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Thread: Fire Mike Tomlin

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terrapin View Post
    Because
    a. Hall of Fame QBs are more important to a franchise than a head coach. That's just a fact.
    b. While a QB is most important, the QB can't do a single thing about defense or special teams, both of which have been bad for years
    c. We realize you're Tomlin's most loyal fan (possibly a relative), but is your fear that huge that nobody, not a single man on Earth, can possibly do a better job?
    I agree with (A).

    Re: (B)

    I think that there are lots of things a QB can do to help the D. Convert on 3rd down so the D isn't on the field as much and has better field position. Don't turn the ball over so the D isn't under pressure from the O giving up points, isn't on the field as much, and has better field position. Score early and often so the D doesn't have to worry about two dimensional offenses. Like Tomlin, Ben has been very good at these things if you look at them over the course of his career (despite his lack of recent success in the playoffs). I think they're both very good and worth keeping.

    I agree that QBs can't impact ST too much...although converting 3rd downs probably means more FG attempts and fewer punts. But FG kicker misses (like last year) aren't something QBs can do anything about. HCs don't have a lot of power there either, except releasing the player. I wonder if holding onto the kicker last year was based more on performance (HC's domain) or the cap hit from cutting a guy right after signing a big (for a kicker) extension (more GM). Either way, Tomlin probably could have forced him out if he really wanted to and maybe we make the playoffs if we cut him early last year instead of giving him more rope.

    Re: C
    I have said many times that I don't really care if they fire Tomlin. My issue is that I don't think the arguments for firing him make sense (it's like Tomlin derangement syndrome).

    I think these arguments generally fall into one (or more) of the following categories: (i) setting unrealistic expectations based on the best dynasty in history, (ii) reading too much into results that are driven by luck (playoffs), (iii) the Steelers should win more SBs than everyone else because our guys often pass lots of trophies that were mostly won by guys who've been eligible to collect social security checks for a decade, (iv) I don't like the things he says in press conferences, or (v) "we only hired Tomlin because of the Rooney Rule" (as if history hasn't shown that Tomlin is a much better coach than Grimm or Whisenhunt). I don't think any of those arguments out weighs the fact that he's put up a hell of a winning percentage in the cap era (when being consistently competitive is harder than it was in the 70s).

    I tend to think that we should keep Tomlin at least until Ben / Colbert retires because I think the disruption of replacing a HC (and maybe OC / DC) is too much for a team that has shown in the recent past that they don't seem to be very good at learning new things in a short amount of time (at least on D).

    While I think players are more important than coaches (especially QB play relative to cap hit), coaches do matter in the NFL. So, I think the long odds of getting someone as good or better than Tomlin* (especially in season when you only have bad options) reduces our chances of winning again while Ben's here.

    I also think we probably keep Tomlin into the next GM so that he can be fired by the new GM when / if the post-Ben rebuild doesn't do well in the short term. Assuming that Tomlin doesn't want to retire as well.

    * Let's say that picking a new HC is like playing Roulette. Based on success data for HCs, getting a better HC than Tomlin is like hitting 00. Except it's probably less likely because that implies that 1 / 38 HCs would do a better job than Tomlin and the data say it's longer odds than that. Even if it was 1 / 38, why would we gamble away Ben's last few years doing something that's very likely to make the team worse? Making bets on bad expected outcomes is a good way to tank your team.

    My position isn't unique to Tomlin. I made similar arguments on the Trib when everyone wanted to fire Cowher after his teams failed in the playoffs after consistently having high seeds. Just like I evaluate Ben and Tomlin using the same criteria. I think the best way to win the SB is to be consistently competitive. It eventually worked for BC. Our current coach (like Cowher) has shown that he can put together consistently competitive teams in the cap era. Most HCs can't do that (or at least haven't when given the chance).

    TLDR: Doing something you expect to make your team worse is stupid IMO.

  2. #92
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    Worth reading?
    https://www.patriots.com/news/nfl-de...from-2010-2018

    2. Pittsburgh: 94-49-1 Regular-season record (.656)

    Decade Summary: Despite a dysfunction-filled non-playoff season of 9-6-1 in 2018 and a drop of eight points in decade winning percentage, the Steelers continue to hold down the No. 2 spot in the league behind the Patriots. Pittsburgh has six playoff berths and four division titles this decade, with one Super Bowl berth and nary a losing season. But it still feels like underachievement, doesn’t it? Like Belichick in New England, Mike Tomlin is the only coach the Steelers have had this decade.

    Does anyone know of a place we can find number of playoff games / wins by all NFL teams over a specific time frame?

    They say in this article that GB and SEA have 7 playoff births and are tied for 2nd. We have 6th, so we're at least tied for 4th in this cherry picked time frame (despite a few bad years where we rebuilt the entire D and most of the O...went fishing for RBs multiple years). But playoff births is probably highly correlated to regular season win percentage (since you have to be good in the regular season to get to the playoffs.

