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Thread: Max laughs at Tomlin being on the hot seat

  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawaiiansteel View Post
    I still believe if Kordell would have accepted his Slash role he might have had a shot at the Hall of Fame.
    I doubt it. He would’ve been another Randle El imo.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh wow View Post
    I doubt it. He would’ve been another Randle El imo.
    Well, at least he would have thrown a TD pass in a Super Bowl then.
    Steeler teams featuring stat-driven, me-first, fantasy-football-darling diva types such as Antonio Brown & Le'Veon Bell won no championships.

    Super Bowl winning Steeler teams were built around a dynamic, in-your-face defense plus blue-collar, hard-hitting, no-nonsense football players on offense such as Hines Ward & Jerome Bettis.

    We don't want Juju & Conner to replace what we lost in Brown & Bell.

    We are counting on Juju & Conner to return us to the glory we once had with Hines & The Bus.

  3. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    Well, at least he would have thrown a TD pass in a Super Bowl then.
    That's...well...Ruthless.

  4. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oh wow View Post
    Here is the thing, it’s not even possible to have his winning percentage and have a history of losing to inferior teams.

    • 2009, Week 11: 6-3 Steelers lose to 2-7 Chiefs (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/KC/kansas-city-chiefs), 27-24. Line: Steelers -11.5
    • 2009, Week 13: 6-5 Steelers lose to 3-8 Raiders (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/OAK/oakland-raiders), 27-24. Line: Steelers -15
    • 2009, Week 14: 6-6 Steelers lose to 1-11 Browns (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/CLE/cleveland-browns), 13-6. Line: Steelers -10
    • 2012, Week 3: 1-1 Steelers lose to 0-2 Raiders (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/OAK/oakland-raiders/), 34-31. Line: Steelers -4
    • 2012, Week 6: 2-2 Steelers lose to 1-4 Titans (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/TEN/tennessee-titans), 26-23. Line: Steelers -6.5
    • 2012, Week 12: 6-4 Steelers lose to 2-8 Browns (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/CLE/cleveland-browns/), 20-14. Line: Steelers -2
    • 2012, Week 14: 7-4 Steelers lose to 4-8 Chargers (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/LAC/l-a-chargers-chargers), 34-24. Line: Steelers -7.5
    • 2013, Week 4: 0-3 Steelers lose to 0-3 Vikings (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/MIN/minnesota-vikings), 34-27. Line: Steelers -3
    • 2013, Week 8: 2-4 Steelers lose to 2-4 Raiders, 21-18. Line: Steelers -2.5
    • 2014, Week 4: 2-1 Steelers lose to 0-3 Buccaneers (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/TB/tampa-bay-buccaneers), 27-24. Line: Steelers -7.5
    • 2014, Week 10: 6-3 Steelers lose to 1-8 Jets (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NYJ/n-y-jets-jets), 20-13. Line: Steelers -4
    • 2014, Week 13: 7-4 Steelers lose to the 4-7 Saints (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NO/new-orleans-saints), 35-32. Line: Steelers -3.5
    • 2015, Week 16: 9-5 Steelers lose to the 4-10 Ravens (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/BAL/baltimore-ravens), 20-10. Line: Steelers -10
    • 2016, Week 6: 4-1 Steelers lose to the 1-4 Dolphins (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/MIA/miami-dolphins/), 30-15. Line: Steelers -7
    • 2017, Week 3: 2-0 Steelers lose to the 0-2 Bears, 23-17. Line: Steelers -7

    That's 15 losses over seven seasons to teams with a combined record of 25-89, which works out to a winning percentage of .219. The Steelers, meanwhile, were 66-46, a winning percentage of .589. The Steelers were also favored in every game.

    https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS812US812&ei=YWi1XJrdNKnm0gL Rk5roDA&q=steelers+schedule+2017+printable&oq=stee lers+2017+results&gs_l=psy-ab.1.2.0i71l8.0.0..34344...0.0..0.0.0.......0..... .gws-wiz.MIHyckX953A

