Chiefs, Mahommes SB era done. Your salary cap advantage just ended.

[Northern_Blitz]

At some point the market will correct. The cap decrease post Covid threw an interesting wrench in there as well.

Some of it probably starts with the rookie wage scale. I’m not sure if that’s accelerating as fast as the cap. I don’t think we’ll ever see the Sam Bradford contracts again but it’s another factor.

This is a good point Hackjam. I also don't know the answer. I think I'd assume it inflates with the cap, but I don't know. My understanding is that QB contracts are generally inflating faster than the cap (or have in the past). So I'd guess the gap is getting wider. But I don't know.

[Northern_Blitz]

It still comes down to supply and demand. If enough college QBs come out more ready to play then average QB pay should at least stabilize. But the elite QBs will always lead the market.

And it makes sense to me to pay elite QBs. If you have Mahomes, you make damn sure that he's on your team for all of his prime years (at least).

But too many teams pay average guys (at least close to) elite money IMO.

[whisper]

And it makes sense to me to pay elite QBs. If you have Mahomes, you make damn sure that he's on your team for all of his prime years (at least).

But too many teams pay average guys (at least close to) elite money IMO.

Yea, Daniel Jones comes to mind. I would have never thought he'd be pulling down the jack he is even 1 year ago. Insane. He owes his head coach half of his pay. I can't see NY even sniffing a ring with him at QB. And yet they paid him large.

[feltdizz]

Yea, Daniel Jones comes to mind. I would have never thought he'd be pulling down the jack he is even 1 year ago. Insane. He owes his head coach half of his pay. I can't see NY even sniffing a ring with him at QB. And yet they paid him large.

I think part of the problem is the “sniffing a ring” argument folks have against paying a QB or a a player.

If that is the requirement for paying a player then 90% of the league is making bad investments every year.

I think for most owners its “sniffing the playoffs” because that gives you a chance to play for a ring.

[crushedspirit]

Yea, Daniel Jones comes to mind. I would have never thought he'd be pulling down the jack he is even 1 year ago. Insane. He owes his head coach half of his pay. I can't see NY even sniffing a ring with him at QB. And yet they paid him large.

Jones had the Giants right where he wanted even though Daboll is the biggest reason for his play last season. It would have been relatively easy for the fanbase to accept the Giants walking away after many pitiful seasons, but he forced their hand to overpay for him or watch the fanbase implode after reaching the playoffs. At least if he turns out to be a 1 yr wonder, they have an out after 2024. He does need some better weapons though, and adding Waller was a great start. I don't see him taking them far at all, but that's another story.

[hackjam]

I think part of the problem is the “sniffing a ring” argument folks have against paying a QB or a a player.

If that is the requirement for paying a player then 90% of the league is making bad investments every year.

I think for most owners its “sniffing the playoffs” because that gives you a chance to play for a ring.

I don't think it's a bad investment, it just doesn't expose you the biggest theoretical return. It's the index fund guy vs the individual stock picker. Index fund guy is trying to get relatively predictable returns and limit their downside. Same deal with the GM who signs Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Dak, etc. to a giant deal. The individual stock picker exposes themselves to a tremendous amount of risk but opens up the door to a tremendous amount of opportunity. This is the rookie QB contract churning argument.

It's easy for me to say churn QBs because it's not my employment on the line lol. I do think it's an interesting concept in theory.

[feltdizz]

I don't think it's a bad investment, it just doesn't expose you the biggest theoretical return. It's the index fund guy vs the individual stock picker. Index fund guy is trying to get relatively predictable returns and limit their downside. Same deal with the GM who signs Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Dak, etc. to a giant deal. The individual stock picker exposes themselves to a tremendous amount of risk but opens up the door to a tremendous amount of opportunity. This is the rookie QB contract churning argument.

It's easy for me to say churn QBs because it's not my employment on the line lol. I do think it's an interesting concept in theory.

if this was Daniel Jones 3rd trip to the playoffs then sure, churn QB’s.

This is their first playoff win in 11 years. You can’t churn when you have a 1st year head coach who guides Jones to the playoffs. Especially if you watched the Giants and saw how inept the WR’s were last year.

I’m not a Jones fan but even I have to admit he is worth that contract given where they are in 2023.

Even if it doesn’t work out at least they tried. I think that’s what most Giant fans will say.

[NorthCoast]

Top 10 QB contracts at time of signing as % of Cap;




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[Northern_Blitz]

Top 10 QB contracts at time of signing as % of Cap;




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Thanks NC.

Interesting that it came down this year.

My guess is because there weren't any good / accomplished QBs that were signing contracts this season (either in the top 3 or in numbers ~6-10).

But maybe it's also a sign that teams are less inclined to sign big QB deals. Maybe teams are pushing to create a "middle class" for Qbs.

It also looks were was an uncharacteristic number of big deals last season. And Stafford could have demanded much more then he did...I wonder if he regrets going team friendly now that they are rumored to be shopping him around.

I'd imagine the methodology is (AAV) / (cap in year of signing)?

[feltdizz]

Thanks NC.

Interesting that it came down this year.

My guess is because there weren't any good / accomplished QBs that were signing contracts this season (either in the top 3 or in numbers ~6-10).

But maybe it's also a sign that teams are less inclined to sign big QB deals. Maybe teams are pushing to create a "middle class" for Qbs.

It also looks were was an uncharacteristic number of big deals last season. And Stafford could have demanded much more then he did...I wonder if he regrets going team friendly now that they are rumored to be shopping him around.

I'd imagine the methodology is (AAV) / (cap in year of signing)?

Umm.. Burrow and Herbert are going to get some serious money soon.

I don’t think teams are less inclined, we just had a ton of old HOFers retire recently.