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Thread: Captain Lemmings stimulated a question....

  1. #11
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    I don't know enough about the players in the draft. But here are the arguments as I see them.

    My baseline position is that player value increases exponentially as you move from below average to average to elite. Most impact stats (e.g. TDs, explosive plays, ints, FFs, sacks, etc) aren't normally distributed. Instead, elite players have much higher impact than regular players. This means that the (vast?) majority of players are below average in these impact categories. Even better than that, landing an elite player in the 1st round of the draft means that I have control of the player's rights and can get him for under market value for at least 7 years (5 on contract + 2 tags).

    So in either scenario, my goal in a draft is to get elite players. Although I'd even be happy with an average player because most players are below average.

    Trade up: Scouting is pretty accurate. The player we want has a high likelihood of being elite and will be taken before we pick. Lower picks have a low likelihood of being elite. Since elite players are worth so much more than typical players, trading picks to land one elite player is the better way to go. We can always pick up replacement level players from the bargain bin in UFA to plug holes while we swing for the fences in the draft.

    Trade down: Scouting is more like picking stocks (or even worse buying lottery tickets). It gives us some idea of who's going to be good, but there's a ton of uncertainty / luck involved. Maybe moving from 20 - 28 or something doesn't dramatically affect the chance that player will be elite, but it gives me another lottery ticket.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    I'm not sure what the exact data shows about the hit rates for picks in round 1 vs. rounds 2-3, but just based on my own personal observations, it seems to me that, league wide, only about 50% of the players taken in the 1st round of any draft end up developing into legit quality NFL starters (I'd say Colbert's overall record in round 1 would be better than the baseline NFL average, but overall, I'd say it appears to be a roughly 50-50 proposition that the typical player drafted by any given NFL team in round 1 lives up to his pre-draft billing). And I'd guess that, on day two of the draft (rounds 2 & 3), the probability of any pick developing into a legit quality NFL starter likely drops down closer to 25% (and a much smaller percentage in rounds 4-7 on day three of the draft, which is where you typically get depth players and special teamers as opposed to legit quality NFL starters).
    I've never seen something like this for the NFL.

    I read a few hockey blogs, and they post this information for the NHL draft. I think they measure "success" by games played (something like played 100 NHL games).

    If I remember right:
    - There's an elite range that's something like the top 3 - 5.
    - Then there's another tier from like 5 - 20.
    - Then I think there's not much difference between something like late 1st rounders to 3rd rounders.

    It would be interesting to see if similar results hold for the NFL

  3. #13
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    I see absolutely no reason to draft 10 players when at least 40% have little chance to make the roster. I would be fine coming out of this with 6 picks, 7 at the most

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Spaghetti View Post
    I see absolutely no reason to draft 10 players when at least 40% have little chance to make the roster. I would be fine coming out of this with 6 picks, 7 at the most
    I'm in your camp Eddie; If we can trade up to get Devin White, then I'm on board to give up the picks to get him. I know the Bucs like him (that's what I've been hearing) but maybe if Murray goes at # 1 (pushing a stud down to the Bucs) then we've got a shot at White sliding a few more spots; and we can get up to # 8 (Lions pick) and grab him. At least, that's the hope. If not, then target Bush.
    From the 2010-2018 season, (An 8 year period that the majority of Cowher's players & coaches had left) Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games. And two of those wins were against back up Quarterbacks. Our history has been defined by what we do in the postseason; not the regular season.

  5. #15
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    I don't see Bush as being the sure thing that I see White and Hockenson being.

    He's certainly an impressive athletic speciman, but I don't see the complete and total package football player by any means.

    If he puts it all together, he could be really awesome, but if not he might just be a bust at the next level, and I'm not willing to give up prime picks to go after a guy with any significant degree of bust potential (I think the bust potential for White or Hock being infinitesimally small).

    Don't get me wrong, I'd be thrilled if Bush fell to us at #20, but the only trade up for Bush that I would personally endorse would be a minor trade up a few spots (giving up only extra day three picks, not prime day two picks).
    Steeler teams featuring stat-driven, me-first, fantasy-football-darling diva types such as Antonio Brown & Le'Veon Bell won no championships.

    Super Bowl winning Steeler teams were built around a dynamic, in-your-face defense plus blue-collar, hard-hitting, no-nonsense football players on offense such as Hines Ward & Jerome Bettis.

    We don't want Juju & Conner to replace what we lost in Brown & Bell.

    We are counting on Juju & Conner to return us to the glory we once had with Hines & The Bus.

