Draft: Who Was Better, Cowher or Tomlin?

[NorthCoast]

I started thinking about the recent comments Tomlin and Kahn made regarding the draft and the "Steelers system" they use in their approach. So if, in fact, they have a system how much influence does the GM, HC, or staff have when drafting players? And which regime did better at it?

As a simple measure I looked at PFR's Approximate Value for the careers of the top players (AV >= 50).

Question; How many picks hit this threshold under Cowher and Tomlin and what was the average AV over the history of their drafts?

	# of Picks w/AV >=50	Avg AV across drafts	Avg Pick # across drafts
Tomlin	10	70.7	134.8
Cowher	22	72.0	134.1

At first glance it looks like the Cowher regime did better than the Tomlin regime on average. He drafted twice as many players that have produced at a high level and his average AV is higher. But, Cowher's average AV is skewed by one pick (Roethlisberger). Remove his career AV and Cowher's average drops to 69.2. Very close to Tomlin's.

Keep in mind that some of Tomlin's draft picks are still accumulating AV and his average might get boosted further.

So this has me thinking maybe it's the 'Steelers system' rather than the people running it that are the source of the success in drafting talent.

[hawaiiansteel]

At first glance it looks like the Cowher regime did better than the Tomlin regime on average. He drafted twice as many players that have produced at a high level and his average AV is higher. But, Cowher's average AV is skewed by one pick (Roethlisberger). Remove his career AV and Cowher's average drops to 69.2. Very close to Tomlin's.

Cowher didn't want to draft Ben, he wanted OL Shawn Andrews who ended up being a bust.

Rooney had to intercede to pick Ben, so Cowher definitely doesn't deserve any credit for that selection.

[Oviedo]

Cowher didn't want to draft Ben, he wanted OL Shawn Andrews who ended up being a bust.

Rooney had to intercede to pick Ben, so Cowher definitely doesn't deserve any credit for that selection.

Some want to forget that critical fact as they try to pump up Cowher's legacy and denigrate Tomlin.

[feltdizz]

Some want to forget that critical fact as they try to pump up Cowher's legacy and denigrate Tomlin.

they know.. but it doesn’t matter.

But I think Troy P was by far the best selection.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

they know.. but it doesn’t matter.

But I think Troy P was by far the best selection.

I think Troy P was quite a bit of luck. They wanted Ed Reed the year before, and at the last minute the Ravens traded in front of them to get him.

The next year, still in need of a safety, they moved up and took the best safety. I don't think they realized how good he would be, only that they desperately needed a safety.

In fact, his rookie year, many fans on message boards dubbed him Bustamalu because, true to the steelers, they didn't play him much as a rookie. I have since read that LeBeau had to "let go" a little bit because there were times Troy wouldn't follow *his* plan... but, usually, Troy was right. So, he stopped trying to contain him within the system and just let Troy be Troy. For that reason, Ryan Clark is underrated, IMO. He had to cover for all those times when Troy was out of position.

[Northern_Blitz]

I started thinking about the recent comments Tomlin and Kahn made regarding the draft and the "Steelers system" they use in their approach. So if, in fact, they have a system how much influence does the GM, HC, or staff have when drafting players? And which regime did better at it?

As a simple measure I looked at PFR's Approximate Value for the careers of the top players (AV >= 50).

Question; How many picks hit this threshold under Cowher and Tomlin and what was the average AV over the history of their drafts?

	# of Picks w/AV >=50	Avg AV across drafts	Avg Pick # across drafts
Tomlin	10	70.7	134.8
Cowher	22	72.0	134.1

At first glance it looks like the Cowher regime did better than the Tomlin regime on average. He drafted twice as many players that have produced at a high level and his average AV is higher. But, Cowher's average AV is skewed by one pick (Roethlisberger). Remove his career AV and Cowher's average drops to 69.2. Very close to Tomlin's.

Keep in mind that some of Tomlin's draft picks are still accumulating AV and his average might get boosted further.

So this has me thinking maybe it's the 'Steelers system' rather than the people running it that are the source of the success in drafting talent.

As in most things, looks like Tomlin and Cowher are very similar.

Might also be interesting to look at GM and HC combinations since I think it's a pretty collaborative process for the Steelers. Maybe the datasets are too small to split Cowher's years into TD and KC?

But, I think you're right that the numbers will get skewed by the huge hits. And I think picking outliers is at least as much about luck as it is skill. I don't think it's a repeatable skill (or "Cowher" would have drafted more than one elite QB in all the time we didn't have one).

