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Thread: Importance of Keeping the Football

  1. #1
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    Importance of Keeping the Football

    We've all talked about the turnovers hurting the Steelers last season. Analysis shows that once a team has the football they should do everything they can to keep it, including going for it on 4th down:

    Neil Hornsby (PFF Founder), like Sharp, said teams are finally figuring out the value of never giving the ball up. In baseball, analytics staffs had to work to convince managers that you shouldn’t give up outs via sacrifice bunts, since there are only 27 outs for each team in a game. In the NFL, this logic applies to punting. Teams this season average between 10 and 13 drives per game, and 11 teams have fourth-down conversion rates of at least 60 percent. Of the six teams with conversion rates of at least 70 percent, five are locks for the playoffs. The Chiefs have converted 90.9 percent of their fourth downs. The lesson: Do everything you can to keep the ball.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    We've all talked about the turnovers hurting the Steelers last season. Analysis shows that once a team has the football they should do everything they can to keep it, including going for it on 4th down:

    Neil Hornsby (PFF Founder), like Sharp, said teams are finally figuring out the value of never giving the ball up. In baseball, analytics staffs had to work to convince managers that you shouldn’t give up outs via sacrifice bunts, since there are only 27 outs for each team in a game. In the NFL, this logic applies to punting. Teams this season average between 10 and 13 drives per game, and 11 teams have fourth-down conversion rates of at least 60 percent. Of the six teams with conversion rates of at least 70 percent, five are locks for the playoffs. The Chiefs have converted 90.9 percent of their fourth downs. The lesson: Do everything you can to keep the ball.
    This feels like something that the Steelers should be able to capitalize on.

    I think teams don't implement strategies like this because coaches are always on the "hot seat" and are super afraid to do things that will get them fired.

    I think that going on 4th increases your win percentage, but also increases your "going to get fired" percentage because the loss is on the coach when you lose.

    But with our organization's history of valuing stability, I would hope that our guys would take advantage of this while other teams are fearful.

    OTOH, you only get 16 games in the regular season and 4 (at most) in the playoffs. It may be that a high variance / high risk strategy like this wouldn't work as well in Football as something like Hockey or Baseball where the seasons are significantly longer.

  3. #3
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    If I were a coach, the moment I was on the plus side of the 50, it would be 4 down territory provided its less than 10 yards and Ben is still playing. The Steeler offense is better than the Steeler punt unit.

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  4. #4
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    Interesting, but I am old school. I believe in go for it on 4th down if it is situational football (end of half, down big time). But in most part I believe in punting and flipping the field to set up our offense to score again.

    I think that that is why dinking and dunking with a strong run game rules all ( not run run and cloud of dust O, but something like how NE operates, but still have big game changing striking potential) It keeps time of possession and lets defense to rest. frustrates the other teams O because they have limited plays.
    “I’m so tired of Le’Veon," DeCastro told reporters (h/t ESPN's Jeremy Fowler ([url]https://twitter.com/JFowlerESPN/status/1038909446146203649[/url])) after Sunday's game. "I’m so tired of it. Let’s just worry about the guys in here. I know you guys have stories to write and what not. I love Le’Veon, but we gotta worry about the guys in here. They’re the only people that matter to me."



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