DeVille Does De Offseason - 2021

[SteelerOfDeVille]

I know, it's been a couple of years since I've done this. And you've waited. You'll be rewarded.

I have a series of posts coming in this thread, not only discussing the prior season, but the upcoming season, including my own mock (doesn't everyone do one at this point?) So, let's jump in:

2020 Season

It was amazing. Then it was a struggle. We were left to wonder what happened overnight to cause Ben to suddenly NOT have a long-ball. Early in the season, his connection with Claypool was strong. It made me moist. But, touch me in the morning and walk away, it was gone. Seriously, I wonder if the injury against the Cowboys was a bigger deal than we were allowed to know. Whatever the case, the deep-ball was replaced with hot potato and suddenly Ben was getting rid of the ball faster than Janet Jackson did her bra at the halftime show.

As Super Bowl windows go -- losing Bush, then Bud, then VW for a spell -- I believe the SB window officially closed on Big Ben's tenure as a Steeler (excluding a few Nugenix pills from Flutie and Frank Thomas). But, I give the FO credit -- the FO did it's damndest to hold it together and looked like geniuses picking up Avery Williamson along the way (especially once VW went out). Then, somebody started sniping the o-linemen like... nevermind... too soon (and too frequent, for that matter).

But, clearly someone forgot their lucky rabbit's foot as injuries piled up on the o-line. I recall one point watching a game where I thought, "uh. who would come in NOW if any of them got hurt?" (anyone remember which game that was?)

So, I'll admit that after the fact: I always love the emotional roller-coaster of each season. Right up to the point where you realize that the team isn't contender (sometimes that happens deep into the playoffs). This season, by 11-2, I knew that if something didn't change with the offensive play calling, this team was toast like a secondary with Charred Scott and Burnt Alexander. (Talk about wasting Ben's prime years..... but, I digress)

The good news with this FO is that I think some of the recent moves indicate that the team is in rebuild during mode so there's never really a losing season. I don't anticipate many (if any) dreadful seasons. What I *do* see possibly happening is the team eventually takes a mid-first round QB somewhere along the way. But, that selection only after taking one more shot on someone else's reject (Tribusky, Darnold, Mariota - who I actually wouldn't mind)

By the way, taking a QB in the first is a bigger risk than other positions. Like SIGNIFICANTLY bigger likelhood of failure (this has been studied and proven as a statistical fact). Think about it, more than any other position, they move up for absolutely ZERO reason - LARGE moves on the boards. When ACTUAL football play ended, Mac Jones was a consensus early-to-mid second rounder. I've now seen him mocked in the top 8 by CBS.
Did you know that 2 out of 3 first round QBs never even reach their conference championship game during their career?
There's VERY high likelihood for failure at drafting a 1st round QB. As I said, it's a much higher failure rate than any other position. What in the Ryan Leaf are we doing asking for a tank of a season?


NEXT UP: If I'm already referring to the draft, I may as well post some of it.

[hawaiiansteel]

nice work DeVille, I look forward to seeing the rest of your thoughts!

[Buzz]

Good write up. Looking forward to your draft musings.

[Steel Maniac]

Good write up. Looking forward to your draft musings.

Me too. Love hearing different draft angles.

[hawaiiansteel]

By the way, taking a QB in the first is a bigger risk than other positions. Like SIGNIFICANTLY bigger likelhood of failure (this has been studied and proven as a statistical fact). Think about it, more than any other position, they move up for absolutely ZERO reason - LARGE moves on the boards. When ACTUAL football play ended, Mac Jones was a consensus early-to-mid second rounder. I've now seen him mocked in the top 8 by CBS.
Did you know that 2 out of 3 first round QBs never even reach their conference championship game during their career?
There's VERY high likelihood for failure at drafting a 1st round QB. As I said, it's a much higher failure rate than any other position. What in the Ryan Leaf are we doing asking for a tank of a season?

agree completely.

the Rams and Eagles mortgaged the farm for Goff and Wentz, I'll bet they both regret that now.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

nice work DeVille, I look forward to seeing the rest of your thoughts!

Good write up. Looking forward to your draft musings.

Me too. Love hearing different draft angles.

Thanks guys, Work has been kicking my butt and I needed a release. LMAO.

I often find myself entertaining MYSELF.

[SteelerOfDeVille]

My plan was to actually put a mock here, but i realized something. You need need perspective of where I'm coming from, BEFORE we talk picks.

So, lemme get serious and fully discuss the logic I'm using here. It's clear that the team has lots of needs this year and I believe that more than the typical year, you'll need a good understanding of what talent is typically available in each round of the draft.

