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Thread: ”From the 2010-2018 season Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games.

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatever View Post
    What makes you think keeping Tomlin will result in one?
    Because they made the playoffs 8 out of 12 years. Played in 3 AFCCG. Played in 2 Super bowls. Won one Super bowl. There is some history that suggests they can make it back to the Super bowl and win it with Tomlin as HC.
    Last edited by BURGH86STEEL; 10-17-2019 at 05:52 AM.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by whatever View Post
    What makes you think keeping Tomlin will result in one?
    I'm not saying it will result in one, but he seems to think replacing Tomlin is the answer to winning another Superbowl, its just not that simple. He brought up the Superbowl not me, i'm just pointing out the obvious flaw in that line of thinking.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by BURGH86STEEL View Post
    Because they made the playoffs 8 out of 12 years. Played in 3 AFCCG. Played in 2 Super bowls. Won one Super bowl. There is some history that suggests they can make it back to the Super bowl and win it with Tomlin as HC.
    That about sums it up.

  4. #24
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    Well, since Tomlin's record against winning teams is 50/50, there's a 50/50 chance the Steelers win a Super Bowl with Tomlin as the coach because you play teams with winning records in the playoffs.

    On another note: I wonder how they determine whether a team has a winning record or not? Do they assess the team at the time of the game or do they wait until the entire schedule has been played and then go back and determine whether a team had a winning season or not. Assessing at the time of the game could very well lead to skewed numbers, a team could be 2-0 and the Steelers beat them but their final record is 6-10, so did the Steelers beat a winning team at 2-0 or a losing team at 6-10 and vice versa?

    Pappy


    The referee said that you hit Brian Sipe too hard. Did you hit him too hard?
    I hit him as hard as I could - Jack Lambert

    1.20 - Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan
    3.66 - Diontae Johnson, WR, Toledo
    3.83 - Justin Layne, CB, MSU
    4.122 - Benny Snell, RB, Kentucky
    5.141 - Zach Gentry, TE, Michigan
    6.175 - Sutton Smith, OLB, Northern Illinois
    6.192 - Isaiah Buggs, DE, Alabama
    6.207 - Ulysees Gilbert III, OLB, Akron
    7.219 - Derwin Gray, OL, Maryland

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by papillon View Post
    Well, since Tomlin's record against winning teams is 50/50, there's a 50/50 chance the Steelers win a Super Bowl with Tomlin as the coach because you play teams with winning records in the playoffs.

    On another note: I wonder how they determine whether a team has a winning record or not? Do they assess the team at the time of the game or do they wait until the entire schedule has been played and then go back and determine whether a team had a winning season or not. Assessing at the time of the game could very well lead to skewed numbers, a team could be 2-0 and the Steelers beat them but their final record is 6-10, so did the Steelers beat a winning team at 2-0 or a losing team at 6-10 and vice versa?

    Pappy
    I think it's worse than 50 / 50 and it shows why single game elimination tournaments are hard.

    Let's say that all good coaches win 50% of the time against winning teams. This means that these "good coaches" are better than the rest of the league because they win half the time against teams that have won more than half the time.

    Let's also say that all coaches in the playoffs are good in that year, and all teams in the playoffs qualify as good teams.

    If the team in question gets a bye, they have to win the divisional round, the championship and the SB. That's 3 games. If the good coach has a 50% chance of winning each of those games, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the SB (50% x 50% x 50%). It also shows why it's probably harder to win in the AFC even if you don't play the Pats because you can pencil them in for one of those byes every time.

    If the team doesn't get a bye, they have to also win the WC round, so their chance of winning in this case drops by half to 6.26%. Here we can see how winning in the regular season matters. For the "good coaches" in this example, getting a bye doubles their chances of bringing home the trophy.

