Quote Originally Posted by whatever View Post
Why can't Hodges just move them for the field goal and then have the defense make a stop?
Why is every defense of Tomlin use, 'the odds of the Steelers driving 85 yards for the win'?
Because that's the actual decision he had to make.

What option gives a better win probability?

I think the option he chose probably did give the better chance to win in this specific case, even though it goes against an appeal to tradition.