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Thread: The Winner's Curse and Why Trading Down is the Better Choice

  1. #41
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    Teams that have All pros typically won't have the next man up on the field just to play them. It's the old argument about LeBeau not letting young guys on the field.
    When Troy was in the secondary would you really put a 1 or 2 yr player out there just because?

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    Which is an indictment on our head coach who was hired with the expertise as a secondary expert.
    Iím sorry but this line of thinking doesnít make sense to me. MT was hired to be the HEAD COACH period, not a DB coach. They already had Dick LeBeau and Ray Horton on the staff. Once youíre a head coach in the NFL, the position that you coached really doesnít matter. Itís a completely different game as a head coach.
    MT was coaching DBs 18 YEARS AGO, in a Tampa 2 defense. Can anyone name what position any other head coach was coaching 18 years ago? More importantly, does it matter or does anyone care?

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    But if you assume that your picks in rounds 1-3 are already 50-50 chances to succeed, how is trading up within those rounds going to change that likelihood of success?

    In certain specific situations, like when we have a big need and there are only 1 or 2 guys in the draft who should be capable of filling that need adequately before there is a big dropoff in talent...then yeah, a trade up to assure yourself of getting one of those rare guys before they are all gone makes sense.

    I think most years, though, it makes sense to just stay put and make your picks where they assigned.

    On day one of the draft, if you evaluate your pick correctly, it should be a guy who should contribute immediately, possibly even being a starter from day one as a rookie.

    One day two of the draft, you should get a couple of guys who might not necessarily start as rookies, but they could be primary backup types in their first year, and then possibly be starters in year 2 or 3 so that we can make an informed decision about them before we have to decide about whether to extend them beyond their rookie deals.

    On day three of the draft, we fill out depth and special teams needs with inexpensive young players. Most of these guys will never be starters in this league, and that's fine. They still have a role they play well in their few seasons in the league before they get replaced by newer younger less expensive models in future drafts. Occassionally, a late round guy surprises and you found yourself a gem who is a successful starter on offense or defense for you.

    There is room on rosters for all of these types of guys. Just because a late round pick doesn't develop into a starter does not mean that it was a failed draft pick. We typically get 3-4 years of useful inexpensive depth and ST play out of these guys, and that's just fine.
    I hear you. I guess a little more of the point is that the closer you get to the top of the draft or the top of a round, the better the pick is likely to turn out. We get better guys in round 1 vs 2 vs 3 in general as should be expected. So the higher up the higher the odds should be assuming everyone drafts BPA. If however others select based on need and you wait on BPA, then the odds may come back your way. But with limited picks, I'd suggest you'd be going for need and the odds should go up the higher you go.

    Then the backend question becomes, how good of players can you get as USFAs vs 4th-7th round picks. I bet you could argue that you get just as good of guys as UDFAs. For every AB, there's a James Harrison or a Willie Parker for every Martavis Bryant. The 4th-7th rounders aren't really that different than UDFAs imho. If you would agree that UDFAs can fit that same filler role, then we'd be close to on the same page here. Not really that far off in our thinking even though I realize what I'm saying is bizarre because it's so far from an accepted norm.

  4. #44
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    A Letter From The Editor: When the infatuation with draft picks reaches new levels

    Most of the time, fans love their team’s draft picks, but sometimes this infatuation can cloud reasonable judgement.

    By Jeff Hartman
    May 5, 2019, 11:05am EDT

    It happens every year.

    Every. Single. Year.

    After the NFL Draft comes and goes, fans look at the new players who will call Pittsburgh home and start their analysis of the picks. Sure, not every pick is beloved, but there are always those late round picks who become these folk heroes in people’s minds.

    The next James Harrison, drafted out of Kent State, cut numerous times, sent to NFL Europe only to become a Defensive Player of the Year and all-time sack leader for the Steelers.

    The next Antonio Brown, drafted out of Central Michigan, made the team as a return man and turned himself into the most prolific wide receiver the past five years unlike any the league has ever seen before.