    It would be interesting to count playoff games / wins. I know I showed us vs other teams with franchise QBs. I think we were behind NE and SEA and
    I think we were similar to GB, NO, and NYG (but that's only from memory). It would be interesting to see how our number of playoff games, wins, and byes compares to the entire league to get a sense of reasonable expectations.

    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 09-10-2019 at 04:57 PM.

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terrapin View Post
    Because
    a. Hall of Fame QBs are more important to a franchise than a head coach. That's just a fact.
    b. While a QB is most important, the QB can't do a single thing about defense or special teams, both of which have been bad for years
    c. We realize you're Tomlin's most loyal fan (possibly a relative), but is your fear that huge that nobody, not a single man on Earth, can possibly do a better job?
    If you consider BB as the penultimate HC, the fact that Tomlin is just behind him in win percentage should tell you pretty quickly that he is a deviation from norm on the positive side. Finding another positive deviation ain't that easy.
    What has Payton done with Brees for the last 15 yrs?

    Fact is, it is damn hard to win a SB even with a QB that is HOF bound.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    If you consider BB as the penultimate HC, the fact that Tomlin is just behind him in win percentage should tell you pretty quickly that he is a deviation from norm on the positive side. Finding another positive deviation ain't that easy.
    What has Payton done with Brees for the last 15 yrs?

    Fact is, it is damn hard to win a SB even with a QB that is HOF bound.
    Let's just sign Tomlin to a life contract then. He's obviously the best we can ever do, so lock him up until he dies.

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terrapin View Post
    Let's just sign Tomlin to a life contract then. He's obviously the best we can ever do, so lock him up until he dies.
    Kinda what it sounds like, doesn't it?

  6. #96
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    Ben is responsible for tomlins winning %

    he got a dream job with a franchise QB and did ok with it

    nothing spectacular at all

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Spaghetti View Post
    Ben is responsible for tomlins winning %

    he got a dream job with a franchise QB and did ok with it

    nothing spectacular at all
    So wins are because of Ben and losses are on Tomlin?

    How can you not see how the argument doesn't make sense?

  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Terrapin View Post
    Let's just sign Tomlin to a life contract then. He's obviously the best we can ever do, so lock him up until he dies.
    My post specifically says when I think we fire him (if he does not retire first).

    The benifit of your straw man is that it's easier to argue against, right?

  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    So wins are because of Ben and losses are on Tomlin?

    How can you not see how the argument doesn't make sense?
    NB, because it fits the agenda...

  10. #100
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    This, from the opponent's view. Saddened that Fichtner could not manage anything so creative on offense:

    First Quarter
    -The Patriots offense came out testing their power run game, with 5 of their first 6 plays coming with two running backs. The early use of Brandon Bolden, who got a carry on a jet sweep for seven yards, was surprising as he wouldn’t touch the ball again. Bolden is also the team’s primary kickoff returner, he did not return a kick in the first 7 years of career until he returned 2 in this game. That's an area where they might want to improve, but with so many receivers on the roster it might have to wait.

    -The defense opened in a 2-4-5 nickel package, with Michael Bennett and Lawrence Guy as the only two hand-down players. Playing as a 3-technique, Bennett’s burst off the line was immediately apparent, he gets off the snap into the offensive linemen across from him in a hurry. It’s interesting the Steelers didn’t try to run more on this lighter front, but Bennett and Guy were really effective.

    -On their second drive the offense shifted to more 11 personnel and started to find their stride. Most impressive on the re-watch? Isaiah Wynn is an athletic technician and it will be fun watching him this season. If this is how he looks in his first start coming off a major injury we can only imagine what his ceiling will be.


    -The double pass really sparked the entire offensive night, as the Pats would score their first touchdown on the very next play. Not sure what it is about the Steelers but the Patriots seem to love those kind of double-pass/flea flicker plays against them, likely to use their aggression on defense against them.

    -The defense only had one sack on the night but their overall disruption was pretty solid. The game plan against Ben Roethlisberger seemed more about keeping him in the pocket than just getting to him. Just the overall strength of the front seven is what stood out continually. There wasn't much blitzing, usually they were content to just send four and play coverage and it worked well. I don't think we've scratched the surface of what this defense can do.

    -Jakobi Meyers made his only catch of the night as the fourth receiver in a one running back, no tight end package. He played 8 snaps on the night. Gunner Olszewski returned punts and played 50 percent of the special teams snaps, so it would still appear he has more immediate value to the team if we’re considering who gets cut for Antonio Brown.

    -Sony Michel had an unimpressive stat line (15 carries, 14 yards) and was stopped a yard short on a well-blocked play. After an explosive summer, Michel was one lackluster piece of the puzzle on this night. Expect a breakout game sooner than later, but it was surprising to see him unable to power through for some extra yards when the blockers were there. Rex Burkhead had more success with the same kind of blocking.

    q2-33-seconds-formation-rbs
    Second Quarter
    -The offense showed some new formation wrinkles in their backfield, with two backs offset to one side (see above). They did this with a fullback and a running back, two running backs, and even a receiver and a running back. It seemed to work like a bunch set, only coming out of the backfield which makes it a bit tougher for the defenders who are in coverage.

