Page 14 of 31 FirstFirst ... 4121314151624 ... LastLast
Results 131 to 140 of 308

Thread: Tracking Kenny's progress

  1. #131
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    NC, re: the Jimmy G comp I'd love to see Kenny in that offense rather than this high school offense. Jimmy's being maximized, Kenny seems to be playing underwater with a straight-jacket on.

    Also, rookie vs. 9-year vet.

  2. #132
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by WindyCitySteel View Post
    NC, re: the Jimmy G comp I'd love to see Kenny in that offense rather than this high school offense. Jimmy's being maximized, Kenny seems to be playing underwater with a straight-jacket on.

    Also, rookie vs. 9-year vet.
    Give any of us CMC, Deebo, and Kittle to throw to and we'll put up insane numbers just throwing to the LOS.

    Jimmy G's passing numbers have gone thru the roof with CMC on the field.

  3. #133
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by WindyCitySteel View Post
    That means a lot coming from you, but his backhanded compliments and outright laser blasting of Pickett sometimes before 1% of the precincts have reported points to a pre-conceived bias.

    None of us will know this year or probably next if he's the next franchise QB, so I can't take seriously anyone who says they know his ceiling right now.
    If I could truly predict with extreme accuracy NFL QB success and failure...If I could set ceilings for players with transcendent insights...I certainly wouldn't be posting here. I would be collecting big paychecks with the Steelers. I find "scouting" fun and the debate even more entertaining. So, if any member here is getting upset with my opinions...take a step back and realize it's just one man's opinion. There is much love for Kenny among players and commentators. Many think he is the real deal. So, if you need to read posts or articles confirming your opinions there are plenty out there.

  4. #134
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by WindyCitySteel View Post
    They were down to their 4th string RB who was actually having success, but Day kept throwing. Stroud has made it clear that he's not a RB, but to me he's just not a gamer who will do what it takes to win. He's as good thrower, but I foresee a Ryan Leaf meltdown in the NFL.
    We actually agree on Stroud. I said this from the beginning to my dad. He like many of you doesn't always like my opinion. He started his career off rough. My dad blew it off citing lack of experience. It wasn't his performance as much as it was his body language and some of the defeated facial expressions. He didn't seem to have that IT. I could probably throw for 4000 yards with that kind of talent around me. Ok, who am I kidding most likely 5000 yards lol. I think he busts big time in the NFL. I do not think he has the mentality to make it at the next level.

    Now prepare yourself because I'm about to give KP a compliment. I have said this before but some seem to forget the occasional nice thing I say about KP. While I do not believe he has an elite arm or athletic ability...I do believe he has a franchise QB swag and confidence. I said this very early. I like the way he carries himself. Above the neck is half the battle. If KP ever has the chance to be great it will be because he is uber confident and is willing to take some chances.

  5. #135
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    Despite what some posters think, there are some fans (me included) that are neither 'all in' or 'all against' KP as the franchise QB. What I seen so far is a QB that reminds me of a mobile Garoppolo. He won't wow with weekly 300 yd games or throw 50 yds off his back foot with the flick of his wrist. But he is efficient, makes good decisions, and is accurate. He is good at getting the ball to his playmakers. You can win a lot of games with that kind of QB (ref. J.G.; 0.697 career win %).

    A look at K. Pickett efficiency by downs (season average);

    [url=https://flic.kr/p/2o3eCHr][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/2o3eCHr]Capture[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/191750946@N04/]R W[/url], on Flickr

    For those not familiar QB EPA is highly correlated to QB rating but refines it based on a bunch of factors; down, distance, INTs, comp%, penalties, time left, etc.

    Since the mid 2000s raw QB completion % has risen dramatically so it's not as sensitive to game conditions as it used to be. This is why CPOE is being used more. (PFF has their own version of it.)

