Time to go to work (Pickett signs with Steelers...)

[Captain Lemming]

His arm is definitely good enough. And yes he could be the next Brady or the next Montana. I can't deny that possibility. But he could also be the next Ryan Leaf. You can't deny that. Since I can't crawl into his head and see how his wheels turn without a session. I can look at his body of work and his mechanics. Average. That is what I am basing my assessment on. The Steelers obviously know Kenny better than I do psychologically. So, here's to hoping they see something I don't.

THIS is my point. Once he has a "good enough" arm, he has the physical tools of the best QBs ever.

All else equal is stronger better? Of course. But the best ever did not have cannons.

In fact, I would suggest physical gifts are "floor" traits.

Follow me here.

I don't think the likes of Vick, Lamarr, heck our own guys, Bradshaw, Ben, even Farve.... they are NFL starters w/o elite physical traits.

THAT is why gifted players are safer. Raw ability (especially arm talent) can get you in the door, even win championships.

But the best ever weren't specimens.

Nobody can guarantee anything. That is not the case.

But considering the most successful QBs ever aren't great physical talents, creating a ceiling based on not having a cannon, bears no relation to what history has shown to be true.

[Shawn]

THIS is my point. Once he has a "good enough" arm, he has the physical tools of the best QBs ever.

All else equal is stronger better? Of course. But the best ever did not have cannons.

In fact, I would suggest physical gifts are "floor" traits.

Follow me here.

I don't think the likes of Vick, Lamarr, heck our own guys, Bradshaw, Ben, even Farve.... they are NFL starters w/o elite physical traits.

THAT is why gifted players are safer. Raw ability (especially arm talent) can get you in the door, even win championships.

But the best ever weren't specimens.

Nobody can guarantee anything. That is not the case.

But considering the most successful QBs ever aren't great physical talents, creating a ceiling based on not having a cannon, bears no relation to what history has shown to be true.

Farve and Rodgers both had/have elite arm talent. Mahomes has elite arm talent. P. Manning had elite arm talent. Elway had elite arm talent. With that said, I agree that it's not the defining factor. The defining factor is hard to measure hence the reason so many teams miss on QBs.

[WindyCitySteel]

THIS is my point. Once he has a "good enough" arm, he has the physical tools of the best QBs ever.

All else equal is stronger better? Of course. But the best ever did not have cannons.

In fact, I would suggest physical gifts are "floor" traits.

Follow me here.

I don't think the likes of Vick, Lamarr, heck our own guys, Bradshaw, Ben, even Farve.... they are NFL starters w/o elite physical traits.

THAT is why gifted players are safer. Raw ability (especially arm talent) can get you in the door, even win championships.

But the best ever weren't specimens.

Nobody can guarantee anything. That is not the case.

But considering the most successful QBs ever aren't great physical talents, creating a ceiling based on not having a cannon, bears no relation to what history has shown to be true.

All about hearts and smarts with Kenny, if they are merely average he won't be a franchise QB. Gotta be elite in these areas. Not right away, but we'd better see glimpses early on.

I disagree with analysts about tools providing the highest ceiling - the intangibles provide that, IMO.

[TheRealTazz864]

We wont keep Mitch around as a QB3.

Pittsburgh isn't paying him big money unless he plays over 70-someodd percent of the time... $4.5 million is about right for a QB3...

[Mr.wizard]

Farve and Rodgers both had/have elite arm talent. Mahomes has elite arm talent. P. Manning had elite arm talent. Elway had elite arm talent. With that said, I agree that it's not the defining factor. The defining factor is hard to measure hence the reason so many teams miss on QBs.

Manning didn't have elite arm talent his draft profile said " A good arm but not a gun"

[Ernie]

Pittsburgh isn't paying him big money unless he plays over 70-someodd percent of the time... $4.5 million is about right for a QB3...

Put me down as saying he will exceed that threshold this year (barring injuries)

[Ernie]

Manning didn't have elite arm talent his draft profile said " A good arm but not a gun"

Manning had a good arm with Elite intangibles

[WindyCitySteel]

Manning had a good arm with Elite intangibles

Arm talent is more than strength, it's also about being able to make throws at different angles, off-platform, changing speeds, etc. Pickett does a lot of those things well.

[Ernie]

Arm talent is more than strength, it's also about being able to make throws at different angles, off-platform, changing speeds, etc. Pickett does a lot of those things well.

No doubt about that.

[Captain Lemming]

Farve and Rodgers both had/have elite arm talent. Mahomes has elite arm talent. P. Manning had elite arm talent. Elway had elite arm talent. With that said, I agree that it's not the defining factor. The defining factor is hard to measure hence the reason so many teams miss on QBs.

Yes there are a number of successful QBs with elite arms. You miss my point. You CAN sometimes get away with less than elite accuracy, with elite tools. The QBs I listed are examples.
Some QBs have elite physical gifts, accuracy, AND intangibles, which is the safest pick.

MY POINT:

A "ceiling" based on physical gifts that are missing from the two most successful QBs of the SB era, is an artificial ceiling.

I would suggest that one of the biggest reasons QB bust is overrated physical tools. Successful QBs who don't go top 10 frequently do so because they have "good enough" arms. BTW, the Mannings DONT have elite arm talent. Ryan Leaf did.

For example the common idea that Willis has a higher ceiling because he has elite "arm talent" (which you have said) and can run has zero historical basis in fact.