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Thread: Reality: Salary Cap and making decisions

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    To update the numbers for this year, 3 of the top 5 cap hit QBs missed the playoffs (and 10 of the top 15)

    So this year, 33% teams with a QB in the top 15 cap hits made the playoffs (5/15). Teams with QBs outside the top 15 cap hits made the playoffs at 41% (7/17).

    As with all positions, you win in a cap league when you pay your talent less than market value.

    Brady isn't on this list because he's got the 18th cap hit. He may be declining, but he's still better than 17 other QBs.

    Rodgers and Brees are in the top 15, but they're also paid below their ranking at the position IMO. Wentz is ranked 16th in cap hit.

    Again we see the benefit of good QBs on Rookie deals. AFC favorites Baltimore (32nd) and KC (27th) are playing on easy mode with good QBs on cheap rookie deals. Josh Allen made the playoffs (26th). Tennehil isn't even on the list at Sportrac, but he'd be 38th. I don't see Mariota either, but he'd be about 25.

    Ben is paid above his ranking at the position IMO, but there will probably be new contracts this year that push his cap hit down the list.
    The flaw here is not overpaying QBs. It is QBs that dont perform.
    Flacco is done. Ben and Cam aint even playing. Carr and Foles? Yeah they ARE overpaid...because they are not that good.

    The top "performing" QBs are almost ALL playing in the post season regardless salary.
    This is precisely why you pay the greats ones, (while they are great).

    Whether our investment in Ben pans out is dependent on his play.

    The concern is not whether that is too much for a QB, the issue is whether that is too much for a fat old QB for whom staying in shape has never been a priorty.

    If Ben is at his best...the money is worth it.
    The likelihood though is he wont be...he will be more "Flacco" than "Brees".


    The real pattern has zero to do with pay. The issue is "play".
    Last edited by Captain Lemming; 01-07-2020 at 12:08 PM.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    Good article that explains the why of the salary cap mess the Steelers are in this year:

    By F. S. "Flip" Fisher@Flipsteeler Jan 7, 2020, 8:47am EST

    The Pittsburgh Steelers 2020 offseason started when they did not make the playoffs. As we all know, there is no true offseason in the NFL. One aspect that has become a hot topic here at BTSC is players the team should keep, ditch, and bring in via free agency. Before readers can fill out their wish list or take out their frustration and demand a player be jettisoned from the team, people need to be informed about the ramifications such a move would incur. Because of two quirks in the last year of the NFLís Collective Bargaining Agreement, the team cannot operate with the mentality of business as usual. (There are other quirks but they will not affect the Steelers.)

    What are the two quirks in the NFLís CBA that will affect the Steelers 2020 cap situation?

    The first, the 30 percent rule. What is it? A stipulation in the CBA states that a team cannot pay a player over 30 percent, on a restructured or new contract signed in 2020, from 2020 to 2021, 2021 to 2022, and 2022 to 2023. This also includes restructured deals.

    To put this into real-world scenario, letís look at Bud Dupree. If the Steelers wanted to give him a five year contract and his 2020 cap hit was $10 million, his 2021 salary could be no greater than $13 million. His cap hit for 2022 could not be greater than $16 million while his 2023 cap hit could not be greater than $19 million. In essence, no backloading the contact to give the team cap relief in 2020, which is desperately needed.

    Joe Hadenís contract is a prime example. He could not have signed his deal in 2020 because his second year cap hit of $12.6 million is over 30 percent greater than his first year of $8,716,668.

    The Steelers have for years structured contracts in a fashion that restructuring the deal down the road can happen. Because of the 30 percent rule, the team cannot save drastic amounts of cap space with a restructure. In a normal season, Stefon Tuitt would be a prime candidate for a restructure. His P5 (Base salary) is $9 million. The Steelers would normally give him $8 million of his P5 salary in the form of a signing bonus reducing his cap hit to $9.61 million. But such a move would cause his 2021 salary to be much greater than 30 percent of his 2020 cap number.

    The second quirk, the team cannot declare a player as a Post June 1 cut. What does that mean you ask? If a player has over one season left on his contract, his organization can opt to declare him as such and spread the dead money from the guaranteed money left on his contract over two seasons.

