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Thread: Steelers Season Hinges on this Guy

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

    In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

    Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

    To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

    To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

    To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

    These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.

    ^ This ^ all day.

    Just consider one game: The horrible loss to the Raiders. Boswell missed a 39 yarder and a 40 yarder. His previous accuracy from that distance was in the high 80 / low 90 percent range. He was just about automatic. He missed two. The team lost by 3. He makes both of those, as he normally would in previous years, they win. They finish 10-5-1 and make the playoffs.

    It's always hard to say what would happen if a certain play went another way, because plays don't happen in a vacuum. But missed FG attempts are about as close as it gets. If he misses the kick, the opponent gets the ball back in their own territory, around 35 or so yard line depending on how long the attempt was. If he makes the kick, add three points and kick it off, but with the weak KO coverage this team has shown over the past few years, I'm not so certain that the field position would be substantially different -- maybe 5 or 10 yards at most. The only real differences are the lack of 3 points and the added demoralizing effect that would have on the defense.

    I think as much as anyone he needs to get 2018 out of his head.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

    In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

    Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

    To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

    To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

    To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

    These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.
    In the last 10 yrs, the Steelers have played in an average of 4.5 games a season in games decided by 3 pts or less. The last two season they have been in more close games than the 10 yr average. Here is their W-L record:

    2009 3 - 5 (wow!, half the games decided by a FG)
    2010 3 - 1
    2011 1 - 1
    2012 3 - 5 (another tight season)
    2013 1 - 2
    2014 2 - 2
    2015 1 - 2
    2016 1 - 0
    2017 5 - 1
    2018 2 - 3 - 1

    Their avg W-L record in 3 pt games is 2.2 - 2.2 in the last 10 yrs, so the Steelers on average split close games. If their record centers around the norm, then 2017 was an aberration, and 2018 is close to their average outcome.

    (Note I didn't look at games that had multiple missed FGs, which is another layer of analysis)

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    In the last 10 yrs, the Steelers have played in an average of 4.5 games a season in games decided by 3 pts or less. The last two season they have been in more close games than the 10 yr average. Here is their W-L record:

    2009 3 - 5 (wow!, half the games decided by a FG)
    2010 3 - 1
    2011 1 - 1
    2012 3 - 5 (another tight season)
    2013 1 - 2
    2014 2 - 2
    2015 1 - 2
    2016 1 - 0
    2017 5 - 1
    2018 2 - 3 - 1

    Their avg W-L record in 3 pt games is 2.2 - 2.2 in the last 10 yrs, so the Steelers on average split close games. If their record centers around the norm, then 2017 was an aberration, and 2018 is close to their average outcome.

    (Note I didn't look at games that had multiple missed FGs, which is another layer of analysis)
    It seems reasonable that having an elite RB and a kicker that isn't the 2nd worst in the league helps win close games.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    The season also hinges on the foot of Chris Boswell as well.

    In his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, he averaged essentially 3 missed FG's per season and 1 missed PAT per season.

    Teams can win with that production from their kicker...a combined 85-95 FG and 99-102 PAT from 2015-2017.

    To go from that to 13-20 FG and 43-48 PAT in 2018 is mind-boggling.

    To go from missing only 10 FG out of your first 95, then missing 7 FG out of your next 20 is a huge dropoff.

    To go from missing only 3 PAT in 3 years combined to missing 5 PAT in one season is a massive shift.

    These unexplainable misses are as painful as Ben's turnovers, since they literally take points off of our scoreboard and instead gives the ball to the other team.
    Definitely. When we discussed last season and people blamed Tomlin I was kind of shocked considering how bad Boswell was last year.

    Some folks try to give Boswell a pass but the guy was terrible.

  5. #15
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    We need "4th quarter, 2 minutes left, down by 5" Ben and 2017 Boz for every game... all game... all season. We'll be unbeatable.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh wow View Post
    Definitely. When we discussed last season and people blamed Tomlin I was kind of shocked considering how bad Boswell was last year.

    Some folks try to give Boswell a pass but the guy was terrible.
    I don't think that people gave Boz a pass as much as they thought that his awful season wasn't as big a factor. I disagree with that assessment, but I think most recognize how awful he was.

  7. #17
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    I believe that there was so much going on behind the scenes that we'll never know about. That's why I'm so interested in seeing the "feel" that this team has for each other once camp starts.

    I think that the constant distractions from Mr. "Will he or won't he" Bell became an annoyance around the team, but I will be willing to bet that Brown was a 24/7 distraction within the locker room. Every minute, every play, every throw was a bone of contention. Like having a spouse that nags about every single thing so much that you can't stand to even go home anymore.

    This year (I hope) that when Ben drops back he can feel free to throw it anywhere without the worry of hearing about it on the sidelines, and all week afterwards. I have no evidence to back it up, but if what we hear are intermittent stories that seemed to pop up every few months, you can believe that issues didn't only occur every few months, they were happening more frequently and it was just every once in awhile that the story leaked out. The Ryan Clark story told me that this had been an ongoing issue for years and with where it had reached, it had to come to an end.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by steeler_fan_in_t.o. View Post
    I don't think that people gave Boz a pass as much as they thought that his awful season wasn't as big a factor. I disagree with that assessment, but I think most recognize how awful he was.
    Regarding the kicker factor, the cheaters would have 2-3 fewer rings without a solid kicker IMO.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eich View Post
    Regarding the kicker factor, the cheaters would have 2-3 fewer rings without a solid kicker IMO.
    Yep... they went from one great kicker in Venatari to Gostkowski.
    From the 2010-2018 season, (An 8 year period that the majority of Cowher's players & coaches had left) Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games. And two of those wins were against back up Quarterbacks. Our history has been defined by what we do in the postseason; not the regular season.

    FIRE MIKE TOMLIN

  10. #20
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    Boswell was a huge part in us missing the playoffs and he's due to earn $4.2M this year.
    Let's Go Matthew Wright (or someone else). Danny Smith's job should also be on the line.

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