BAL at PIT

[NorthCoast]

It's a bit early on this but I got a ton of things to get done for Turkey Day tomorrow so here it is. There's only a few experts that have put their picks in and 95% are taking the Steelers straight up (forget about being a dog and sneaking up on opponents this season ). Rather than looking at NFL ranks I thought it best to look at the last matchup between these teams:

BAL Offense:

• BAL is tied for CHI in the number of different formations they've used this season (total of 12). Against PIT they used mostly 11 or 12 personnel with a handful of 21 and 22 personnel.
• Rushing out of 11 personnel they averaged 5.9 yds/att, out of 12 they average 6.4 yds.
• BAL was in shotgun >95% of plays against the Steelers; when under center they ran 100% of the time (maybe an indication they don't trust LJ to turn his back on the defense?).
• BAL offense is explosive; they had 6 explosive runs and 4 explosive passes against the Steelers so the defense didn't do much to slow this down. But fortunately this was partly diminished by timely Steeler takeaways in the game (4).
• LJ as a passer completed 13 of 26 atts with successful play rate of 46% and QBR of 70.7. (in case your curious Roethlisberger was 21 of 32 with 56% success and QBR of 101.3).
• BAL went no-huddle on one play (Steelers used no-huddle on 15 plays with 60% success, all passing).

BAL Defense:

• Defense limited PIT offense to just 2 explosive plays, one run and one pass (doesn't say much here since the Steelers are middling in explosive plays in general).
• Steelers most effective in the middle of the field against BAL using Ebron (4 rec on 5 targets for 9.6 yds/att) and Claypool in the slot. Expect they will try to do the same in this game.
• BAL defense did a decent job against the run (3.2 yds/att). No surprise there . But Steeler WRs had a decent day with a 57% success rate on down and distance).

These teams are built to battle each other and expect BAL will not go down easy. I also expect them to take more shots down field in the hopes of a few big plays to go up early. They are beat up physically from the Titans game and personnel-wise with covid. This is a chance for LJ to redeem his season and carry the team to a win. I just don't think he has it in him.

Steelers 23
Ravens 19

[Oviedo]

Good guys win 27-13

We get 4 sacks and 2 INTs

Jackson fumbles at least once...I'm betting on twice

Hold bad guys to less than 100 yards rushing

[flippy]

Good insight NC.

Baltimore will have more turnovers than points.

I'm not sure how much a few games ago applies now that we have Hilton and Alualu back on D. We still have a lot of weaknesses, but we've had a lot of moving parts and I see us from here on out dialing in on D. I'm leaning toward we'll really dial it in after this week and this will be our last grind it out.

I think you have to dare LJ to throw early and often. He'll likely make some plays, but we've got to get some turnovers too. I think we're going to live and die this season on getting opportunistic turnovers.

We have a lot of great performers on D, but I'm not sure what we're ever going to get out of the unit. I take comfort on their ability to lock down and close out games. I think we can turn that into a 60 minute thing eventually.

[whisper]

Reports are that Balt. has more players/staff with covid. May still be delayed.

[NorthCoast]

Reports are that Balt. has more players/staff with covid. May still be delayed.

Shaping up to be very convenient for them.

[Ghost]

Moved to Sunday.

[Buzz]

Moved to Sunday.

The league will do anything they can to help the Ravens out in this situation.

[Starlifter]

What a load of horse$hit. Tomlin should get 6-7 third stringers exposed so we can get a bye week.

NFL says it’s for safety. I bet it’s to get all the rats players available.

[Buzz]

What a load of horse$hit. Tomlin should get 6-7 third stringers exposed so we can get a bye week.

NFL says it’s for safety. I bet it’s to get all the rats players available.

Yep. Hairball knew the Rats didn't stand a chance the way it was, so he called and asked uncle Rog to help them out.

Makes 2 games altered on short notice to the disadvantage of the Steelers.

[Ghost]

I’m ok with pushing the game. All the players who tested positive are out for 10 days minimum so still out for Sunday.

The issue is the testing. Even if a player tested negative tomorrow he still might be able to infect other players (possibly Steelers) because it can take 3 to 5 days to show up positive on a test. This gives everyone an extra 4-5 days of testing to ensure the game is safe.

Better to move the game than have a phenomenal season derailed by COVID b/c they forced it .

If Baltimore can’t go Sunday it should be a forfeit.