. Winning the offseason rarely (if ever) translates to the regular season. And even the teams that have found initial success after offseason spending sprees — the Giants, Jaguars and Bears to name a few recent examples — have had trouble maintaining it.

[WindyCitySteel]

It's a nuanced thing. The Steelers have drafted not very well lately, as has been pointed out in other threads. They NEED to supplement in FA, but they choose the quantity over quality route, often taking bargains on reclamation projects (Jack, Shobert, Moncrief, Barron, Bostic, Green, etc.). I call it papering over holes instead of filling them.

Obviously you can't go out and buy every top FA, but instead of getting five average guys who will likely not stick long, why not sign one impact player for the same money?

This is the same conservative philosophy that shows up in game plans - they guard against what they perceive are "glaring holes", but end up with a roster full of mostly average players. That's led to 1 double digit win season in the last 5 with zero playoff success, and it's not trending up.

Basically, it feels like they're securing 8-9 wins a year and they're content with that.

[Northern_Blitz]

It's a nuanced thing. The Steelers have drafted not very well lately, as has been pointed out in other threads. They NEED to supplement in FA, but they choose the quantity over quality route, often taking bargains on reclamation projects (Jack, Shobert, Moncrief, Barron, Bostic, Green, etc.). I call it papering over holes instead of filling them.

Obviously you can't go out and buy every top FA, but instead of getting five average guys who will likely not stick long, why not sign one impact player for the same money?

This is the same conservative philosophy that shows up in game plans - they guard against what they perceive are "glaring holes", but end up with a roster full of mostly average players. That's led to 1 double digit win season in the last 5 with zero playoff success, and it's not trending up.

Basically, it feels like they're securing 8-9 wins a year and they're content with that.

If you aren't drafting well, that probably means your team isn't going to be good.

Spending in UFA isn't going to help a team like the Steelers that isn't going to "overcharge" a short window and burn the future IMO.

I think teams that spend a lot of money in UFA typically just do it to spend a lot of money in UFA. Constraining yourself forces you to try to look for UFA value.

[WindyCitySteel]

If you aren't drafting well, that probably means your team isn't going to be good.

Spending in UFA isn't going to help a team like the Steelers that isn't going to "overcharge" a short window and burn the future IMO.

I think teams that spend a lot of money in UFA typically just do it to spend a lot of money in UFA. Constraining yourself forces you to try to look for UFA value.

Again, I'm not asking for them to spend more, just spend more wisely.

[flippy]

Seems it has been a bit of a cluster fudge for this team recently between drafting and FAs.

So many of our draft picks recently have moved on - Hargrave, Hilton, Bud, Juju, Conner, Sutton, Edmunds….

Then we had abrupt endings with Shazier and Tuitt….

Gotta do something to backfill via FA or we couldn’t field a team.

But to the original point, spending money on FAs isn’t the natural path to a SuperBowl and success.

So what do you do?

Theres no easy answer, but how can you survive when the majority of your draft picks aren’t sticking around?

The drafts probably don’t even look as bad if we keep some of our guys.

Somehow we almost need a system that new guys can come in and learn and contribute to quickly and once they get past year 4 or 5 and can make
out better elsewhere in FA, we’ve gotta be ready to turn them over and replace them quickly with new rookies and mid tier FAs.

[Northern_Blitz]

Seems it has been a bit of a cluster fudge for this team recently between drafting and FAs.

So many of our draft picks recently have moved on - Hargrave, Hilton, Bud, Juju, Conner, Sutton, Edmunds….

Then we had abrupt endings with Shazier and Tuitt….

Gotta do something to backfill via FA or we couldn’t field a team.

But to the original point, spending money on FAs isn’t the natural path to a SuperBowl and success.

So what do you do?

Theres no easy answer, but how can you survive when the majority of your draft picks aren’t sticking around?

The drafts probably don’t even look as bad if we keep some of our guys.

Somehow we almost need a system that new guys can come in and learn and contribute to quickly and once they get past year 4 or 5 and can make
out better elsewhere in FA, we’ve gotta be ready to turn them over and replace them quickly with new rookies and mid tier FAs.

+1

This has been the strategy we've tried to use at WR as 2nd contracts get more and more important at that position.

Unfortunately, it works better when you have a great QB in their prime.

[Northern_Blitz]

Again, I'm not asking for them to spend more, just spend more wisely.

Sorry...I thought you had said that we should be signing premier UFAs.

Either way, I think that those "premier" UFAs tend to be disappointments more often then not when they come from the outside.

And while I don't think any of the bets we placed at the time were "bad" given the information we had at the time, the draft and UFA solutions we've tried to put into place at ILB have been disappointing.

And while PF looks like a good draft pick, I think not selecting a C at the time was a sub-optimal move.

[whisper]

It's a nuanced thing. The Steelers have drafted not very well lately, as has been pointed out in other threads. They NEED to supplement in FA, but they choose the quantity over quality route, often taking bargains on reclamation projects (Jack, Shobert, Moncrief, Barron, Bostic, Green, etc.). I call it papering over holes instead of filling them.

Obviously you can't go out and buy every top FA, but instead of getting five average guys who will likely not stick long, why not sign one impact player for the same money?

This is the same conservative philosophy that shows up in game plans - they guard against what they perceive are "glaring holes", but end up with a roster full of mostly average players. That's led to 1 double digit win season in the last 5 with zero playoff success, and it's not trending up.

Basically, it feels like they're securing 8-9 wins a year and they're content with that.

Hand on the pump....Oh wait, why so negative?

[WindyCitySteel]

Hand on the pump....Oh wait, why so negative?

How long will it take you to work through this most recent butthurt phrase of me criticizing your 100% CONSTANT negativity. Everyone has some degree of negative takes, you and a couple others are on 100% of the time.

That's the difference. You started a thread criticizing their draft day ball cap.

[Captain Lemming]

How long will it take you to work through this most recent butthurt phrase of me criticizing your 100% CONSTANT negativity. Everyone has some degree of negative takes, you and a couple others are on 100% of the time.

That's the difference. You started a thread criticizing their draft day ball cap.

Don't dismiss the importance of the cap design my friend.

It is SO UGLY that if a player is to wear it, I fear he will go full "Elway" on us and hold out until we are forced to trade him to another team.