    The next Brett Keisel, drafted out of BYU in the seventh round, and while not as prolific as the aforementioned players, certainly had a big role in the most recent Steelers Super Bowl title.

    The problem is for every Brett Keisel, there is a Joshua Frazier who doesn’t make the team. The fan base loves to love the underdog, and I get it. After all, there is a reason we here at BTSC give away the ‘Isaac Redman Award’ at the end of every training camp to the unheralded player who could shock the team and become a quality player.

    The crux of this article is for the fans to approach the upcoming offseason workouts, and training camp, with a grain of salt. If Sutton Smith is impressive in workouts, or even at Saint Vincent College for camp, it doesn’t mean he will be the next Harrison. If Ulysees Gilbert is showing off his athleticism in drills doesn’t mean he will supplant a veteran for a job other than as a special teams player.

    A perfect example of this would be the player in the image above — Tyler Matakevich.

    When Matakevich was drafted in the seventh round of the 2016 NFL Draft out of Temple, fans started to do some digging on him as a player. Matakevich received national honors including the AAC Defensive Player of the Year, and the Bronko Nagurski Trophy and the Chuck Bednarik Award. He was a tackling machine in college, and fans saw him as a future stud on the inside of the Steelers defense.

    After Ryan Shazier was injured in 2017, many wanted to see Matakevich finally get his chance to play. What did we see? An instinctual linebacker who lacked the athleticism to play the position at the highest level.

    This isn’t a cut on Matakevich, just reality.

    Matakevich is a very strong special teams player, and every team in the NFL needs guys who are nothing but depth, but play a significant role on special teams.

    And that is okay.

    For some of these draft picks, mainly players like Gilbert and Smith, if they become special teams demons and quality depth that should be viewed as a victory for the organization. After all, special teams was how Harrison got his start with the Steelers, and after Joey Porter was ejected from a game in Cleveland he was given the chance to show what he can do as a starter.

    Love these players, like you should all of the guys who don the black-and-gold, but also temper expectations. If they exceed those expectations it’s icing on the cake!

    As always,

    HERE WE GO STEELERS!

    https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/5/5/18529830/a-letter-from-the-editor-the-infatuation-with-draft-picks-reaches-new-levels-2019-nfl-draft-steelers
    Steeler teams featuring stat-driven, me-first, fantasy-football-darling diva types such as Antonio Brown & Le'Veon Bell won no championships.

    Super Bowl winning Steeler teams were built around a dynamic, in-your-face defense plus blue-collar, hard-hitting, no-nonsense football players on offense such as Hines Ward & Jerome Bettis.

    We don't want Juju & Conner to replace what we lost in Brown & Bell.

    We are counting on Juju & Conner to return us to the glory we once had with Hines & The Bus.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by STH70 View Post
    I’m sorry but this line of thinking doesn’t make sense to me. MT was hired to be the HEAD COACH period, not a DB coach. They already had Dick LeBeau and Ray Horton on the staff. Once you’re a head coach in the NFL, the position that you coached really doesn’t matter. It’s a completely different game as a head coach.
    MT was coaching DBs 18 YEARS AGO, in a Tampa 2 defense. Can anyone name what position any other head coach was coaching 18 years ago? More importantly, does it matter or does anyone care?
    Its another silly “gotcha” moment from the Tomlin detractors.

    He was a DB coach so that’s his expertise.

    Wasn’t Cowherds a ST coach? How many people bashed him for our special teams play?

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh wow View Post
    Its another silly “gotcha” moment from the Tomlin detractors.

    He was a DB coach so that’s his expertise.

    Wasn’t Cowherds a ST coach? How many people bashed him for our special teams play?
    The Steelers' special team units were good under Cowher early on when he was still working with Noll's players.

    But once most of those players left, our special teams greatly declined.
    Steeler teams featuring stat-driven, me-first, fantasy-football-darling diva types such as Antonio Brown & Le'Veon Bell won no championships.

    Super Bowl winning Steeler teams were built around a dynamic, in-your-face defense plus blue-collar, hard-hitting, no-nonsense football players on offense such as Hines Ward & Jerome Bettis.