    We'd then have to weight the probabilities of (i) making the playoffs and (ii) getting byes. Since we're talking about Tomlin, we'll use his numbers.
    - Making the playoffs: 8 / 12 (67%)
    - Getting a bye: 2/12 (17%)
    - Not getting a bye: 6 / 12 (50%)

    So in a given year,this model would give Tomlin an expected SB win rate of 5.25% before any given season started (does not include this year, which will probably drop his percentage). That corresponds to an expected SB in one of every 19 seasons (which Tomlin has achieved).

    Of course, the numbers here are all too simple. It won't be 50% all the time and I only used Tomlin as a reference for playoffs and byes. But, it kind of shows how stringing together wins in the playoffs against other good teams means that winning is unlikely.

    In this model, I bet Tomlin performs better than most coaches with a significantly long track record because his rate of making the playoffs is very high. Even still, you'd only expect a SB once every 19 years (winning the SB is hard).

    That's why it's a good bet to take the field vs. any particular coach winning the SB.

    The only coach I'd even thing about taking that bet for is BB. His rate of making playoffs and getting byes must be very high. And his rate of beating good teams is probably also higher than anyone (below market QB means more talent elsewhere). And even then, both he and Brady are probably fairly close to retirement.
    Talent vs coaching: [url]www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/48851-Poll-Question-for-Everyone/page14[/url]

    Steelers vs. Other Teams with good QBs: ... /47985-Steelers-most-successful-failure/page5

    Tomlin playoff record vs. expectations (Cowher pg24): ... /48742-Rooney-Brown-meeting/page22

    Tomlin's Las year: ... 49599-Just-sayin?p=778284#post778284

    Maniac Talent>Coaching: ...49632-Trades?p=779158#post779158

  6. #26
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    There's no question in my mind that we CAN win another ring with Tomlin. At the same time, I don't think he - specifically - will do anything special to put us over the edge. With the right combination of players, getting healthy at the right time and a little luck, there's no reason we can't win it all under Tomlin.

    I see so many people on social media longing for Cowher to come back. How quickly they forget that it took him 15 years to finally win a single ring.

    There's really only one head coach in the league that seems to be doing something special that helps put his team over the edge (and I'm not convinced that some of it doesn't still also include cheating). But the way he seems to be able to make wholesale changes in game plans - within a week - to suit the opponent and keep the other team guessing, seems on another level compared to everyone else.

    I'd be more excited about bringing in a brilliant, offensive-minded, coordinator than replacing Tomlin as head coach.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eich View Post
    There's no question in my mind that we CAN win another ring with Tomlin. At the same time, I don't think he - specifically - will do anything special to put us over the edge. With the right combination of players, getting healthy at the right time and a little luck, there's no reason we can't win it all under Tomlin.

    I see so many people on social media longing for Cowher to come back. How quickly they forget that it took him 15 years to finally win a single ring.

    There's really only one head coach in the league that seems to be doing something special that helps put his team over the edge (and I'm not convinced that some of it doesn't still also include cheating). But the way he seems to be able to make wholesale changes in game plans - within a week - to suit the opponent and keep the other team guessing, seems on another level compared to everyone else.

    I'd be more excited about bringing in a brilliant, offensive-minded, coordinator than replacing Tomlin as head coach.
    This is pretty much how I feel too.

    I didn't like the process we used to hiring either of our last 2 coordinators. Particularly the OC, who it seems like we hired because he's friends with Ben.

    Although, I think this year Butler is providing a good example on how talent is more important than coaching.
    Talent vs coaching: [url]www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/48851-Poll-Question-for-Everyone/page14[/url]

    Steelers vs. Other Teams with good QBs: ... /47985-Steelers-most-successful-failure/page5

    Tomlin playoff record vs. expectations (Cowher pg24): ... /48742-Rooney-Brown-meeting/page22

    Tomlin's Las year: ... 49599-Just-sayin?p=778284#post778284

    Maniac Talent>Coaching: ...49632-Trades?p=779158#post779158

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    I think it's worse than 50 / 50 and it shows why single game elimination tournaments are hard.