    To put this into perspective letís look at Ben Roethlisbergerís contact. Big Ben has two years left on his deal and has already been paid out his signing bonus. If the team feels that he cannot continue his playing career, they would cut him before his $12.5 million roster bonus due on March 22. Each of the next two seasons have $12.5 million in prorated signing bonus money. In a normal season, the team could opt to eat $12.5 million in dead money each season. Not 2020 though. The Steelers would have to eat the full $25 million in 2020.

    Why is the above so important to understand for 2020? Just glancing at Over the Cap and Steeler Nation will notice that the team is sitting on just under $4.9 million in cap space. This includes 2020 dead cap space, 2019 carryover money, and an increase of $12 million over 2019 season.

    That figure is for the 46 players under contract. (The Steelers have more that the team signed from the practice squad but OTC does not have them listed.) This is not even enough money to sign the teamís 2020 draft class which is projected to cost close to $5.1 million.

    What other costs are not included in OTCís figures? That is what I will tackle in the second part of this series, so be on the lookout for upcoming articles where I bloat the cap and then get the team in compliance with NFL rules.


    https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...ss-in-2020-nfl
    Thanks for this post. I didnít fully understand the quirks of the CBA before this. Thatís why i started the topic, to get some reality based discussion on the teamís off-season decisions. Before I thought we could pull off keeping Bud and some other key players, now I see the 30% rule will make a long-term contract very difficult with him, given Watt and Fitzpatrick looming in the future.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Lemming View Post
    The flaw here is not overpaying QBs. It is QBs that dont perform.
    Flacco is done. Ben and Cam aint even playing. Carr and Foles? Yeah they ARE overpaid...because they are not that good.

    The top "performing" QBs are almost ALL playing in the post season regardless salary.

    Whether our investment in Ben pans out is dependent on his play.

    The concern is not whether that is too much for a QB, the issue is whether that is too much for a fat old QB for whom staying in shape has never been a priorty.

    If Ben is at his best...the money is worth it.
    The likelihood though is he wont be...he will be more "Flacco" than "Brees".


    The real pattern has zero to do with pay. The issue is "play".
    I think you're wrong because there is a salary cap (but I would agree if there was no cap)

    I think the point is that teams that sign players for below market value have a better chance of winning than those that don't.

    And that QB is the most important position cap wise, so overpaying at QB is very bad for teams.

    It's like how housing is almost always the highest expense for people.

    You can make your own coffee / latte as often as you want, but you're generally screwed financially if you massively overpay for a house (or rent).

    In our case, it's very hard to imagine Ben out playing his contract (which I said when it was signed before he was injured).

    We made a big bet hoping for a push at best.

    I get why we did it (although I don't understand why we didn't wait another year). But when aging QBs take market value elite QB money, I think their teams would be expected to underperformed expectations based only on QB talent (which will probably be skewed based on past accomplishments)
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 01-07-2020 at 01:29 PM.
    Talent vs coaching: [url]www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/48851-Poll-Question-for-Everyone/page14[/url]

    Steelers vs. Other Teams with good QBs: ... /47985-Steelers-most-successful-failure/page5

    Tomlin playoff record vs. expectations (Cowher pg24): ... /48742-Rooney-Brown-meeting/page22

    Tomlin's Las year: ... 49599-Just-sayin?p=778284#post778284

    Maniac Talent>Coaching: ...49632-Trades?p=779158#post779158

  4. #44
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    Think of this HORRIBLE THOUGHT:

    Bill Belechick almost did the unthinkable.
    He almost transitioned from one top QB to the next WITHOUT a dip in todays NFL.
    I guess you had the Packers and Niners, years ago but today? Wow.

    Had BB had his way...that dude in San Fran...yeah, HE'S STILL EXTENDING THE DYNASTY for who knows how long.

    THANK YOU ROBERT KRAFT for preventing us from enduring another decade of horror!!!

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Lemming View Post
    Think of this HORRIBLE THOUGHT:

    Bill Belechick almost did the unthinkable.
    He almost transitioned from one top QB to the next WITHOUT a dip in todays NFL.
    I guess you had the Packers and Niners, years ago but today? Wow.

    Had BB had his way...that dude in San Fran...yeah, HE'S STILL EXTENDING THE DYNASTY for who knows how long.

    THANK YOU ROBERT KRAFT for preventing us from enduring another decade of horror!!!
    Fully agree with this.