    We don't want Juju & Conner to replace what we lost in Brown & Bell.

    We are counting on Juju & Conner to return us to the glory we once had with Hines & The Bus.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    A Letter From The Editor: When the infatuation with draft picks reaches new levels

    Most of the time, fans love their team’s draft picks, but sometimes this infatuation can cloud reasonable judgement.

    By Jeff Hartman
    May 5, 2019, 11:05am EDT

    It happens every year.

    Every. Single. Year.

    After the NFL Draft comes and goes, fans look at the new players who will call Pittsburgh home and start their analysis of the picks. Sure, not every pick is beloved, but there are always those late round picks who become these folk heroes in people’s minds.

    The next James Harrison, drafted out of Kent State, cut numerous times, sent to NFL Europe only to become a Defensive Player of the Year and all-time sack leader for the Steelers.

    The next Antonio Brown, drafted out of Central Michigan, made the team as a return man and turned himself into the most prolific wide receiver the past five years unlike any the league has ever seen before.

    The next Brett Keisel, drafted out of BYU in the seventh round, and while not as prolific as the aforementioned players, certainly had a big role in the most recent Steelers Super Bowl title.

    The problem is for every Brett Keisel, there is a Joshua Frazier who doesn’t make the team. The fan base loves to love the underdog, and I get it. After all, there is a reason we here at BTSC give away the ‘Isaac Redman Award’ at the end of every training camp to the unheralded player who could shock the team and become a quality player.

    The crux of this article is for the fans to approach the upcoming offseason workouts, and training camp, with a grain of salt. If Sutton Smith is impressive in workouts, or even at Saint Vincent College for camp, it doesn’t mean he will be the next Harrison. If Ulysees Gilbert is showing off his athleticism in drills doesn’t mean he will supplant a veteran for a job other than as a special teams player.

    A perfect example of this would be the player in the image above — Tyler Matakevich.

    When Matakevich was drafted in the seventh round of the 2016 NFL Draft out of Temple, fans started to do some digging on him as a player. Matakevich received national honors including the AAC Defensive Player of the Year, and the Bronko Nagurski Trophy and the Chuck Bednarik Award. He was a tackling machine in college, and fans saw him as a future stud on the inside of the Steelers defense.

    After Ryan Shazier was injured in 2017, many wanted to see Matakevich finally get his chance to play. What did we see? An instinctual linebacker who lacked the athleticism to play the position at the highest level.

    This isn’t a cut on Matakevich, just reality.

    Matakevich is a very strong special teams player, and every team in the NFL needs guys who are nothing but depth, but play a significant role on special teams.

    And that is okay.

    For some of these draft picks, mainly players like Gilbert and Smith, if they become special teams demons and quality depth that should be viewed as a victory for the organization. After all, special teams was how Harrison got his start with the Steelers, and after Joey Porter was ejected from a game in Cleveland he was given the chance to show what he can do as a starter.

    Love these players, like you should all of the guys who don the black-and-gold, but also temper expectations. If they exceed those expectations it’s icing on the cake!

    As always,

    HERE WE GO STEELERS!

    https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/5/5/18529830/a-letter-from-the-editor-the-infatuation-with-draft-picks-reaches-new-levels-2019-nfl-draft-steelers
    Great read. Thanks Ruthless

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    The Steelers' special team units were good under Cowher early on when he was still working with Noll's players.

    But once most of those players left, our special teams greatly declined.
    And Cowher massively underperformed in the playoffs for like a decade and a half. Then he won, had a terrible run as defending SB Champs and walked away mostly on top.

    Folks who were on the Trib probably remember having these same conversations about BC before he won.

    And back then Dan R was the dotting old fool who couldn't get it done, but Art II was the bad ass young gun who was going to get us back on top. Now we lose because Art II lost the magic dust his father was still sprinkling on the team while we was alive.

  9. #49
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    Analyzing how expectations change based solely on draft position

    How much is our criticism of players is based on where they were selected in the draft?