For example, while you'd take a generational talent at NT in the first, you have to ALSO understand that you can get GOOD ones in the 3rd and 4th. The one that you take in the 1st may mean that you pass on a premium position elsewhere to hope for 3rd round talent to become starter at LT (much harder to accomplish). Instead of 2 starters, you drafted one starter and a backup OT who may develop down the line.

Similar concept at RB - I'm guessing that there are as many day 2 drafted starters as there are day 1 starters in the league. C? Unless he's a freak of nature who can snap, pull and get the guy on the 2nd level then destroy him with ease (which there are NONE in this draft) then a 1st round pick is a waste. There isn't one those guys in THIS draft, so, all of you Rocky 8 fans need to leave Creed to Michael B Jordan if you're not talking trade down.

Secondly, let's assess the teams current roster.
On Offense, they've lost 3 of 5 starting offensive linemen (Pouncey, Feiler, AV). We're all expecting Banner to be re-signed, but I'm guessing he bets on himself again and targets a 1-year deal. Basically, if he's bad, you'll want to replace him, but if he's good, ya may not be able to afford him. So, OT is on the short list to draft. DeCastro's performnce made you wonder if he was struggling because he was thinking about covering for Pouncey or if he just aged faster than your typical pro-bowl guard in the NFL. So, you'd consider an OG in this draft. And Pouncey's retirement means C is in play (just not in the first).

On Defense, they've lost a handful of good-to-stud type players (Bud, VW, Alualu, Nelson, Hilton). That's 2 LB and 2 CB, for those counting. Not to mention Bush's injury -- here's to a full recovery -- but LB is a bigger need than some think. I'd honestly like to see a Timmons -- "are we going OLB or ILB? He could do either" -- but, apparently THAT guy has a team full of players who hate him (I'll revisit Zaven, later)

Heck, had they retained everyone that they came out of last season with -- we'd still have had a position or two (like RB) that most of us wanted upgraded. Not to mention Ben's likely in his final season (I might cry... manly like, tho)

For this draft, unless you get a Barry Sanders, the o-line can't be as bad as this one's going to be. So, RB in the 1st is out cuz there aint a Sanders. There aint even a Warrick Dunn. (Ok, Harris looks a little LaDanian Tomlinson... dammit, now I'm thinking about the commercial with him and Polamalu)

I see CB as a position that they will mostly handle like they did with Haden and Nelson for the foreseeable future - I would imagine this to be the #2 bust position in the 1st round behind QB. But, this year in particular, I struggle because the team has SO MANY needs.

With all that, I'm down to QB, OT, OG, OLB, ILB and CB in the first, with talent being the priority. I'm ashamed to say that by the time I add RB, C, NT

Reminder: I'm of the opinion that while the team needs a position, they aren't all first round picks (NT is an example most of us can agree on)

My 1st round Big Board (with guys I think may have a chance to be there, in order of how *I* rank them as seletions in the first.).

Christian Darrisaw - technique and strength to play either OT position. Likely gone when the team drafts but has been my fav of the guys within range.
Teven Jenkins - Size and power set him apart; seems to be moving up draft boards too quickly and may be gone where the team selects
Jalen Mayfield - Size and technique to be either tackle, but may need a little time in the weightroom to REALLY blossom, but an NFL starter
Nick Bolton - I know, I know. Offensive line is a need. A huge need. But I don't feel good at LB. AT ALL. Next to Bush, this ILB could be scary good.
Alijah Vera-Tucker - Some consider him to be an OT (which he did "good" in college). Some consider him to be an OG (which he did "well" in college). I consider him to be a good fit (which will look "great" in BnG).
Mac Jones - I'm scared of him because he almost always had a clean pocket. Apparently, Siri tells all my business and he knows that I believe this -- and he tried to prove me wrong at his pro day.
Samuel Cosmi - Something about him screams Alejandro Villanuava to me. Solid technician, good agility and may take some time to get NFL strength. Granted, he's younger than when we got AV, so, I wouldn't be mad
Zaven Collins - Seriously, this is Timmons-like talent. But, we've had enough talented douches. They are amazing for about 2-3 seasons. Then they either have absurd contract demands or get into barfights. If the team can interview him and come away with something different than what we've all heard about his personality, I'd bump him up there ahead of Bolton at ILB. Remember the Jags run-d against Bell that year? We'd have it
Greg Newsome II - sub 4.4 in the 40 time. Held QBs to 30-some QB rating when thrown at. Measurables and performance. I'd chance it if this is where we are
Asante Samuel Jr - sometimes bloodlines just get me. His daddy was a beast and he seems to be headed down the same path.
Wyatt Davis - the one and only pure guard on this list. He's really a plug and play guard. Depends on how you feel about DeCastro.