    Kraft fell prey to human emotion. A problem BB doesn't usually seem to have (although maybe he did after Vrabel trolled him last weekend)
    Talent vs coaching: [url]www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/48851-Poll-Question-for-Everyone/page14[/url]

    Steelers vs. Other Teams with good QBs: ... /47985-Steelers-most-successful-failure/page5

    Tomlin playoff record vs. expectations (Cowher pg24): ... /48742-Rooney-Brown-meeting/page22

    Tomlin's Las year: ... 49599-Just-sayin?p=778284#post778284

    Maniac Talent>Coaching: ...49632-Trades?p=779158#post779158

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Lemming View Post
    Think of this HORRIBLE THOUGHT:

    Bill Belechick almost did the unthinkable.
    He almost transitioned from one top QB to the next WITHOUT a dip in todays NFL.
    I guess you had the Packers and Niners, years ago but today? Wow.

    Had BB had his way...that dude in San Fran...yeah, HE'S STILL EXTENDING THE DYNASTY for who knows how long.

    THANK YOU ROBERT KRAFT for preventing us from enduring another decade of horror!!!
    Although, I would have been interested to see how BB handled a good QB making market value. Maybe that would have given us some info on whether he's a better GM or a better coach.

    But maybe he could have mind-tricked Jimmy G too.
    Talent vs coaching: [url]www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/48851-Poll-Question-for-Everyone/page14[/url]

    Steelers vs. Other Teams with good QBs: ... /47985-Steelers-most-successful-failure/page5

    Tomlin playoff record vs. expectations (Cowher pg24): ... /48742-Rooney-Brown-meeting/page22

    Tomlin's Las year: ... 49599-Just-sayin?p=778284#post778284

    Maniac Talent>Coaching: ...49632-Trades?p=779158#post779158

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    I think you're wrong because their is a salary cap (but I would agree if there was no cap)

    I think the point is that teams that sign players for below market value have a better chance of winning than those that don't.

    And that QB is the most important position cap wise, so overpaying at QB is very bad for teams.
    You know better than to have to remind me about the cap. I talk about it all the time.
    It is why I rail agaist paying elite money to skill players. They are NEVER worth the cap hit.

    OF COURSE you "want" to pay less for a QB. If you can strike a deal with a QB with a wife that makes many times more than him sure, you do it.
    There IS an advantage if you can do that.

    But that usually is not an option.

    Do teams make mistake in "who" they pay at QB? Absolutely.
    Bad QBs, over the hill QBs....dont do it.

    Is paying top dollar to a top "performing" QB a bad use of funds? NEVER!!!!
    You ALWAYS pay the man.

    Does that negate the cap advantage of a QB on a rookie deal? No, it exists.

    Last season, would I take Mahomes and his deal over paying Wilson? Absolutely!!!

    But the real option is Wilson versus the bum behind him.

    I again ask:
    Was it wise to make Wilson (a top tier QB in his prime) the highest paid player in NFL history?
    People here told me no, last year.

    THAT is my point.
    Last edited by Captain Lemming; 01-07-2020 at 12:38 PM.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    Although, I would have been interested to see how BB handled a good QB making market value. Maybe that would have given us some info on whether he's a better GM or a better coach.

    But maybe he could have mind-tricked Jimmy G too.
    I think it helps...but BB ALSO spends wisely.
    I have been saying it FOR YEARS, dude does not overpay "skill players" and that has always been a HUGE advantage.
    Also the heartlessness you mention...no loyalty whatsoever...shows in not overpaying beloved veterans.

    Players are just disposable chess pieces. Huge advantage

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Lemming View Post
    The flaw here is not overpaying QBs. It is QBs that dont perform.
    Flacco is done. Ben and Cam aint even playing. Carr and Foles? Yeah they ARE overpaid...because they are not that good.

    The top "performing" QBs are almost ALL playing in the post season regardless salary.
    This is precisely why you pay the greats ones, (while they are great).

    Whether our investment in Ben pans out is dependent on his play.

    The concern is not whether that is too much for a QB, the issue is whether that is too much for a fat old QB for whom staying in shape has never been a priorty.

    If Ben is at his best...the money is worth it.
    The likelihood though is he wont be...he will be more "Flacco" than "Brees".