    By Dave Schofield
    May 7, 2019, 9:10am EDT

    Numerical value means a lot when determining a players worth, especially in today’s NFL. When a player is signed with a team as a free agent, the expectation is often based on the dollar value associated with the contract. Players signing for the minimum usually don’t disappoint because the expectation is so low. Likewise, players who take up a large space of the salary cap when signing as a free agent are expected to produce at a high level.

    The same can be said about the NFL draft. Where a player is chosen, specifically the round in which they are chosen, weighs a lot for the expectation of that players career. If a player is a first round pick, teams are quick to call the player a bust. But if the same player were taken in the fourth round, teams would be pleasantly surprised with their production.

    It’s hard to say what will happen with the Steelers 2019 draft choices. Will they live up to the position at which they were drafted? Only time will tell. But imagine a scenario where the players drafted by the Steelers over the past five years were taken in a different round. What would our expectations be? Just for fun, let’s swap draft positions from two different players over the last five drafts beginning with 2018. Does our perspective of the players change?

    Let’s dive down the rabbit hole…

    2018

    Terrell Edmunds (1st round) and Mason Rudolph (beginning of the 3rd round)

    The biggest problem a lot of Steeler Nation had with the Edmunds pick was he was not considered first-round material, even in his own eyes. Yes, reports were he was moving up teams draft boards prior to Thursday night, but many believed it was a reach to take Edmunds in the first.

    I was one of many (possibly misguided) people who wanted the Steelers to take Mason Rudolph in the first round. I felt he was the quarterback of the future and would be a great fit to play a few years behind Rothlisberger. Instead, the Steelers went with Edmunds and traded up in the beginning of the third round to get Rudolph.

    Imagine if the two selections were switched. How would Steelers Nation view Rudolph being a first round pick? Many have written him off because he was only selected in the third round and will not be the answer once Ben Roethlisberger retires. Does the round he was drafted completely determine his future value? Or with his play on the field be the driving force behind his future in the NFL?

    As for Edmunds, he played in every game this past season and started 15. He logged the most snaps on the team, tied with Ramon Foster and Alejandro Villanueva. If Edmunds was the player the Steelers had fall to them in the top of the third round, how would he be embraced by Steelers fans? Would he be considered a wonderful surprise for what they expected?

    New Expectation:

    Mason Rudolph in the 1st: The next franchise quarterback

    Terrell Edmunds in the 3rd: The next defensive play-maker


    2017

    Colin Holba (6th round) and Keion Adams (7th round)

    It’s hard to question many moves in the 2017 draft, especially when three of the top four selections by the Steelers made the Pro Bowl in their second year in the league. Therefore, let’s look at just making a very quick late round switch.

    Many Steeler fans were dumbfounded that the Steelers would draft a long snapper, let alone in the sixth round. Greg Warren had been entrenched the position for a long time. But unbeknownst to Steeler fans, Warren was dealing with a career ending injury. Therefore the Steelers drafted Colin Holba in the sixth round.

    But what if they chose to wait until their final pick, one of the last few in the draft? I have a feeling many fans would not have had much of a problem. It became a position of need, therefore taking one of the best players at that position at the last possible moment would have been a wise decision. There was no guarantee the Steelers could have convinced one of the top long snappers to sign with them as an undrafted free agent.

    One of the biggest knocks on the pick of Holba was the fact he did not manage to win the job even after Greg Warren was released. Instead, Kam Canaday has been the long snapper for the Steelers ever since.

    As for the other side of the equation, whether Keion Adams was selected in the sixth or seventh round as an outside linebacker probably would not have changed expectations for him over the last two seasons. Having him stick around on the practice squad after being placed on IR his rookie season while still having the potential to make the 53 man roster for 2019 would have been welcomed regardless if he was taken 35 spots earlier.

    New Expectation:

    Keion Adams in the 6th: Still a developmental pass rusher on the practice squad

    Colin Holba in the 7th: Still a somewhat wasted pick since he was cut, but at least it was only pick 248.


    2016

    Artie Burns (1st round) and Javon Hargrave (3rd round)

    Looking at the 2016 draft, any player of the ones the Steelers selected would have been considered a reach in the first round. It just so happens Artie Burns was that player. He could have just as easily been available in the second or third round for all we know.