    Let's say that all good coaches win 50% of the time against winning teams. This means that these "good coaches" are better than the rest of the league because they win half the time against teams that have won more than half the time.

    Let's also say that all coaches in the playoffs are good in that year, and all teams in the playoffs qualify as good teams.

    If the team in question gets a bye, they have to win the divisional round, the championship and the SB. That's 3 games. If the good coach has a 50% chance of winning each of those games, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the SB (50% x 50% x 50%). It also shows why it's probably harder to win in the AFC even if you don't play the Pats because you can pencil them in for one of those byes every time.

    If the team doesn't get a bye, they have to also win the WC round, so their chance of winning in this case drops by half to 6.26%. Here we can see how winning in the regular season matters. For the "good coaches" in this example, getting a bye doubles their chances of bringing home the trophy.

    We'd then have to weight the probabilities of (i) making the playoffs and (ii) getting byes. Since we're talking about Tomlin, we'll use his numbers.
    - Making the playoffs: 8 / 12 (67%)
    - Getting a bye: 2/12 (17%)
    - Not getting a bye: 6 / 12 (50%)

    So in a given year,this model would give Tomlin an expected SB win rate of 5.25% before any given season started (does not include this year, which will probably drop his percentage). That corresponds to an expected SB in one of every 19 seasons (which Tomlin has achieved).

    Of course, the numbers here are all too simple. It won't be 50% all the time and I only used Tomlin as a reference for playoffs and byes. But, it kind of shows how stringing together wins in the playoffs against other good teams means that winning is unlikely.

    In this model, I bet Tomlin performs better than most coaches with a significantly long track record because his rate of making the playoffs is very high. Even still, you'd only expect a SB once every 19 years (winning the SB is hard).

    That's why it's a good bet to take the field vs. any particular coach winning the SB.

    The only coach I'd even thing about taking that bet for is BB. His rate of making playoffs and getting byes must be very high. And his rate of beating good teams is probably also higher than anyone (below market QB means more talent elsewhere). And even then, both he and Brady are probably fairly close to retirement.
    Nice work Northern. Can't really poke any holes in the logic and it should open a few eyes about how hard it is to make it to the big dance.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    I think it's worse than 50 / 50 and it shows why single game elimination tournaments are hard.

    Let's say that all good coaches win 50% of the time against winning teams. This means that these "good coaches" are better than the rest of the league because they win half the time against teams that have won more than half the time.

    Let's also say that all coaches in the playoffs are good in that year, and all teams in the playoffs qualify as good teams.

    If the team in question gets a bye, they have to win the divisional round, the championship and the SB. That's 3 games. If the good coach has a 50% chance of winning each of those games, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the SB (50% x 50% x 50%). It also shows why it's probably harder to win in the AFC even if you don't play the Pats because you can pencil them in for one of those byes every time.

    If the team doesn't get a bye, they have to also win the WC round, so their chance of winning in this case drops by half to 6.26%. Here we can see how winning in the regular season matters. For the "good coaches" in this example, getting a bye doubles their chances of bringing home the trophy.

    We'd then have to weight the probabilities of (i) making the playoffs and (ii) getting byes. Since we're talking about Tomlin, we'll use his numbers.
    - Making the playoffs: 8 / 12 (67%)
    - Getting a bye: 2/12 (17%)
    - Not getting a bye: 6 / 12 (50%)

    So in a given year,this model would give Tomlin an expected SB win rate of 5.25% before any given season started (does not include this year, which will probably drop his percentage). That corresponds to an expected SB in one of every 19 seasons (which Tomlin has achieved).

    Of course, the numbers here are all too simple. It won't be 50% all the time and I only used Tomlin as a reference for playoffs and byes. But, it kind of shows how stringing together wins in the playoffs against other good teams means that winning is unlikely.

    In this model, I bet Tomlin performs better than most coaches with a significantly long track record because his rate of making the playoffs is very high. Even still, you'd only expect a SB once every 19 years (winning the SB is hard).

