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Thread: "Trust The Process"

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    Not always. Injuries are a luck factor. And they are uncontrollable unless you are suggesting intentionally injuring to create an opportunity. And that sounds Sean Paytonesque.
    By and large, though, if you consistently prepare properly, remain disciplined, and are able to make adjustments, you're going to have a lot more success in the face of "bad luck" than the teams that are inconsistent in their preparation, discipline, and ability to adjust.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    Not always. Injuries are a luck factor. And they are uncontrollable unless you are suggesting intentionally injuring to create an opportunity. And that sounds Sean Paytonesque.
    And sometimes the weight of the injuries can be crushing.

    I think that's basically what happened on Sunday night. Too many injuries on D and not enough legit NFL players on that side of the ball.

    It's happened to us in the playoffs on the offensive side of the ball too. When guys like Toddman or Tuissant are your leading rushers (I think they both were in different games, but not sure), that's not a good thing for your offense.

    Even when we lost Ben, maybe we could have squeaked into the playoffs if we didn't have practice squad level guys at the skill positions. If there were more legit NFL players at those positions, maybe they could have lifted the QB play from near the bottom of the league to just below average.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 11-23-2021 at 01:53 PM.

  3. #13
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    Sure good luck always matters. Itís the source of everything. Did someone hit the generic lottery? Some just have better DNA. Some are just smarter. Some recover from injuries faster. Etc. Etc. Etc.

    But thereís so many variables that go into football that luck to some degree is saying I donít understand it so it must be God.

    There are all sorts of stats and odd of success. And sometimes Mike T gets a gut feeling telling him to go all in when the odds are against him because itís the only path he sees to victory. To me his boneheaded decisions support the luck theory.

    But thereís so many other factors in building and coaching a team. How do you spend your salary cap? If it was equal across the board everyone would use the same numbers.

    What is your game plan? How do you adjust? If it was all about luck weíd see the same game plan against the Steelers every week. But we donít. Usually someone comes along and identifies and exploits a weakness that everyone else copies. Just think back when we were 11-0 last year. That was a house of cards that 11 teams couldnít figure out. Then the blue print was created and we were toast.

    Was it luck that someone figured out something 10 other teams couldnít? And why do certain teams play us better than others if all talent and coaching are equal and it comes down to luck?

    Often times, numbers will support 2 completely opposite stories. Numbers can always be manipulated to explain anything. Someone always does a better job of interpreting and ends up with an advantage as a result.

    All that said, Iím a big believer in luck. But I think most of the luck happens long before guys even realize they want to play football. And I also believe you as an individual have to get lucky and bet on yourself in the right way to be successful. And then put in the work to make it happen.

    The odds of anyone being Tom Brady again are pretty close to 0. So for anyone to end up better, itís gonna take a lot of luck and a lot of hard work. And it probably still wonít work out cause that guy got so lucky.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by flippy View Post
    Sure good luck always matters. It’s the source of everything. Did someone hit the generic lottery? Some just have better DNA. Some are just smarter. Some recover from injuries faster. Etc. Etc. Etc.

    But there’s so many variables that go into football that luck to some degree is saying I don’t understand it so it must be God.

    There are all sorts of stats and odd of success. And sometimes Mike T gets a gut feeling telling him to go all in when the odds are against him because it’s the only path he sees to victory. To me his boneheaded decisions support the luck theory.

    But there’s so many other factors in building and coaching a team. How do you spend your salary cap? If it was equal across the board everyone would use the same numbers.

    What is your game plan? How do you adjust? If it was all about luck we’d see the same game plan against the Steelers every week. But we don’t. Usually someone comes along and identifies and exploits a weakness that everyone else copies. Just think back when we were 11-0 last year. That was a house of cards that 11 teams couldn’t figure out. Then the blue print was created and we were toast.

    Was it luck that someone figured out something 10 other teams couldn’t? And why do certain teams play us better than others if all talent and coaching are equal and it comes down to luck?

    Often times, numbers will support 2 completely opposite stories. Numbers can always be manipulated to explain anything. Someone always does a better job of interpreting and ends up with an advantage as a result.

    All that said, I’m a big believer in luck. But I think most of the luck happens long before guys even realize they want to play football. And I also believe you as an individual have to get lucky and bet on yourself in the right way to be successful. And then put in the work to make it happen.

    The odds of anyone being Tom Brady again are pretty close to 0. So for anyone to end up better, it’s gonna take a lot of luck and a lot of hard work. And it probably still won’t work out cause that guy got so lucky.
    Luck matters a fair amount.

    When Cam tips a ball at the LoS, that's skill.