Other fan favorites and what I see
Najee Harris - this is the best RB in this draft. Early on, some folks had him behind Etienne (I didn't) but, this guy is a fairly complete package. Size, Speed, Vision, 3rd down. He's an every down back. Not a generational talent (i was generous with the LT2 reference earlier), but is certainly capable of carrying a team's 3-down load.
Travis Etienne - dude has good speed. But, for a smaller back he has ZERO wiggle. He's a 1-cut guy, plants a foot and goes. If a Terrell Davis era Broncos-like team takes him, he will shine. Reminds me of Fast Willie Parker
Creed Humphrey - He's clearly the best C in what appears to be a very average draft for C. I watched tape. He has decent feet and agility, but didn't see much movement. He's a "wall a guy off" kind of blocker, with minimal power. He's like, "Imma just stand right here between you and the RB, mmmKay?". I have visions of NFL bull rushers riding him right back to the QB.
Alex Leatherwood - massive man with positional flexibility, but IMO projects at OG due to lack of agility. This team uses guards to get on the 2nd level - a task, I'm not sure that he could consistently do well.
Trevon Moehrig - Not really sure why the team is looking at another FS when Minkah has that on lock. If he was an SS, I'd buy it. Otherwise, I'd look CB - I keep reading their thinking Slot CB (I bet Minkah would b a helluva blitzer filling Hilton's role)

Next up: actual pick projections

[Northern_Blitz]

Thanks Deville.

It's well thought out and entertaining.

I always appreciate posts about prospects because I don't follow the NCAA and this gives me some guys to look at.

Not knowing much about the players, I think I agree with your approach and classification on needs.

In an ideal world, I think if want is to be able to hit on a stud CB (or QB but that's toi much of a stretch this year IMO). But I don't think I trust our track record there.

So I think I'm going for a very good OL that can play for a decade or so.

[steeler_george]

So far I agree with everything you are saying, especially how ILB is a big need the should be upgraded. I was all for ILB in the 1st about a month ago, until the Nelson effect.

But sad thing, when you look whats available ( C, RB, OT, NT, CB ) in FA and draft to improve the team I think the hardest position to fill is RB, and with C and ILB the easiest to fill or "cover up", by surrounding those holes with strong players.

This draft in my opinion is sneaky deep at C and ILB. And the gap from the 1st round talent to the 3rd-4th round talent is not that much differ. Where as there is a HUGE difference from the 1st three ranked RB and the 2nd tier ranked RB. To me having a run game will benefit both sides of the ball the most. Winning time of posession and a dynamic scoring ability on the offense will be the key next year. No more will we relay on the D to be a shut out D. We will still be a good D.

We need to add a dynamic RB, first and foremost ( in the draft). Then approach the middle of the D (NT, ILB, and slot DB) I would hope we solve one or two of these positions in FA. Then it is about OL ..starter C FA?, depth and develope at OT)

I think this time tomorrow ( Friday) at the most Monday, we will have addressed 2 or 3 starting positions ( NT, ILB, C, slot D)-pause, deep breath- sheesh I add AV nd Conner <shoot me dead) via FA .

[steeler_george]

So far I agree with everything you are saying, especially how ILB is a big need the should be upgraded. I was all for ILB in the 1st about a month ago, until the Nelson effect. ( the defense will take a hit, even if it does recover it will not be the D of '19 or early '20)

Sad thing, when you look whats available ( C, RB, OT, NT, CB ) in FA and draft to improve the team I think the hardest position to fill is RB, and with C and ILB the easiest to fill or "cover up", by surrounding those holes with strong players.

This draft in my opinion is sneaky deep at C and ILB., where the gap, at both positions, from the 1st round talent to the 3rd-4th round talent is not that much differ. Where as there is a HUGE difference from the 1st three ranked RB and the 2nd tier ranked RB. To me having a run game will benefit both sides of the ball the most. Winning time of posession and a dynamic scoring ability on the offense will be the key next year. No more will we relay on the D to be a shut out D. We will still be a good D.

We need to add a dynamic RB, first and foremost ( in the draft). Then approach the middle of the D (NT, ILB, and slot DB) I would hope we solve one or two of these positions in FA. Then it is about OL ..starter C FA?, depth and develope at OT)

I think this time tomorrow ( Friday) at the most Monday, we will have addressed 2 or 3 starting positions ( NT, ILB, C, slot D)-pause, deep breath- sheesh I add AV nd Conner <shoot me dead) via FA .