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJ-STEELER View Post
    • 2009, Week 11: 6-3 Steelers lose to 2-7 Chiefs (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/KC/kansas-city-chiefs), 27-24. Line: Steelers -11.5
    • 2009, Week 13: 6-5 Steelers lose to 3-8 Raiders (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/OAK/oakland-raiders), 27-24. Line: Steelers -15
    • 2009, Week 14: 6-6 Steelers lose to 1-11 Browns (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/CLE/cleveland-browns), 13-6. Line: Steelers -10
    • 2012, Week 3: 1-1 Steelers lose to 0-2 Raiders (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/OAK/oakland-raiders/), 34-31. Line: Steelers -4
    • 2012, Week 6: 2-2 Steelers lose to 1-4 Titans (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/TEN/tennessee-titans), 26-23. Line: Steelers -6.5
    • 2012, Week 12: 6-4 Steelers lose to 2-8 Browns (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/CLE/cleveland-browns/), 20-14. Line: Steelers -2
    • 2012, Week 14: 7-4 Steelers lose to 4-8 Chargers (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/LAC/l-a-chargers-chargers), 34-24. Line: Steelers -7.5
    • 2013, Week 4: 0-3 Steelers lose to 0-3 Vikings (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/MIN/minnesota-vikings), 34-27. Line: Steelers -3
    • 2013, Week 8: 2-4 Steelers lose to 2-4 Raiders, 21-18. Line: Steelers -2.5
    • 2014, Week 4: 2-1 Steelers lose to 0-3 Buccaneers (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/TB/tampa-bay-buccaneers), 27-24. Line: Steelers -7.5
    • 2014, Week 10: 6-3 Steelers lose to 1-8 Jets (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NYJ/n-y-jets-jets), 20-13. Line: Steelers -4
    • 2014, Week 13: 7-4 Steelers lose to the 4-7 Saints (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NO/new-orleans-saints), 35-32. Line: Steelers -3.5
    • 2015, Week 16: 9-5 Steelers lose to the 4-10 Ravens (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/BAL/baltimore-ravens), 20-10. Line: Steelers -10
    • 2016, Week 6: 4-1 Steelers lose to the 1-4 Dolphins (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/MIA/miami-dolphins/), 30-15. Line: Steelers -7
    • 2017, Week 3: 2-0 Steelers lose to the 0-2 Bears, 23-17. Line: Steelers -7

    That's 15 losses over seven seasons to teams with a combined record of 25-89, which works out to a winning percentage of .219. The Steelers, meanwhile, were 66-46, a winning percentage of .589. The Steelers were also favored in every game.

    https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS812US812&ei=YWi1XJrdNKnm0gL Rk5roDA&q=steelers+schedule+2017+printable&oq=stee lers+2017+results&gs_l=psy-ab.1.2.0i71l8.0.0..34344...0.0..0.0.0.......0..... .gws-wiz.MIHyckX953A
    Thanks for putting this together!

    Now I think the question is, how does this look for other teams / coaches.

    Those teams we lost to win more than 1/5 games but less than 1/4 games.

    The teams that win at that low a rate probably aren't beating teams with an even lower win rate.

    Your data set includes 15 games over the last 9 seasons (1 or 2 a season). 9 of those losses came in 3 years where we weren't good: 2009 (9-7), 2012 (8-. & 2013 (8-. Hard to say we were big favorites in years where we finished at 500 or 1 game above. We're not great every year just because our players walk past old trophies and pictures of HoF players.

    What's the rate we should expect a team to lose games they're favored in?

    I was too lazy to look up if these were home / away games. My understanding is that being at home is generally a stronger advantage than having a better record. Not sure if that's a factor here.

    Gold paragraph was updated after editing
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 04-16-2019 at 11:43 AM.

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJ-STEELER View Post
    • 2009, Week 11: 6-3 Steelers lose to 2-7 Chiefs (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/KC/kansas-city-chiefs), 27-24. Line: Steelers -11.5
    • 2009, Week 13: 6-5 Steelers lose to 3-8 Raiders (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/OAK/oakland-raiders), 27-24. Line: Steelers -15
    • 2009, Week 14: 6-6 Steelers lose to 1-11 Browns (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/CLE/cleveland-browns), 13-6. Line: Steelers -10
    • 2012, Week 3: 1-1 Steelers lose to 0-2 Raiders (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/OAK/oakland-raiders/), 34-31. Line: Steelers -4
    • 2012, Week 6: 2-2 Steelers lose to 1-4 Titans (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/TEN/tennessee-titans), 26-23. Line: Steelers -6.5
    • 2012, Week 12: 6-4 Steelers lose to 2-8 Browns (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/CLE/cleveland-browns/), 20-14. Line: Steelers -2
    • 2012, Week 14: 7-4 Steelers lose to 4-8 Chargers (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/LAC/l-a-chargers-chargers), 34-24. Line: Steelers -7.5
    • 2013, Week 4: 0-3 Steelers lose to 0-3 Vikings (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/MIN/minnesota-vikings), 34-27. Line: Steelers -3
    • 2013, Week 8: 2-4 Steelers lose to 2-4 Raiders, 21-18. Line: Steelers -2.5
    • 2014, Week 4: 2-1 Steelers lose to 0-3 Buccaneers (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/TB/tampa-bay-buccaneers), 27-24. Line: Steelers -7.5
    • 2014, Week 10: 6-3 Steelers lose to 1-8 Jets (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NYJ/n-y-jets-jets), 20-13. Line: Steelers -4
    • 2014, Week 13: 7-4 Steelers lose to the 4-7 Saints (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NO/new-orleans-saints), 35-32. Line: Steelers -3.5
    • 2015, Week 16: 9-5 Steelers lose to the 4-10 Ravens (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/BAL/baltimore-ravens), 20-10. Line: Steelers -10
    • 2016, Week 6: 4-1 Steelers lose to the 1-4 Dolphins (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/MIA/miami-dolphins/), 30-15. Line: Steelers -7
    • 2017, Week 3: 2-0 Steelers lose to the 0-2 Bears, 23-17. Line: Steelers -7