  6. #16
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    Just make sure you pick the right ones if you move up.

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh wow View Post
    Just make sure you pick the right ones if you move up.
    yeah, don't move up for a Ricardo Colclough...

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    ARTICLE Steelers Roster Construction Could Signal Draft Day Move
    By Alex Kozora Posted on April 9, 2019 at 5:00 pm

    Let’s be clear about one thing. The five AAF players signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers have no bearing on who they’ll draft. Jack Tocho isn’t stopping the team from adding a safety. Nor is Casey Sayles going to prevent them from taking a defensive end in the mid-rounds.

    However, it could impact how they draft. At least, it sorta feels like it. Combing over the roster, they now have 76 players, including Ryan Shazier. Add in ten draft picks and you’re at 86. Seems pretty high, doesn’t it? Knowing they bring in roughly another ten UDFAs per class, the math doesn’t add up, well over the maximum of 90.

    Sure, they could cut down the roster after the fact. Release players signed to futures deals they don’t value as high as a particular free agent. That’s possible.

    It’s also possible this is a signal to their draft day plans. That Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin have no intention of drafting anywhere near ten players. Make it more like six or seven, getting them much closer to 90 the day after the draft.

    Obviously, that means a plan to trade up somewhere. The clearest candidate is a plan to jump up from #20 and attack someone like Devin Bush. It could happen elsewhere, too, trading up in the second-round to get whoever they really like. Maybe an inside linebacker like Texas’ Gary Johnson. Maybe a totally different position. They could go in virtually any direction – receiver, linebacker, safety, tight end, corner, and even running back looks in play for Day Two.

    I know. My tinfoil hat is probably on a little too tight. The AAF folding couldn’t be planned and is definitely in part the team capitalizing on the opportunity. But with all the picks they’ve acquired for this year, and the knowledge they likely have a third round comp pick coming to them in 2020 for Le’Veon Bell, I can’t help but think we’re in for a busy draft day.
    Okay so I'll start by saying Alex is a close friend who is exceptionally knowledgeable. Now I agree with him in we'll see some movement however it may not be exactly as folks have outlined. I'll explain.
    We have drafted D a bunch of years in a row and I don't see that changing this year either unless a Hockenson were to fall to 20 and I do not believe that is likely. We only have a few guys who jump out as close to perfect fits on D... ..White,Bush ,Allen , Sweat ,perhaps Burns. So say they are all gone as is Hock.
    Stay pat at 20 n grab a solid D lineman or a solid corner n there is nothing wrong with that. However a slight trade back to 23 or 24 could give us a extra pick or 2 to allow us a decent move up in round 2 into say top 42 where the value there isn't much different than what we get at 23 imho. And we still have 9 or 10 picks.
    So as AK stated movement may take place. And I believe movement may be in both directions just to add to the intrigue of draft day and all the options that exist.

    Curious to see where folks believe value lies in this draft and how to go about maxing out that value.

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    Here's a quote by the Captain:




    Here's my question: If you believe in the above quote by the Captain (and alot of us do) then why does everyone want to trade down more then to trade up ? Because if it's about talent, like the Captain is saying, isn't it more important to get quality over quantity and go up and get Devin White or Devin Bush if their that elite of a talent?

    So many posters have said, " trade down, trade down" and I understand why (maybe hit on a diamond because of quantity of picks) but if either of the Devin's can be that much of a difference for us on defense (like Leonard was for the Colts defense last year) shouldn't we just go up and get one of them? We are at a cross roads in many ways; shouldn't we get that front seven (specifically the linebackers) some ELITE talent to help the back end? Since a lot of people say that talent matters most?

    Thoughts?
    Having more picks is no different than playing the lottery. If I buy 1 ticket that has a 1:1000000 chance to win, my chances are lower than if I buy two tickets. The chance of either ticket winning is still 1:1000000, but now the chances of having a winning ticket is 1:500000.

    btw, since we are talking about the draft, here is a repost on safest picks to make. Seems the Steelers needs fit nicely with being the safest picks:


  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    Having more picks is no different than playing the lottery. If I buy 1 ticket that has a 1:1000000 chance to win, my chances are lower than if I buy two tickets. The chance of either ticket winning is still 1:1000000, but now the chances of having a winning ticket is 1:500000.

    btw, since we are talking about the draft, here is a repost on safest picks to make. Seems the Steelers needs fit nicely with being the safest picks:

    That's a sweet graphic!

    Interesting that we tend to be good at drafting WR which seems less safe than DB (which we seem to miss at more)

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