[Northern_Blitz]

I think Troy P was quite a bit of luck. They wanted Ed Reed the year before, and at the last minute the Ravens traded in front of them to get him.

The next year, still in need of a safety, they moved up and took the best safety. I don't think they realized how good he would be, only that they desperately needed a safety.

In fact, his rookie year, many fans on message boards dubbed him Bustamalu because, true to the steelers, they didn't play him much as a rookie. I have since read that LeBeau had to "let go" a little bit because there were times Troy wouldn't follow *his* plan... but, usually, Troy was right. So, he stopped trying to contain him within the system and just let Troy be Troy. For that reason, Ryan Clark is underrated, IMO. He had to cover for all those times when Troy was out of position.

I think they are all a bit of luck.

It's like stock picking. And they aren't allowed to draft an index of all the first round players.

[crushedspirit]

Nobody forgets what Cowher's weakness was with picking QBs, but this Tomlin v Cowher thing is silly to be honest. The sheer number of picks that his regime hit in contrast to this regime is plain as day.

People complain on the board of negativity, but I also see many posts that are intended to warrant a reaction.

[Joel Buchsbaum]

Noll.

But Cowher was better with the draft in general.

[Northern_Blitz]

I wonder how many of Cowher's +AV guys were edge rushers? Seems like we were good at exploiting the market for those tweener OLBs that no one else wanted.

[feltdizz]

I think Troy P was quite a bit of luck. They wanted Ed Reed the year before, and at the last minute the Ravens traded in front of them to get him.

The next year, still in need of a safety, they moved up and took the best safety. I don't think they realized how good he would be, only that they desperately needed a safety.

In fact, his rookie year, many fans on message boards dubbed him Bustamalu because, true to the steelers, they didn't play him much as a rookie. I have since read that LeBeau had to "let go" a little bit because there were times Troy wouldn't follow *his* plan... but, usually, Troy was right. So, he stopped trying to contain him within the system and just let Troy be Troy. For that reason, Ryan Clark is underrated, IMO. He had to cover for all those times when Troy was out of position.

I think AB in the 6th is luck. A first rounder turning out to be a star? Not so much

[feltdizz]

I wonder how many of Cowher's +AV guys were edge rushers? Seems like we were good at exploiting the market for those tweener OLBs that no one else wanted.

Good point. I believe there was a time where there were 2 teams running a 3-4 so we had a massive pool of tweeners.

[NorthCoast]

I wonder how many of Cowher's +AV guys were edge rushers? Seems like we were good at exploiting the market for those tweener OLBs that no one else wanted.

It's not clean on the PFR website because some picks are listed as DE rather than LB

But here's Cowher's.. out of a total of 16 LBs picked during his tenure;

L. Foote
J Porter
M Vrabel
E Holmes
J Gildon
C Brown

For Tomlin (out of 22 LBs):

L Timmons
L Woodley (listed as DE but I think he played backer)
TJ Watt

Sure, there's always some luck involved but like the saying goes; "luck is the residue of design", and if the right system is in place it can improve the odds.

[steeler_fan_in_t.o.]

I think the flaw in this discussion is that most coaches are not the loudest voice in a draft room, and that after Donahoe was fired, Cowher was the top dog (after Rooney), whereas Tomlin - and pretty much all coaches - are not the draft decision makers. I believe the Steelers hierarchy has been

1992 - 1999 Donahoe > Cowher
2000 - 2006 Cowher > Colbert (Cowher had just won power struggle and was involved in hiring Colbert)
2007 - ? Colbert > Tomlin
? - 2022 Colbert > Tomlin but not as much. Tomlin gradually much bigger say but never the #1 say in the draft

Just IMO of course.

[Northern_Blitz]

It's not clean on the PFR website because some picks are listed as DE rather than LB

But here's Cowher's.. out of a total of 16 LBs picked during his tenure;

L. Foote
J Porter
M Vrabel
E Holmes
J Gildon
C Brown

For Tomlin (out of 22 LBs):

L Timmons
L Woodley (listed as DE but I think he played backer)
TJ Watt

Sure, there's always some luck involved but like the saying goes; "luck is the residue of design", and if the right system is in place it can improve the odds.

Brown and Woodson are probably the only UFAs I really remember feeling really bad about losing.

And while it's true that we did draft Vrabel, he didn't really do much with us (< 60 tackles in 4 years).