    CPOE= completion % over expected; calculated from a probability model with factors
    • Field position
    • Down
    • Yards to go
    • Air yards
    • Distance to sticks (air yards – yards to go)
    • Whether possession team is at home
    • Whether the game is played indoors
    • Era, broken down into 2006-2013, 2014-2017, 2018 and beyond
    • Pass location (binary: middle or not middle)
    • Whether quarterback was hit on the play


    The elite QBs have overall positive value for EPA (ranging ~0.1-0.4) and CPOE (ranging ~0-7%) across all downs. Note the Roethlisberger had a negative CPOE last season.
    Thanks NC.

    I wonder if anyone has done progressions of these kind of charts for players. If there's some kind of expectation for changes from rookies onward.

    Like, do the data ever move more than a standard deviation upward from their rookie seasons or something?

    It might be interesting if this kind of tool could be used to project ceilings. And if they could, it might give teams a tool to decide whether to stick with a guy or cut bait. I'd imagine that these kinds of decisions are mostly "gut" decisions from coaches ATM.

    I think it would also be interesting to see what the standard deviation on players looks like too. I'd imagine that 2 players could have the same average EPA on say 3rd down. But one guy gets infrequent bombs and the other guy routinely converts, but not big plays. In that case the "error bar" on the points would look different for two guys with the same average.

    Nice to see that Kenny is about average as a rookie (and looks to be pretty good on 3rd down). Hopefully that means he'll become better than average as he develops.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 11-30-2022 at 10:56 AM.

  6. #136
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
    We actually agree on Stroud. I said this from the beginning to my dad. He like many of you doesn't always like my opinion. He started his career off rough. My dad blew it off citing lack of experience. It wasn't his performance as much as it was his body language and some of the defeated facial expressions. He didn't seem to have that IT. I could probably throw for 4000 yards with that kind of talent around me. Ok, who am I kidding most likely 5000 yards lol. I think he busts big time in the NFL. I do not think he has the mentality to make it at the next level.

    Now prepare yourself because I'm about to give KP a compliment. I have said this before but some seem to forget the occasional nice thing I say about KP. While I do not believe he has an elite arm or athletic ability...I do believe he has a franchise QB swag and confidence. I said this very early. I like the way he carries himself. Above the neck is half the battle. If KP ever has the chance to be great it will be because he is uber confident and is willing to take some chances.


    I'm going to try to tone down my stanning for KP and be more objective.

  7. #137
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
    I won't lie I do troll you guys a bit lol. With that said, I was quoting a video I posted where a guy broke it down. I can pick the video apart but it was there for conversation. I'll post it again below. But, these things are for conversation and entertainment. Last time I checked no one here is getting paid to scout. So, anyone here getting their feelings hurt about my lack of love for Pickett should probably get a new hobby.

    Not really sure why you admit trolling a bit but then act like people responding to it appropriately is an issue.
    Tomlinís coming back so what can you do?


  8. #138
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    The other side of the historical coin. Again, context showed that Ben was a much better rookie than Kenny is, but just to show you how raw, cherry picked stat lines can be deceiving:

    https://twitter.com/NFLRookieWatxh/s...j3PmsPdl-zaONg

  9. #139
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by feltdizz View Post
    Not really sure why you admit trolling a bit but then act like people responding to it appropriately is an issue.
    Really? You never "troll"? Dizz I have read your posts for years and I know you love getting under people's skin. So settle down. Second, where have I acted like it's an issue? It might be for them but it's certainly not for me. If members are getting upset with my opinions...for their own mental health and happiness they either need to block me or step away for a bit. Football is a game, a guys like guys argue and jab each other. I don't see it ever as an issue unless people are getting nasty about it. And I don't believe anyone here has stepped over the line when it comes to KP. I don't think anyone has made a comment about my mom so we good lol.

  10. #140
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by WindyCitySteel View Post
    The other side of the historical coin. Again, context showed that Ben was a much better rookie than Kenny is, but just to show you how raw, cherry picked stat lines can be deceiving:

    https://twitter.com/NFLRookieWatxh/s...j3PmsPdl-zaONg
    I agree stats don't show the full picture. Ben is a first ballot HOFr and he was rarely a top fantasy option. But, stats do have some validity and should be acknowledged accordingly and within context.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •