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Thread: Captain Lemmings stimulated a question....

  1. #1
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    Captain Lemmings stimulated a question....

    Here's a quote by the Captain:

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Lemming View Post

    Maniac.......who is the most successful coach in Steeler history?
    Chuck Noll coached TWENTY THREE YEARS.

    He had 4 rings during a concentrated period of 6 years when he had NINE hall of famers.
    EVERY SINGLE SB SEASON INCLUDED ALL OF THEM.
    Even in the midst of our run, we LOST during the only season of the period when we missed ONE HOF player.
    We lost in 1976 without Franco. Lost in 77 with all nine HOFers in their prime.

    Noll has no SB victories in the 18 seasons in his career he did not have NINE healthy HOFers on his team.

    Outside of BB......talent matters more than coaching.

    Here's my question: If you believe in the above quote by the Captain (and alot of us do) then why does everyone want to trade down more then to trade up ? Because if it's about talent, like the Captain is saying, isn't it more important to get quality over quantity and go up and get Devin White or Devin Bush if their that elite of a talent?

    So many posters have said, " trade down, trade down" and I understand why (maybe hit on a diamond because of quantity of picks) but if either of the Devin's can be that much of a difference for us on defense (like Leonard was for the Colts defense last year) shouldn't we just go up and get one of them? We are at a cross roads in many ways; shouldn't we get that front seven (specifically the linebackers) some ELITE talent to help the back end? Since a lot of people say that talent matters most?

    Thoughts?
    From the 2010-2018 season, (8 years after Cowher's players & coaches had left) Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games. And two of those wins were against back up Quarterbacks. Our history has been defined by what we do in the postseason; not the regular season.

  2. #2
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    I see two guys in this draft as being as close to sure things at their positions that I can imagine. Devin White seems to check off every box that I look for in a ILB and T.J. Hockenson seems to check off every box that I look for in a TE. Both are excellent athletes, who were very productive in college, at big schools who played against against top notch competition. Both appear to be solid citizens with strong work ethics, leadership qualities, and high football IQ's. Devin White is able to defend against the run sideline-to-sideline as well as in the box, and he is also able to cover TE's and RB's and blitz the QB as well. T.J. Hockenson is one of the best blocking TE's in the draft who also runs great routes and has hands like glue. I struggle to find a weakness in either of their games, and both would be excellent additions to our team...either guy would be very much worth trading up for in my mind.

    I'm not sure what the exact data shows about the hit rates for picks in round 1 vs. rounds 2-3, but just based on my own personal observations, it seems to me that, league wide, only about 50% of the players taken in the 1st round of any draft end up developing into legit quality NFL starters (I'd say Colbert's overall record in round 1 would be better than the baseline NFL average, but overall, I'd say it appears to be a roughly 50-50 proposition that the typical player drafted by any given NFL team in round 1 lives up to his pre-draft billing). And I'd guess that, on day two of the draft (rounds 2 & 3), the probability of any pick developing into a legit quality NFL starter likely drops down closer to 25% (and a much smaller percentage in rounds 4-7 on day three of the draft, which is where you typically get depth players and special teamers as opposed to legit quality NFL starters).

    So, just based on these number approximations off the top of my head (again, not scientific at all...strictly opinion based), if I think that White or Hock are near 100% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, and I think that the average day 1 pick has a 50% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, and the average day 2 pick has a 25% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, then it makes sense that I would be willing to trade our 1st round pick and a couple of day 2 picks (preferably one from this year and one from next year to balance out the overall hit...doesn't really matter to me if it's a 2019 2nd & 2020 3rd or a 2019 3rd & 2020 2nd).

    Since we've got the extra 3rd rounder this year from the AB trade, and expect to receive an extra 3rd round comp pick next year for Bell, we could make a trade like this and still end up with a truly elite player now, plus still 2 picks on day two of the draft this year, and next year we'd still have a 1st round pick and 2 picks on day two of the draft as well.

    Normally, to get elite quality, you would have to sacrifice quantity (like we did in the Polamalu draft...we got a Hall of Famer in Troy, but then had only 4 picks left after him to fill other holes). This year, with the extra picks as ammunition, we could potentially obtain an elite quality talent without having to give up much of our overall quantity of picks. By giving up a day 2 selection this year and next year, if we could somehow pull off this projected trade, we'd still have 9 overall picks this year and 7 overall picks next year.
    Trade 1.20, 2.52, & 2020 3rd for 1.8 or 1.9

    1.8 or 1.9 ILB Devin White
    3.66 OLB Chase Winovich
    3.83 S Amani Hooker
    4.122 TE Dawson Knox
    5.141 CB Kris Boyd
    6.175 WR Keelan Doss
    6.192 G Beau Benzschawel
    6.207 RB Kerrith Whyte
    7.219 DE Armon Watts

    or

    1.20 CB Byron Murphy
    2.52 OLB D'Andre Walker
    3.66 S Darnell Savage
    3.83 WR Miles Boykin
    4.122 ILB David Long
    5.141 C/G Ross Pierschbacher
    6.175 TE Kahele Warring
    6.192 NT Daylon Mack
    6.207 RB Devine Ozigbo
    7.219 DE Albert Huggins

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    Here's a quote by the Captain:




    Here's my question: If you believe in the above quote by the Captain (and alot of us do) then why does everyone want to trade down more then to trade up ? Because if it's about talent, like the Captain is saying, isn't it more important to get quality over quantity and go up and get Devin White or Devin Bush if their that elite of a talent?

    So many posters have said, " trade down, trade down" and I understand why (maybe hit on a diamond because of quantity of picks) but if either of the Devin's can be that much of a difference for us on defense (like Leonard was for the Colts defense last year) shouldn't we just go up and get one of them? We are at a cross roads in many ways; shouldn't we get that front seven (specifically the linebackers) some ELITE talent to help the back end? Since a lot of people say that talent matters most?

    Thoughts?
    Im for moving up.

    However, the flip side is if you look at the 70s Steelers.....that doesnt happen if we traded up giving up picks in say 74 when we drafted 4 HOFers.

    I look at it as more of how we got Troy more recently for our mor recent run.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    I see two guys in this draft as being as close to sure things at their positions that I can imagine. Devin White seems to check off every box that I look for in a ILB and T.J. Hockenson seems to check off every box that I look for in a TE. Both are excellent athletes, who were very productive in college, at big schools who played against against top notch competition. Both appear to be solid citizens with strong work ethics, leadership qualities, and high football IQ's. Devin White is able to defend against the run sideline-to-sideline as well as in the box, and he is also able to cover TE's and RB's and blitz the QB as well. T.J. Hockenson is one of the best blocking TE's in the draft who also runs great routes and has hands like glue. I struggle to find a weakness in either of their games, and both would be excellent additions to our team...either guy would be very much worth trading up for in my mind.

    I'm not sure what the exact data shows about the hit rates for picks in round 1 vs. rounds 2-3, but just based on my own personal observations, it seems to me that, league wide, only about 50% of the players taken in the 1st round of any draft end up developing into legit quality NFL starters (I'd say Colbert's overall record in round 1 would be better than the baseline NFL average, but overall, I'd say it appears to be a roughly 50-50 proposition that the typical player drafted by any given NFL team in round 1 lives up to his pre-draft billing). And I'd guess that, on day two of the draft (rounds 2 & 3), the probability of any pick developing into a legit quality NFL starter likely drops down closer to 25% (and a much smaller percentage in rounds 4-7 on day three of the draft, which is where you typically get depth players and special teamers as opposed to legit quality NFL starters).

    So, just based on these number approximations off the top of my head (again, not scientific at all...strictly opinion based), if I think that White or Hock are near 100% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, and I think that the average day 1 pick has a 50% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, and the average day 2 pick has a 25% likelihood of developing into a legit quality NFL starter, then it makes sense that I would be willing to trade our 1st round pick and a couple of day 2 picks (preferably one from this year and one from next year to balance out the overall hit...doesn't really matter to me if it's a 2019 2nd & 2020 3rd or a 2019 3rd & 2020 2nd).

    Since we've got the extra 3rd rounder this year from the AB trade, and expect to receive an extra 3rd round comp pick next year for Bell, we could make a trade like this and still end up with a truly elite player now, plus still 2 picks on day two of the draft this year, and next year we'd still have a 1st round pick and 2 picks on day two of the draft as well.

    Normally, to get elite quality, you would have to sacrifice quantity (like we did in the Polamalu draft...we got a Hall of Famer in Troy, but then had only 4 picks left after him to fill other holes). This year, with the extra picks as ammunition, we could potentially obtain an elite quality talent without having to give up much of our overall quantity of picks. By giving up a day 2 selection this year and next year, if we could somehow pull off this projected trade, we'd still have 9 overall picks this year and 7 overall picks next year.
    Reposted so you could see the reply in case you still got him on ignore

  5. #5
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    I don't read anything with Ruth post involved; It's just good business (I think) going forward in doing that. But I'm sure others consider what he says valuable.
    **The question is just to get different insights and why from everyone. That's what a poster room is about.
    From the 2010-2018 season, (8 years after Cowher's players & coaches had left) Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games. And two of those wins were against back up Quarterbacks. Our history has been defined by what we do in the postseason; not the regular season.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    Here's a quote by the Captain:




    Here's my question: If you believe in the above quote by the Captain (and alot of us do) then why does everyone want to trade down more then to trade up ? Because if it's about talent, like the Captain is saying, isn't it more important to get quality over quantity and go up and get Devin White or Devin Bush if their that elite of a talent?

    So many posters have said, " trade down, trade down" and I understand why (maybe hit on a diamond because of quantity of picks) but if either of the Devin's can be that much of a difference for us on defense (like Leonard was for the Colts defense last year) shouldn't we just go up and get one of them? We are at a cross roads in many ways; shouldn't we get that front seven (specifically the linebackers) some ELITE talent to help the back end? Since a lot of people say that talent matters most?

    Thoughts?
    Quality over quantity 100%, but who know how the draft falls. Let's us last years draft, what if we traded our 1.28 (660 pts) ( Edmunds) to INdy for their 2.36 (Leonard LB) + 4.104 ( Hines RB) ( Keke Coutee was 103)+ 5.169 ( Wilkins RB) ( total 650.8 points)

    Look how we would of looked this year having our rising sideline to sideline ILB in Leonard and 2 good backup RBs.
    Last edited by steeler_george; 04-10-2019 at 01:17 PM.
    ďIím so tired of LeíVeon," DeCastro told reporters (h/t ESPN's Jeremy Fowler ([url]https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1038909446146203649[/url])) after Sunday's game. "Iím so tired of it. Letís just worry about the guys in here. I know you guys have stories to write and what not. I love LeíVeon, but we gotta worry about the guys in here. Theyíre the only people that matter to me."



  7. #7
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    That is why it is hard to make a trade up or down, because others may see that quality as fools gold, while the other sees that quantity to be investment to make that gold.
    ďIím so tired of LeíVeon," DeCastro told reporters (h/t ESPN's Jeremy Fowler ([url]https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1038909446146203649[/url])) after Sunday's game. "Iím so tired of it. Letís just worry about the guys in here. I know you guys have stories to write and what not. I love LeíVeon, but we gotta worry about the guys in here. Theyíre the only people that matter to me."



  8. #8
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    ARTICLE Steelers Roster Construction Could Signal Draft Day Move
    By Alex Kozora Posted on April 9, 2019 at 5:00 pm

    Let’s be clear about one thing. The five AAF players signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers have no bearing on who they’ll draft. Jack Tocho isn’t stopping the team from adding a safety. Nor is Casey Sayles going to prevent them from taking a defensive end in the mid-rounds.

    However, it could impact how they draft. At least, it sorta feels like it. Combing over the roster, they now have 76 players, including Ryan Shazier. Add in ten draft picks and you’re at 86. Seems pretty high, doesn’t it? Knowing they bring in roughly another ten UDFAs per class, the math doesn’t add up, well over the maximum of 90.

    Sure, they could cut down the roster after the fact. Release players signed to futures deals they don’t value as high as a particular free agent. That’s possible.

    It’s also possible this is a signal to their draft day plans. That Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin have no intention of drafting anywhere near ten players. Make it more like six or seven, getting them much closer to 90 the day after the draft.

    Obviously, that means a plan to trade up somewhere. The clearest candidate is a plan to jump up from #20 and attack someone like Devin Bush. It could happen elsewhere, too, trading up in the second-round to get whoever they really like. Maybe an inside linebacker like Texas’ Gary Johnson. Maybe a totally different position. They could go in virtually any direction – receiver, linebacker, safety, tight end, corner, and even running back looks in play for Day Two.

    I know. My tinfoil hat is probably on a little too tight. The AAF folding couldn’t be planned and is definitely in part the team capitalizing on the opportunity. But with all the picks they’ve acquired for this year, and the knowledge they likely have a third round comp pick coming to them in 2020 for Le’Veon Bell, I can’t help but think we’re in for a busy draft day.
    From the 2010-2018 season, (8 years after Cowher's players & coaches had left) Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games. And two of those wins were against back up Quarterbacks. Our history has been defined by what we do in the postseason; not the regular season.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by steeler_george View Post
    Quality over quantity 100%, but who know how the draft falls. Let's us last years draft, what if we traded our 1.28 (660 pts) ( Edmunds) to INdy for their 2.36 (Leonard LB) + 4.104 ( Hines RB) ( Keke Coutee was 103)+ 5.169 ( Wilkins RB) ( total 650.8 points)

    Look how we would of looked this year having our rising sideline to sideline ILB in Leonard and 2 good backup RBs.
    Heck of a point..............
    From the 2010-2018 season, (8 years after Cowher's players & coaches had left) Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games. And two of those wins were against back up Quarterbacks. Our history has been defined by what we do in the postseason; not the regular season.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by steeler_george View Post
    That is why it is hard to make a trade up or down, because others may see that quality as fools gold, while the other sees that quantity to be investment to make that gold.
    Well, I trust Colbert. And if Bush or White are legit game changers ( by Colbert's estimation) and can definitely take our defense to the next level, I'm all for trading up to get one of them. Now I am.

    If you use the argument that Coach Knoll needed the HOF's he had to achieve what he did, then we have an even lesser coach today; So he DEFINITELY needs game changers to achieve. So yeah, I'm all for going up and getting one of the Devin's now. We need legit talent; If it is deemed legit talent.
    From the 2010-2018 season, (8 years after Cowher's players & coaches had left) Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games. And two of those wins were against back up Quarterbacks. Our history has been defined by what we do in the postseason; not the regular season.

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