    The real pattern has zero to do with pay. The issue is "play".
    'overpaying ' - pay that doesn't match performance.
    Your assessment only works in an uncapped world.
    The savvy teams are finding ways to maneuver at the non-elite QB level.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buzz View Post
    Good article that explains the why of the salary cap mess the Steelers are in this year:

    By F. S. "Flip" Fisher@Flipsteeler Jan 7, 2020, 8:47am EST

    The Pittsburgh Steelers 2020 offseason started when they did not make the playoffs. As we all know, there is no true offseason in the NFL. One aspect that has become a hot topic here at BTSC is players the team should keep, ditch, and bring in via free agency. Before readers can fill out their wish list or take out their frustration and demand a player be jettisoned from the team, people need to be informed about the ramifications such a move would incur. Because of two quirks in the last year of the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, the team cannot operate with the mentality of business as usual. (There are other quirks but they will not affect the Steelers.)

    What are the two quirks in the NFL’s CBA that will affect the Steelers 2020 cap situation?

    The first, the 30 percent rule. What is it? A stipulation in the CBA states that a team cannot pay a player over 30 percent, on a restructured or new contract signed in 2020, from 2020 to 2021, 2021 to 2022, and 2022 to 2023. This also includes restructured deals.

    To put this into real-world scenario, let’s look at Bud Dupree. If the Steelers wanted to give him a five year contract and his 2020 cap hit was $10 million, his 2021 salary could be no greater than $13 million. His cap hit for 2022 could not be greater than $16 million while his 2023 cap hit could not be greater than $19 million. In essence, no backloading the contact to give the team cap relief in 2020, which is desperately needed.

    Joe Haden’s contract is a prime example. He could not have signed his deal in 2020 because his second year cap hit of $12.6 million is over 30 percent greater than his first year of $8,716,668.

    The Steelers have for years structured contracts in a fashion that restructuring the deal down the road can happen. Because of the 30 percent rule, the team cannot save drastic amounts of cap space with a restructure. In a normal season, Stefon Tuitt would be a prime candidate for a restructure. His P5 (Base salary) is $9 million. The Steelers would normally give him $8 million of his P5 salary in the form of a signing bonus reducing his cap hit to $9.61 million. But such a move would cause his 2021 salary to be much greater than 30 percent of his 2020 cap number.

    The second quirk, the team cannot declare a player as a Post June 1 cut. What does that mean you ask? If a player has over one season left on his contract, his organization can opt to declare him as such and spread the dead money from the guaranteed money left on his contract over two seasons.

    To put this into perspective let’s look at Ben Roethlisberger’s contact. Big Ben has two years left on his deal and has already been paid out his signing bonus. If the team feels that he cannot continue his playing career, they would cut him before his $12.5 million roster bonus due on March 22. Each of the next two seasons have $12.5 million in prorated signing bonus money. In a normal season, the team could opt to eat $12.5 million in dead money each season. Not 2020 though. The Steelers would have to eat the full $25 million in 2020.

    Why is the above so important to understand for 2020? Just glancing at Over the Cap and Steeler Nation will notice that the team is sitting on just under $4.9 million in cap space. This includes 2020 dead cap space, 2019 carryover money, and an increase of $12 million over 2019 season.

    That figure is for the 46 players under contract. (The Steelers have more that the team signed from the practice squad but OTC does not have them listed.) This is not even enough money to sign the team’s 2020 draft class which is projected to cost close to $5.1 million.

    What other costs are not included in OTC’s figures? That is what I will tackle in the second part of this series, so be on the lookout for upcoming articles where I bloat the cap and then get the team in compliance with NFL rules.


    https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...ss-in-2020-nfl
    This is a really good article.

    I've heard them mention the 30% rule a couple of times on the Terrible Podcast, but I didn't know what it meant.

    I think the June 1st thing means that the Steelers would be screwed if Ben retired. So, I think he'll be on the roster even if his elbow is replaced by a 2x4.
    Talent vs coaching: [url]www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/48851-Poll-Question-for-Everyone/page14[/url]

    Steelers vs. Other Teams with good QBs: ... /47985-Steelers-most-successful-failure/page5

    Tomlin playoff record vs. expectations (Cowher pg24): ... /48742-Rooney-Brown-meeting/page22

    Tomlin's Las year: ... 49599-Just-sayin?p=778284#post778284

    Maniac Talent>Coaching: ...49632-Trades?p=779158#post779158

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