    That's 15 losses over seven seasons to teams with a combined record of 25-89, which works out to a winning percentage of .219. The Steelers, meanwhile, were 66-46, a winning percentage of .589. The Steelers were also favored in every game.

    https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS812US812&ei=YWi1XJrdNKnm0gL Rk5roDA&q=steelers+schedule+2017+printable&oq=stee lers+2017+results&gs_l=psy-ab.1.2.0i71l8.0.0..34344...0.0..0.0.0.......0..... .gws-wiz.MIHyckX953A
    Thank you for putting this together.
    From the 2010-2018 season, (An 8 year period that the majority of Cowher's players & coaches had left) Mike Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games. And two of those wins were against back up Quarterbacks. Our history has been defined by what we do in the postseason; not the regular season.

  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJ-STEELER View Post
    • 2009, Week 11: 6-3 Steelers lose to 2-7 Chiefs (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/KC/kansas-city-chiefs), 27-24. Line: Steelers -11.5
    • 2009, Week 13: 6-5 Steelers lose to 3-8 Raiders (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/OAK/oakland-raiders), 27-24. Line: Steelers -15
    • 2009, Week 14: 6-6 Steelers lose to 1-11 Browns (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/CLE/cleveland-browns), 13-6. Line: Steelers -10
    • 2012, Week 3: 1-1 Steelers lose to 0-2 Raiders (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/OAK/oakland-raiders/), 34-31. Line: Steelers -4
    • 2012, Week 6: 2-2 Steelers lose to 1-4 Titans (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/TEN/tennessee-titans), 26-23. Line: Steelers -6.5
    • 2012, Week 12: 6-4 Steelers lose to 2-8 Browns (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/CLE/cleveland-browns/), 20-14. Line: Steelers -2
    • 2012, Week 14: 7-4 Steelers lose to 4-8 Chargers (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/LAC/l-a-chargers-chargers), 34-24. Line: Steelers -7.5
    • 2013, Week 4: 0-3 Steelers lose to 0-3 Vikings (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/MIN/minnesota-vikings), 34-27. Line: Steelers -3
    • 2013, Week 8: 2-4 Steelers lose to 2-4 Raiders, 21-18. Line: Steelers -2.5
    • 2014, Week 4: 2-1 Steelers lose to 0-3 Buccaneers (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/TB/tampa-bay-buccaneers), 27-24. Line: Steelers -7.5
    • 2014, Week 10: 6-3 Steelers lose to 1-8 Jets (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NYJ/n-y-jets-jets), 20-13. Line: Steelers -4
    • 2014, Week 13: 7-4 Steelers lose to the 4-7 Saints (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/NO/new-orleans-saints), 35-32. Line: Steelers -3.5
    • 2015, Week 16: 9-5 Steelers lose to the 4-10 Ravens (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/page/BAL/baltimore-ravens), 20-10. Line: Steelers -10
    • 2016, Week 6: 4-1 Steelers lose to the 1-4 Dolphins (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/teams/MIA/miami-dolphins/), 30-15. Line: Steelers -7
    • 2017, Week 3: 2-0 Steelers lose to the 0-2 Bears, 23-17. Line: Steelers -7

    That's 15 losses over seven seasons to teams with a combined record of 25-89, which works out to a winning percentage of .219. The Steelers, meanwhile, were 66-46, a winning percentage of .589. The Steelers were also favored in every game.

    https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS812US812&ei=YWi1XJrdNKnm0gL Rk5roDA&q=steelers+schedule+2017+printable&oq=stee lers+2017+results&gs_l=psy-ab.1.2.0i71l8.0.0..34344...0.0..0.0.0.......0..... .gws-wiz.MIHyckX953A
    Thanks for this.

