OT: New QB contracts

[crushedspirit]

I think its too early to say declare Watson a mistake. He’s only played 4 or 5 games.

Thing that trips me out though is thinking paying certain QB’s X amount of dollars is the reason a team screwed up their chances of winning.

Every year we see teams rise and fall because the NFL is designed this way intentionally. One year its a good contract, next year its the reason they will never win again.

Teams aren’t going to walk away from a known quantity for a rookie if they aren’t in the top 10. They are going to pay someone regardless and money never guarantees success or failure.

When a team reaches that 15% or higher QB cap hit, it gets harder to retain FAs and/or bring in new FAs. There's a reason why Mahomes is the only one in the past decade that won despite a big cap hit at that position. It's not a winning formula unless the guy can carry a team.

[whatever]

They have until 4PM to get a deal done. Exclusive tag and Lamar will get “hurt”again after starting 8-3..

nonexclusice tag and let teams like ATL and Carolina take a swing at him? They can match the offer and keep him but ionno, I think if I’m Lamar and my team keeps saying they want me but won’t bend then clearly they don’t value me and I’m out.

Why should the team cave in to his demands when his production continues to decline and he gets hurt every year?

[crushedspirit]

Why should the team cave in to his demands when his production continues to decline and he gets hurt every year?

At this point I would drop the non-exclusive and let him deal with other teams, then match it or take the 2 first rounders.

[Northern_Blitz]

This is the market. That isn’t “a lot” of money for average QB’s when you look at what the top QB’s make.

if Kenny isn’t a “top end guy” and gets $38M/$40M per that will probably be the market because top end guys will be getting $60M per in 3 years.

TLDR: I think you're making the wrong comparison looking at average QB vs elite QB at market level. I think you should compare the price of average QB to the price of a rookie who might be average to above average.

But given the price of average QBs and the price of QBs on rookie deals, I think it's silly to pay market value for a QB that isn't easily in the top 10. And honestly, if you're paying the 10th best QB in the league market value, that's probably too much too. You probably want a guy who is at least in the conversation as a top 5 guy in the league IMO.

Otherwise, I think you're probably better off going back to the draft.

My guess is that the difference in cap hit from about the 10 best QB in the league (certainly the 15th best) isn't worth the difference in play you'll get vs. signing a guy like Mitch to come in and drafting the next guy cheap.

I think the road to cap hell is paved by giving guys that are average very big cap hits. Pay a lot for elite guys. And let average guys walk. Especially at QB where the premium is so high.

But it's not good for season ticket sales, so teams are afraid to do something like this. And I think it artificially inflates the middle of the "starting" QB market.

I know you don't want to hear it (and it's far to early to argue about whether he'll be in this boat or not), but if you have a top 10-15 QB at the end of their rookie deal, I don't think you should sign them. Even really good QBs like Russell Wilson didn't really do much when they hit their second contracts. I don't think guys who are middle of the pack (of starters) are worth second contracts at all.

It sucks, because they might be something like the 25th best QB in the world. But the drop off in talent is so steep from about 8th or so that it's not worth paying them what the market will bear IMO.

Maybe that changes if teams start making smarter decision around these middling starters. But I don't think it will happen soon.

[feltdizz]

TLDR: I think you're making the wrong comparison looking at average QB vs elite QB at market level. I think you should compare the price of average QB to the price of a rookie who might be average to above average.

But given the price of average QBs and the price of QBs on rookie deals, I think it's silly to pay market value for a QB that isn't easily in the top 10. And honestly, if you're paying the 10th best QB in the league market value, that's probably too much too. You probably want a guy who is at least in the conversation as a top 5 guy in the league IMO.

Otherwise, I think you're probably better off going back to the draft.

My guess is that the difference in cap hit from about the 10 best QB in the league (certainly the 15th best) isn't worth the difference in play you'll get vs. signing a guy like Mitch to come in and drafting the next guy cheap.

I think the road to cap hell is paved by giving guys that are average very big cap hits. Pay a lot for elite guys. And let average guys walk. Especially at QB where the premium is so high.

But it's not good for season ticket sales, so teams are afraid to do something like this. And I think it artificially inflates the middle of the "starting" QB market.

I know you don't want to hear it (and it's far to early to argue about whether he'll be in this boat or not), but if you have a top 10-15 QB at the end of their rookie deal, I don't think you should sign them. Even really good QBs like Russell Wilson didn't really do much when they hit their second contracts. I don't think guys who are middle of the pack (of starters) are worth second contracts at all.

It sucks, because they might be something like the 25th best QB in the world. But the drop off in talent is so steep from about 8th or so that it's not worth paying them what the market will bear IMO.

Maybe that changes if teams start making smarter decision around these middling starters. But I don't think it will happen soon.

Well I’m using “what is” vs what “should be” when it comes to comps. Unless you are drafting in the top 10 what are the chances that rookie QB will be a better option than an average vet if you are trying to remain competitive? More than likely you will use that first round pick on BPA.

The reality is the NFL believes a Geno/Cousins/Carr is a better option than a rookie QB in the second or 3rd round. More times than not this is correct too.

[feltdizz]

When a team reaches that 15% or higher QB cap hit, it gets harder to retain FAs and/or bring in new FAs. There's a reason why Mahomes is the only one in the past decade that won despite a big cap hit at that position. It's not a winning formula unless the guy can carry a team.

Well, first off, its not SB or bust even though fans don’t want to hear this. Its about being competitive enough to make the playoffs for a chance to win a SB. Too
much can happen in a single elimination game to put it all on 1 contract.

I do believe that 3rd contract is the killer but the 2nd one usually leaves enough room because you can spread out the cap hit. I do know fully guaranteed eliminates that ability.

But I also keep hearing how the cap is a myth and it can be manipulated if you really want to keep players. Saints have bene in cap hell forever and somehow they
keep finding money to retain or get new talent.

[Steel Maniac]

When a team reaches that 15% or higher QB cap hit, it gets harder to retain FAs and/or bring in new FAs. There's a reason why Mahomes is the only one in the past decade that won despite a big cap hit at that position. It's not a winning formula unless the guy can carry a team.

Exactly. Well put. But with that said, I'm expecting Joe Burrow to be the next one to break through behind Mahomes. He's almost as special as Mahomes. Unfortunately, he's in our division.

[Steel Maniac]

Why should the team cave in to his demands when his production continues to decline and he gets hurt every year?

Exactly. Just like Vick, just like Vince Young.

[feltdizz]

Why should the team cave in to his demands when his production continues to decline and he gets hurt every year?

Because it probably give them the best chance to remain competitive?

Ravens obviously are free to do what they want when it comes to signing Lamar.

[feltdizz]

Also heard that Carr’s contract is actually 2 years 60 mill once you remove the (fluff) according to Brandt.

https://twitter.com/AndrewBrandt/sta...08557002326017