    -The second quarter was the first time the Pats had to settle for a field goal, they’d be 0-for-3 in the red zone in the game. If you’re looking for a negative stat to focus on, and many miserable fans certainly are, this is the one. Against the ineffective Steelers it didn’t matter much. But against high-scoring teams they’ll want to finish with touchdowns. They fell to 12th in red zone offense in 2018 after being top-5 in in 3 of the previous 4 seasons. It’s an area that continues to be an issue and not having an effective pass-catching tight end sure doesn’t help. Maybe Matt LaCosse can help there once he’s healthy.

    - The Steelers went to an empty formation and the Pats countered with seven defensive backs. They tackled well, forcing a third-and-1 that the immovable Danny Shelton stopped. At 10-0 it was a great counter to the Steelers adjustment and an example of how great this defense is when everyone has their role and plays it well.

    - James White’s quickness was on display when he left Mark Barron in his dust on a third-down whip route. This is just why the Steelers got Barron and he had no chance against White, who is as polished a running back route runner as there is in the NFL.

    - Hard to misplay a two-man route combo worse than the Steelers did on Phillip Dorsett’s first touchdown. Both he and Edelman got open off the break and it wasn’t even close.

    - The Steelers fourth-down attempt was broken up by Patrick Chung who arrived just after the ball and disrupted things enough to force an incompletion. It was a nice reminder of how much Chung means to the defense and it was great seeing him right back in his usual role after a summer spent getting healthy.


    Next Gen Stats

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    In their first game since @RobGronkowski's retirement, the @Patriots used 20 personnel (2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR) on 23 plays tonight.

    That's the MOST by any team in a game since 2016.

    The Patriots used 20 personnel on just 8 plays total last season.#PITvsNE | #GoPats

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    Third Quarter
    - John Simon played 45 percent of the snaps and was a force on the edge. He dropped a sure interception that looked remarkably like the one he held onto in the preseason as he faked a rush then dropped into coverage. Simon is yet another free agent find who continues to get more and more work. He’s got that Vrabel-Ninkovich feel to him.

    - The one big play the defense gave up came on James Washington’s 45-yard reception up the sideline. Jason McCourty appeared to slow down and then safety Duron Harmon couldn’t get over in time. There were some plays to be had down the field for the Steelers but this was the only time they took advantage.

    - With starting safety Sean Davis out you had to know the Pats would get the Steelers at least once on a deep pass and Phillip Dorsett’s 58-yard touchdown was the perfect example as he blew by both safeties for an easy score. Those are the kind of big plays Brady always seems to hang on Pittsburgh.

    - Rex Burkhead had himself a nice game with 85 all-purpose yards. He gives the offense so much balance when he’s on the field as he’s a threat to run or catch with equal effectiveness. If Burkhead has a full 16-game season in him he could really make a big impact, even though he’s often an afterthought to White and Michel.

    - Stephon Gilmore manned up JuJu Smith-Schuster for most of the game and didn’t completely shut him down, as JuJu snagged 6 catches for 78 yards. Maybe that’s not as good as some might expect Gilmore to be, but he was a sure tackler immediately after every catch. That’s a really big key. Overall, the tackling was excellent on defense, especially for an opening game. That and strong fundamental play were big reasons the Pats rolled.


    Fourth Quarter
    - Jonathan Jones had two passes defensed and showed why the Patriots extended him last week. He’s a quick and tough slot corner and he seems to keep getting better.

    - Shilique Calhoun played 81percent of the defensive snaps and 58 percent of the special teams snaps, both remarkable numbers given he didn’t play after getting hurt in the second preseason game. Is he a find? Or did he just get that much run because Kyle Van Noy is out? The Patriots will often give a random player extended playing time to truly get a sense of what kind of player they are. To play that much and only record one tackle and one QB hit seems a little suspect. He might be back on special teams when Van Noy returns.

    - Julian Edelman started to pick up steam in the fourth quarter, looking like the same dynamic uncoverable receiver we last saw in the Super Bowl. Even if there were some miscues for him in this game, the 33-year-old doesn’t look like he’s lost any steps.

    - Jermaine Eluemanor’s work at left guard left a lot to be desired, as he was consistently beaten and looked slow and lacked pop. Marcus Cannon’s injury is a major concern and after what we saw from Eluemanor I’d like to see Korey Cunningham get a look at right tackle.

    - There were two primary defensive packages played in this one – a 2-4-5 nickel package (23 snaps) and a 1-3-7 quarters package (20 snaps). It shows the strength of this defense is on the second and third level, but the front line of defensive tackles was also effective. You’d expect teams to try to run on these personnel groups, but the Steelers were unable to. A lot of that had to do with how the Steelers fell behind early. Yet again there was plenty of 3-4 defense talk this summer and none of it really mattered once there was an actual game plan. In all, there was just one goal-line snap that featured four defensive backs, a 4-3 front. Otherwise there were five or more defensive backs on the field for every other snap
    https://www.patriots.com/news/after-...steelers-x9533

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