    2009 we weren’t good.

    I see a few bad losses on there but that’s part of how the NFL works.

    However, how can you put a loss to an 0-3 team when we were also 0-3 as an inferior team?

    Also, there are a few games in here where we were .500. That’s not proof we are superior to an opponent.

    You have to factor in who we beat and who this teams lost to as well.

    Sure if we dig thru most successful franchises over the last 10 years you will have losses to inferior teams on their resume as well. Pats lost to the Lion, the Jags and Miami last year.

    This link gives a good breakdown of how we fair vs inferior teams when the dust settles at the end of the seasons.

    https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...ay-calling-nfl

    Last but not least, who was the QB for most of these losses? Does this reflect bad on Ben as well or just Tomlin?

    Ben is 1-6 on the west coast. 8TD’s, 13 INT’s.. whew. It’s not shocking for a team to play bad when they go across the country.

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    Thanks for putting this together!

    Now I think the question is, how does this look for other teams / coaches.

    Those teams we lost to win more than 1/5 games but less than 1/4 games.

    The teams that win at that low a rate probably aren't beating teams with an even lower win rate.

    Your dataset includes 7 games over the last 5 seasons. What's the rate we should expect a team to lose games they're favored in?

    I was too lazy to look up if these were home / away games. My understanding is that being at home is generally a stronger advantage than having a better record. Not sure if that's a factor here.

    I’m curious how other “superior teams” fair in similar scenarios.

    When you look at Tomlins overall record it’s obvious we beat most of the “inferior teams” over these last 13 years.

  9. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by NJ-STEELER View Post
    • 2009, Week 11: 6-3 Steelers lose to 2-7 Chiefs: Away
    • 2009, Week 13: 6-5 Steelers lose to 3-8 Raiders: Home
    • 2009, Week 14: 6-6 Steelers lose to 1-11 Browns: Away (won the game at home that year)
    • 2012, Week 3: 1-1 Steelers lose to 0-2 Raiders: Away
    • 2012, Week 6: 2-2 Steelers lose to 1-4 Titans: Away
    • 2012, Week 12: 6-4 Steelers lose to 2-8 Browns: Away
    • 2012, Week 14: 7-4 Steelers lose to 4-8 Chargers: Home
    • 2013, Week 4: 0-3 Steelers lose to 0-3 Vikings: Away
    • 2013, Week 8: 2-4 Steelers lose to 2-4 Raiders: Away
    • 2014, Week 4: 2-1 Steelers lose to 0-3 Buccaneers: Home
    • 2014, Week 10: 6-3 Steelers lose to 1-8 Jets: Away
    • 2014, Week 13: 7-4 Steelers lose to the 4-7 Saints: Home
    • 2015, Week 16: 9-5 Steelers lose to the 4-10 Ravens: Home
    • 2016, Week 6: 4-1 Steelers lose to the 1-4 Dolphins: Away
    • 2017, Week 3: 2-0 Steelers lose to the 0-2 Bears, 23-17: Away
    Searching these out was a bit of a pain because the links didn't seem to take me to the games.

    But, what I found was that for the 15 game data set of games where the Steelers were "upset" 10 were away games and 5 were home games.

    That seems to agree with the idea that home field advantage is a bigger advantage than having a better record.

    When I used to read Tuesday Morning QB (column by an economist about football), he consistently showed that the betting strategy of "pick the home team" was better at predicting winners than "picks made by experts / talking heads".

    So, my guess is that our loss rate to teams that are "worse" than us isn't out of line with other teams. But, we'd need to crunch a bunch of data to figure that out.

  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    Searching these out was a bit of a pain because the links didn't seem to take me to the games.

    But, what I found was that for the 15 game data set of games where the Steelers were "upset" 10 were away games and 5 were home games.

    That seems to agree with the idea that home field advantage is a bigger advantage than having a better record.

    When I used to read Tuesday Morning QB (column by an economist about football), he consistently showed that the betting strategy of "pick the home team" was better at predicting winners than "picks made by experts / talking heads".

    So, my guess is that our loss rate to teams that are "worse" than us isn't out of line with other teams. But, we'd need to crunch a bunch of data to figure that out.
    Brady is 7-9 in Miami.

    1-5 in December.

    It’s harder than folks think to win on the road.

    Especially when you add weather and time zones.

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