    That's why it's a good bet to take the field vs. any particular coach winning the SB.

    The only coach I'd even thing about taking that bet for is BB. His rate of making playoffs and getting byes must be very high. And his rate of beating good teams is probably also higher than anyone (below market QB means more talent elsewhere). And even then, both he and Brady are probably fairly close to retirement.
    Well, here's what I'll say about Mike Tomlin's chances of beating a team with a winning record. Based on the article there were only 4 or 5 coaches with a better than .500 winning percentage against teams with winning records and Mike Tomlin was second. Since each game is an independent event the chances of a Mike Tomlin team winning a game against a team with a winning record is 50/50 (actually, 52/4.

    Now as you explained above, a Mike Tomlin coached team does not have a 50/50 chance to win the Super Bowl, that's a different set of probabilities. But, a Mike Tomlin coached team playing one game against a team with a winning percentage has 50/50 chance of winning the game.

    Therefore, should Mike Tomlin defy the odds (as you explained above) and get his team to the Super Bowl, in that one game, he has a 50/50 chance to win it and since he can't play the Patriots in the Super Bowl, Tomlin would have the best chance of any coach to win the game, strictly based on the winning percentages in the article.

    Pappy
    Last edited by papillon; 10-17-2019 at 11:48 PM.


    The referee said that you hit Brian Sipe too hard. Did you hit him too hard?
    I hit him as hard as I could - Jack Lambert

    1.20 - Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan
    3.66 - Diontae Johnson, WR, Toledo
    3.83 - Justin Layne, CB, MSU
    4.122 - Benny Snell, RB, Kentucky
    5.141 - Zach Gentry, TE, Michigan
    6.175 - Sutton Smith, OLB, Northern Illinois
    6.192 - Isaiah Buggs, DE, Alabama
    6.207 - Ulysees Gilbert III, OLB, Akron
    7.219 - Derwin Gray, OL, Maryland

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by papillon View Post
    Well, here's what I'll say about Mike Tomlin's chances of beating a team with a winning record. Based on the article there were only 4 or 5 coaches with a better than .500 winning percentage against teams with winning records and Mike Tomlin was second. Since each game is an independent event the chances of a Mike Tomlin team winning a game against a team with a winning record is 50/50 (actually, 52/4.

    Now as you explained above, a Mike Tomlin coached team does not have a 50/50 chance to win the Super Bowl, that's a different set of probabilities. But, a Mike Tomlin coached team playing one game against a team with a winning percentage has 50/50 chance of winning the game.

    Therefore, should Mike Tomlin defy the odds (as you explained above) and get his team to the Super Bowl, in that one game, he has a 50/50 chance to win it and since he can't play the Patriots in the Super Bowl, Tomlin would have the best chance of any coach to win the game, strictly based on the winning percentages in the article.

    Pappy
    Agreed.

    I was trying to show that while it's a good bet that he won't win another SB, he will likely provide a better probability than most other coaches.

    Your data also hints at another thing we have talked about here.

    Several people often bring up the idea that Tomlin teams lose more than they should against bad teams (I don't think anyone has shown data that this is true).

    Knowing that he has a very high win percentage, that would mean that his teams play very well against good teams. This part is shown by your data.

    My guess is that his teams outperform in both cases.

    But either way, we should probably want a team that beats good teams because those are the ones in the playoffs.
    Talent vs coaching: [url]www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/48851-Poll-Question-for-Everyone/page14[/url]

    Steelers vs. Other Teams with good QBs: ... /47985-Steelers-most-successful-failure/page5

    Tomlin playoff record vs. expectations (Cowher pg24): ... /48742-Rooney-Brown-meeting/page22

    Tomlin's Las year: ... 49599-Just-sayin?p=778284#post778284

    Maniac Talent>Coaching: ...49632-Trades?p=779158#post779158

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