    The start of Artie Burns’ career really showed some promise, but as time went on his confidence went from shakey to nonexistent. Could part of his problems be the high expectations of a first round pick? Would he have thrived if he was selected in the third round and had a chip on his shoulder to show what he could do? I wish these questions were the reality Artie Burns was given, but unfortunately they are not.

    Had Javon Hargrave been the first round selection of the Steelers in 2016, the expectations would’ve been skyhigh for him. He started 13 games as a rookie with good statistics for a nose tackle which included a fumble recovery for a touchdown. If he were a fist round pick, rather than being a pleasant surprise, he might have been considered only average based on his high draft position. But after three seasons, I think the Steelers would have exercised his fifth year option, unlike Artie Burns.

    New Expectation:

    Javon Hargrave in the 1st: His fifth year option picked up, but he would have to really prove something beyond 2019.

    Artie Burns in the 3rd: Continuing to hope his head gets on straight because his athletic ability is through the roof.


    2015

    Sammie Coates (3rd round) and Jesse James (5th round)

    This one is interesting since neither one of these players are still on the Steelers roster. Sammy Coates had one big game against the Jets where he managed to mangle his hand to a point he never recovered. As he tried to continue to play through the injury, he probably did himself no favors with his long-term career and may have been better off having surgery immediately.

    If Coats would have been selected in the fifth round, it probably would have made more sense to play through the injury as a return to the roster was not guaranteed. But chances are, as a fifth round pick, the Steelers might have continued to see what would happen instead of shipping him off to Cleveland.

    As for Jesse James, part of his appeal was that he had great production for a fifth round selection. Had he been taken in the third round, the Steelers may have turned to him to be the number one tight end rather than make a trade for Vance McDonald. Even if they still made the trade, the two may have been on more equal grounds.

    If James was a third round selection, would the Steelers haven given him a contract before he hit free agency? Would they have been more likely to retain him because of where he was selected? I think so.

    New Expectation:

    Jesse James in the 3rd: The Steelers sign him to a long-term deal before free agency in 2019.

    Sammie Coats in the 5th: The Steelers never trade him to Cleveland. He sticks around at the bottom of the roster for another season before being released.


    2014

    Dri Archer (3rd round) and Daniel McCullers (6th round)

    I almost went with Martavis Bryant, but I feel switching him and Archer would not have made much of a difference. If Archer would have been selected in the sixth round of the 2014 draft, there’s a good chance he would not have even made the 53-man roster. It’s seed apparent his desire to play football was lacking and the only reason he stuck around into his second season was because they had used a third round pick to obtain him.

    Personally, I feel the Steelers have treated Daniel McCullers like a player they drafted in the third round. There have been many times where fans wondered why the Steelers have been sticking with him for so long with so little production. It was almost as if he had been highly drafted and they were continuing to see how he would develop. But as only a six round pick, it’s surprising he was not cut loose several seasons ago.

    New Expectation:

    Daniel McCullers in the 3rd: The Steelers continue to try to develop him on cheap contracts hoping he will pan out (in other words, no different than what they have done).

    Dri Archer in the 6th: straight to the practice squad his rookie season, if he even bothered to report.

    https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/5/7/18530705/analyzing-how-expectations-change-based-on-draft-position-steelers-terrell-edmunds-artie-burns
    Steeler teams featuring stat-driven, me-first, fantasy-football-darling diva types such as Antonio Brown & Le'Veon Bell won no championships.

    Super Bowl winning Steeler teams were built around a dynamic, in-your-face defense plus blue-collar, hard-hitting, no-nonsense football players on offense such as Hines Ward & Jerome Bettis.

    We don't want Juju & Conner to replace what we lost in Brown & Bell.

    We are counting on Juju & Conner to return us to the glory we once had with Hines & The Bus.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    Contrast this to what you said in another post (also from today)

    http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums...d=1#post764904



    Sounds like you're saying "facts I agree with can't be argued".
    BOOM!!!

    and BOOM!!! again.

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