Pavelle Steelers’ Mock Draft: Version 1.0
By Scott Pavelle
Posted on January 20, 2020
2:17 RB J.K. Dobbins.
HV 1:25 RB J.K. Dobbins, Ohio St. (Junior). 5’10”, 217 lbs. Dobbins is probably the most likely RB target for Pittsburgh in Round 2, and no one should complain if they land him. Nick Farabaugh’s gif-supported January scouting report gives a good overview: smaller and less of a load than James Conner, but possessing an equally rounded skill set with the addition of breakaway speed, better acceleration, more quickness in space, and no history of health problems. Bulk him up just a little and you’d get a Maurice Jones-Drew vibe: the classic bowling ball with good moves and acceptable hands. One can question his ceiling in pass protection due to the lack of size, or raise doubts because he played behind a great college OL, but the same is true for the other top backs in this draft. Almost no RB succeeds when the line allows penetration.
Dobbins is a Round 1 talent with all the assets you want for a bell cow back, and his running style fits the blocking schemes already in place. He’s a different back than the bigger and stronger Conner, but won’t require a different set of plays. Sold!
3:35 (Estimated Compensatory Pick) TE Albert Okwuegbunam
HV 3:24 TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri. (RS Junior). 6’5”, 255 lbs. He looks the part showed marvelous hands in 2018 with Drew Lock as his Quarterback. Great things were expected for 2019 and… they simply didn’t happen. Was it the step down in QB quality? The rumored clash with that new QB on a personal level? Or limitations in his abilities that Lock’s high-end play had disguised? We do not know, and that makes for a hard evaluation. At this point he appears to be more of a steady athlete in the old fashioned TE mold than a mismatch guy for the modern era, but he is also one of the players where a good Combine could be in the cards. Back in the day he’d be viewed as a poor in-line blocker, but that’s pretty good for this particular class. Here is a Dave Bryan “contextualization” piece on A-OK’s 2019 catches.
4:18 BPA at Offensive Line? That’s my instinct but let’s go with… DL Leki Fotu
“Need” is a tiebreaker. If Leki Fotu falls to Round 4 – unlikely, but possible – he would almost certainly be the best talent around and there will be no tie to break. Here is the current Big Board description:
HV 3:12 NT Leki Fotu, Utah. (Senior). 6’5″, 335 lbs. Probably the best semi-possible target for a NT after Round 2, Fotu has been described as a “versatile wrecking ball” with all the natural assets you want from a two-gap defender with pass rushing potential. Good motor, good effort, wonderful strength… He could rank even higher but for a serious need for coaching to make use of his natural leverage, understand his duties, and make tackles in addition to blowing up blocking schemes.
Mike Tomlin once described 1990’s-era, immovable-object Nose Tackles as the Blockbuster Video of defensive positions. No doubt that has a lot of truth. But the Titans’ success in this year’s playoff run, and the Jaguars’ in 2017, proves to me that powerful running attacks can still gut any NFL defense that does not have that particular VHS tape waiting on the shelf. Leki Fotu should be able to replace Hargrave with no decline in run stuffing ability. That is Round 5 value all on its own. The hope that he can do it with only a small decline as a pass rush is enough to raise his grade significantly.
Look folks: Javon Hargrave was a fringe-1st talent. Getting him in Round 3 was a world class steal! Leki Fotu in Round 4 would also be highway robbery, just at the truck-of-iPhones level rather than an armored car of jewels. I’ll take it.
4:29 Our pick from Tennessee-via-Miami turns into… Guard Michael Owenu
HV 4:01 G Michael Onwenu, Michigan. (Senior). 6’3”, 362 lbs. with long 34½” arms. Sleeper alert! Owenwu was a defensive NT who moved to Guard, and he is every bit as big, wide, strong, and long as that suggests. The question marks obviously go to his mastery of OL technique versus all the parallel bits that are Trenches-In-General, and his ability to pull and/or to reach and pin linebackers on the second level. He jumped up the Board after impressing all watchers with his movement at the Shrine Bowl practices; a trend that continued and led TDN’s Benjamin Solak to call him, “clearly the best offensive lineman here on either team.” Could he climb to the second level and pin the likes of Devin Bush? That’s a big ask, but he’d be a hell of an obstacle even for someone with that kind of mobility. Ask Devin. They did play on the same team.
6:19 BPA at WR, Safety, ILB, or Center. Let’s go with… Safety Tanner Muse, Clemson.
Here is the current Big Board entry:
HV 6:01 SAF Tanner Muse, Clemson. (RS Senior). 6’2”, 230 lbs. A fine Day 3 target who will have a long NFL career on special teams if nothing else. Turns 24 as a rookie, which reduces his value a bit from the Pittsburgh perspective. He’s also something of a straight line athlete comparable to a bigger and faster version of the Steelers’ Marcus Allen. But the size, savvy, and speed are real. Tanner Muse ran down Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins, a late-1st prospect, for a game saving, shoestring tackle in their Bowl game! And isn’t straight line speed the essential characteristic for a backup who might have to play single-high if Fitzpatrick gets hurt, with this kind of size as the ideal for a backup to Edmunds? Muse has played both roles for Clemson, and could for Pittsburgh too. That adds real value despite his flaws in the COD department, and the concomitant issues in coverage.
7:18 WR James Proche, SMU.
Let’s be real, people. It’s January! There is zero chance that anyone can get a good take on what is likely to happen twenty-something picks before Mr. Irrelevant is chosen in April. I’m only throwing out a name because it’s required to play the game fair. So why Proche (pronounced “pro-SHAY”)? It’s because I actually watched the film snippets in Daniel Valente’s gif-supported scouting report and I came away impressed.
This is a player with a skill set in the mold of Antonio Brown and Diontae Johnson. Pittsburgh’s offense has made better use of that skill set than anyone this side of Tom Brady, so why not reinforce success? Yes, I would prefer a genuine deep threat. Yes, I would prefer a titan-sized jump ball specialist. But at this point in the draft there isn’t going to be a speedster or a basketball Center more promising than the team’s current depth in WR’s Deon Cain, Amara Darboh, and Johnny Holton, combined with the 6’8” TE Zach Gentry (f/k/a “Lurch”) and the 6’9” TE Christian Scotland-Williamson.
Proche has as good a chance to stick with the team as any other Day 3 pick, and might be able to free up some cap room by replacing Ryan Switzer (who I like more than most, but not enough to protect him from rookie competition). Good enough for me.
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