    But there's a lot of chance for how it bounces up off his hand (and eventually other-Cam can grab it).

    Or how the ball bounces after the punt block. Does it bounce through the endzone for a safety? Or does it bounce out of play near the goal line? Or does it bounce right up into a guy's hands as he's running toward it so he can carry on into the end zone.

    There's some level of chance involved when Ben fumbles the ball but it bounces back to him instead of an opponent.

    None of this means that preparation doesn't matter. Or that the most prepared / skillful guys are the ones that are more likely to be able to capitalize on the opportunities that chance presents.

    But chance matters. It's a big part of the reason that single elimination playoff tournaments are exciting. It's not fun if the favorite wins all the time (which is why I like single elimination tournaments better than 7 game series).

    And that's just playing of the game (vs. the injuries). How many times had Dupree done a similar thing that he did last season before tearing up his knee? Every time you do a move like that, you throw the dice. Usually it comes up "doesn't need surgery". How many times had Shazier made a tackle like the one that temporarily paralyzed him and ended his career?
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 11-23-2021 at 03:58 PM.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by "BuzzNuter" View Post
    Luck is important if you don't eliminate all the other sources for losing. Look at Bill Belichek. I know he cheats but what about his players. They have always been able to think. They control themselves. How many times have you seen players mess up because they get mad or upset and stop thinking. Too much emotional action can lead to error. Belichek uses discipline or regimen in everything. Stress thinking and logical football reaction. That's how he gets the most from his players. Eliminate the things you can control and then luck is not so important.
    I suppose there are other ways to do it. Draft great talent but that also involves luck. Support your players and be a players coach. We have that and how is that working. Belichek has a process that seems to work but it is difficult to implement in todays culture. He is a dinosaur.
    A dinosaur who is back in first place in his division. Unfortunately
    From the 2010-2020 season, (A 11 year period that the majority of Cowher's players & coaches had left) Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games. And two of those wins were against back up Quarterbacks. Currently, Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in 4 years.

    Dolphin fans in the 90ís held on to Don Shula for too long for what he did in the playoffs in the 70ís...
    Are the same as Steeler fans (of 2021 ) holding on to Tomlin for too long for what he did in 2008, with Cowher's players & coaches.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    By and large, though, if you consistently prepare properly, remain disciplined, and are able to make adjustments, you're going to have a lot more success in the face of "bad luck" than the teams that are inconsistent in their preparation, discipline, and ability to adjust.
    I agree, well said.
    Steel Maniac when he's wrong: "My predictions are time based." lmao

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    Luck matters a fair amount.

    When Cam tips a ball at the LoS, that's skill.

    But there's a lot of chance for how it bounces up off his hand (and eventually other-Cam can grab it).

    Or how the ball bounces after the punt block. Does it bounce through the endzone for a safety? Or does it bounce out of play near the goal line? Or does it bounce right up into a guy's hands as he's running toward it so he can carry on into the end zone.

    There's some level of chance involved when Ben fumbles the ball but it bounces back to him instead of an opponent.

    None of this means that preparation doesn't matter. Or that the most prepared / skillful guys are the ones that are more likely to be able to capitalize on the opportunities that chance presents.

    But chance matters. It's a big part of the reason that single elimination playoff tournaments are exciting. It's not fun if the favorite wins all the time (which is why I like single elimination tournaments better than 7 game series).

    And that's just playing of the game (vs. the injuries). How many times had Dupree done a similar thing that he did last season before tearing up his knee? Every time you do a move like that, you throw the dice. Usually it comes up "doesn't need surgery". How many times had Shazier made a tackle like the one that temporarily paralyzed him and ended his career?
    good examples and Iím with you on there being lots of luck.

    but Iím also down with people make their own luck.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by flippy View Post
    good examples and I’m with you on there being lots of luck.

    but I’m also down with people make their own luck.
    I agree with you that being prepared (and talented) is the best way to make the best of the opportunities chance brings us.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by flippy View Post
    good examples and I’m with you on there being lots of luck.

    but I’m also down with people make their own luck.
    I used to say this about Ed Reed. It seemed like so many of his ints were balls that were just tipped and landed softly in his hands. Any one would look like the easiest, luckiest play a safety could make. However, when it is consistent that every time you saw a ball downfield, you also saw #20, you realize that nobody can actually be that lucky, he had an insane nose for the ball.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    A dinosaur who is back in first place in his division. Unfortunately
    Mac Jones is the prefect QB for the Cheats. Shows how a rookie QB contract can work wonders for building a solid team.

    Also, it looks like the Bills aren’t used to driving out front. Maybe they aren’t as good as everyone thought this offseason?
    Tomlinís coming back so what can you do?


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