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Thread: PIT at TEN

  1. #1
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    PIT at TEN

    The experts' picks are coming in slow on this game. Currently favoring PIT by a narrow 57% margin. Expect that this gap will continue to close as more picks come in. This is a great matchup between similar teams. Taking a closer look;

    TEN Offense
    • Throwback football here; TEN likes to run out of multiple alignments including 12, 21, 13, 22 formations. They run with 3 TEs about 10% of the time. This is smashmouth. When they do pass it's generally 11 personnel, but also use 21. They rarely use 4 WRs. Their run/pass ratio is identical to PIT.
    • TEN is all about keeping it 3rd and short where they rank 7th in the NFL converting 75%. Get them in 3rd and long and they drop to 29th in the league converting only 1 in 4 times.
    • Tannenhill is an efficient QB and doesn't throw INTs (2). He favors 8 to 10 yd routes in the middle of the field (sound familiar?).
    • While Junno leads their TE group with over 230 yds more than half that is YAC, so PIT defense better lock up tackles. They throw to Firsker as well (he had a big game last week against HOU).
    • Their OL doesn't give up sacks (#1 with 5 allowed); they are great in converting TDs in the RZ (3rd at 78%). They are 2nd in pts/gm but some of that is gifted by taking advantage of mistakes by opponents, with a +6 TO differential (#1 in NFL; PIT is #4 at +5).


    TEN Defense
    • Defense is not the strength of TEN team; they are 28th and 26th in passing and rushing yds allowed, respectively. But they go after the ball when it's in the air, with 6 INTs total.
    • Opponents take advantage of the weak pass defense allowing 13 TDs (26th).... woe, I am visioning 7-11 will be open for business!
    • They don't get to the QB very often (7 sacks total); Roethlisberger should have a relatively stress-free day with plenty of time to look for downfield throws. Load up on PIT WRs for your fantasy teams!


    I'd feel better about this game if it was at home. I'd also feel better if Bush was patrolling the middle of the field. That said, the Steelers have seen this picture before... stop the run, keep it 3rd and long and the W should be theirs.


  2. #2
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    Steelers in a "tight-un"

    29-27

  3. #3
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    This game should be a lock , were great against the run and titans arnt great at passing to win. The games that scare me are the trap games that we should win like bengals or someone soft.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    Steelers in a "tight-un"

    29-27
    another blowout 35-17 then we become complacent and lose a trap game.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by norcalsteel View Post
    This game should be a lock , were great against the run and titans arnt great at passing to win.
    Hope you're right, but I suspect losing Bush might hurt our D more than you think

  6. #6
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    I think that the difference between being in a dogfight and an easy game is #22. Don't know if there is a more obvious statement than that. If the D keeps him somewhat in check, that gives the O a chance to put up some points and open up a lead. If you get the lead and force the Tennessee offense to become a one dimensional passing game then you face a below average passing threat (their current passing success is based on the threat of Henry in the backfield).

    I will say the same thing next week, however, if you stop the Ravens O, it will not be as easy to score against their D and jump out to a lead.

  7. #7
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    This games scares me; we lose Bush right when we have to deal with a monster RB who gets to the second level often and forces the second level to have to support the first level.

    Score....27-24

    And it could go either way depending on who turns the ball over more.
    From the 2010-2019 season, (A 9 year period that the majority of Cowher's players & coaches had left) Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games. And two of those wins were against back up Quarterbacks.

    Dolphin fans in the 90ís who wanted to hold on to Don Shula for what he did in the playoffs in the 70ís...
    Are the same as Steeler fans (of 2020 ) holding on to Tomlin for what he did in 2008, with Cowher's players & coaches

  8. #8
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    interesting stat:

    NFL Research
    @NFLResearch

    Oct 21

    Steelers at Titans is the 5th game in NFL history between 2 undefeated teams in Week 7 or later (excluding strike seasons)

    The winner of the previous 4 such games went on to make the Super Bowl that season


    https://twitter.com/NFLResearch/stat...F3728092001%2F

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    This games scares me; we lose Bush right when we have to deal with a monster RB who gets to the second level often and forces the second level to have to support the first level.

    Score....27-24

    And it could go either way depending on who turns the ball over more.
    I don't feel great about this one either.

    It kind of has shades of the Jacksonville playoff game.

    There are differences though.

    At the time, Shazier was really the only big play maker on the D. Now we have a bunch of guys that add splash on the defensive side of the ball, so I don't think losing Bush will be as bad as losing 50 was.

    And the Jags had a generational D that year. The Titans aren't bad on D, but they aren't great either.

    And this year we have had an amazing run defense (although losing Bush probably hurts this).

    I think it will be close.

    But I think the good guys win if Ben continues to take care of the football. I hope we can get up early so it takes their running game out of it a little.

    Good guys win: 28 - 24.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    This games scares me; we lose Bush right when we have to deal with a monster RB who gets to the second level often and forces the second level to have to support the first level.

    Score....27-24

    And it could go either way depending on who turns the ball over more.
    I think we'll miss Bush more next week against an RB like Jackson - fast, shifty, can run east west as well as north south than against Henry - north south power runner. I think that VW has potential for a big game if he can plug up the middle and meet Henry whereas Bush's speed would be needed to chase down Lamar and cut off angles.

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