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Thread: Hey Tomlin/Colber take note...playoff week 1 it's still defense that wins

  1. #61
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    trying to count byes as a playoff win is literally the dumbest thing I have ever seen posted here

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Spaghetti View Post
    trying to count byes as a playoff win is literally the dumbest thing I have ever seen posted here
    Their really reaching in trying to make Tomlin look good in the post season. 3 wins in eight years of playoffs submarines all their arguments. Lol
    Last edited by Steel Maniac; 01-08-2019 at 10:11 AM.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    It seems that a couple of you guys can’t deal with the hard truth of Tomlin’s last eight year playoff record. So now your new trick is to try and soften it by saying the byes are a win??? Get out of here. The TBW are working overtime now!! Lol

    Tomlin is like a kid who gets the letter grade B’s on the homework ( regular season games) then gets an “F” on the actual test (playoffs).

    3 playoff wins in 8 years. Stop trying to make up stuff to soften it; with the teams we’ve had in those 8 years that’s underachievment. No way around it.
    So, here are a few questions I have about your 3 wins in 8 years.

    1) Why 8 years? Throwing out data is a good way to get worse answers in stats, so you generally need a good reason to do it (my preference would almost always be to take all the data available)
    a) Since this isn't all of Tomlin's tenure, I think there should be a reason for throwing out some of the data. It looks like the reason is that it doesn't support the conclusion you wanted to make before you started.
    b) If you're going to throw out data, why not throw out more data. Why is it 3 wins in 8 years (a little more than the 2.75 expected wins) instead of 3 wins in 4 years (about 2x the 1.38 expected wins)? Again, it looks like you have chosen your time frame to best fit the conclusion you had before you started looking at the data.

    2) Why wouldn't byes count as evaluating a coach's playoff performance? The goal of getting to the playoffs is to win the Superbowl. Teams with byes win SBs more than teams without byes. Clearly coaching a team to a first round bye is better than not coaching a team to a bye (or missing the playoffs). How is this benefit captured in your 3 wins in 8 years? It looks like you're intentionally ignoring it because it doesn't fit the conclusion you want to make. I think you're probably right that counting them as wins isn't the right way to go (at least without adding all byes as wins). Below, I've included 1st round byes as an additional criteria to evaluate Tomlin's playoff performance.

    3) What is your benchmark? Your stat alone doesn't really mean anything because you don't provide any way to compare it to what you'd expect. Someone could say Marie Curie "only" won 2 Nobel Prizes. But, saying that would be stupid because there are only 4 people that have won 2 Nobel prizes and no one has ever won 3.

    In that case, here is Tomlin's playoff performance vs. the benchmark of expected or "average" performance:
    - 1 SB win in 11 years. Expected number of SBs = 0.34. Tomlin has approximately 3x more SBs than expected.
    - 3 1st round byes in 11 years. Expected number of 1st round byes = 1.38. Tomlin has more than 2x more 1st round byes than expected.
    - 8 Playoff wins in 11 years. Expected number of playoff wins = 3.78. Tomlin has more than 2x more than the expected playoff wins.

    It seems like you interpret anyone who isn't solidly "fire Tomlin" as a "Tomlin ball washer". These stats don't mean that he's perfect. But, it does mean that he's done far better than the expected playoff performance. Surely this is in part due to having a very good QB. But, I've put numbers up about his playoff performance vs. other teams with franchise QBs. I believe the only ones that did better were the Pats (best dynasty ever) and Seahawks (all data from QB on a rookie contract). I'd say that's pretty good.

    If you want to propose a different benchmark (or different benchmarks), I'd love to see them. But, I think that your 3 playoff wins in 8 years is intellectually dishonest and intentionally misleading. Doing that is great if your goal is to preach to the choir. But if you want to find the truth or convince people that don't agree with you, I think steel manning the opposite side of the argument will probably get you further.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 01-08-2019 at 11:25 AM.

  4. #64
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    Northern, I appreciate your long post.

    I'm not trying to cause another endless Tomlin/Cowher debate. So let's not go there. But the reason that I used 8 years is any longer then your referring to teams that are made up of a lot of Cowher's players/coaches.

    The last 8 years is when he moved away from those players/coaches. I'm not going to debate the Cowher thing again; that's a dead horse. My opinion is that once he moved away from Cowher's players/coaches he got worse and the playoff wins (or lack there of) prove that IMO. And there isn't a thing you can say to dispel that in my mind.

    As far as your benchmarks are concerned, how you came up with the averages is suspect. I'm going to keep it real simple for everyone here; this isn't rocket science: Think about the teams we've had for the last 8 years; and the opportunities given (especially with the super easy schedule we had in 2017 when we went 13-3) ..Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games.

    You can't explain it away; you can't soften it by trying to use bye weeks as wins (most ridiculous thing I've ever heard) the guy once he moved away from Cowhers players/coaches he's been an absolute failure in the playoffs.

    Where we are at right now is assistant coaches are being given the boot around Tomlin. Last year, Haley was given the boot and the blame for us giving up 45 points to the Jags.

    I see the progression; Just like they did Mike McCarthy last year when they fired a lot of his coaches and gave him new people all around him as well. Where is McCarthy one year later? Unemployed. So I'm just being patient and I'm perfectly willing to go thru another bust season before management finally comes to the same realization that the Packers organization came to about McCarthy. That's where we are at right now.

    **But make no mistake about it: We will not win another Super Bowl with Mike Tomlin as our head coach. Please note that I said that. Book it.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    Their really reaching in trying to make Tomlin look good in the post season. 3 wins in eight years of playoffs submarines all their arguments. Lol
    If this is the case, can it not be said that the Steelers, given the fact they will have the next 4 weeks on bye, are the World Champions?



    brothervad

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by brothervad View Post
    If this is the case, can it not be said that the Steelers, given the fact they will have the next 4 weeks on bye, are the World Champions?



    brothervad
    Hahahaha..you guys are killing me with these jokes. I"m glad some of us are taking our early exit with smiles and laughs. Because it's going to get bumpy starting with the resolution of this AB situation.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    Northern, I appreciate your long post.

    I'm not trying to cause another endless Tomlin/Cowher debate. So let's not go there. But the reason that I used 8 years is any longer then your referring to teams that are made up of a lot of Cowher's players/coaches.

    The last 8 years is when he moved away from those players/coaches. I'm not going to debate the Cowher thing again; that's a dead horse. My opinion is that once he moved away from Cowher's players/coaches he got worse and the playoff wins (or lack there of) prove that IMO. And there isn't a thing you can say to dispel that in my mind.

    As far as your benchmarks are concerned, how you came up with the averages is suspect. I'm going to keep it real simple for everyone here; this isn't rocket science: Think about the teams we've had for the last 8 years; and the opportunities given (especially with the super easy schedule we had in 2017 when we went 13-3) ..Tomlin has only won 3 playoff games.

    You can't explain it away; you can't soften it by trying to use bye weeks as wins (most ridiculous thing I've ever heard) the guy once he moved away from Cowhers players/coaches he's been an absolute failure in the playoffs.

    Where we are at right now is assistant coaches are being given the boot around Tomlin. Last year, Haley was given the boot and the blame for us giving up 45 points to the Jags.

    I see the progression; Just like they did Mike McCarthy last year when they fired a lot of his coaches and gave him new people all around him as well. Where is McCarthy one year later? Unemployed. So I'm just being patient and I'm perfectly willing to go thru another bust season before management finally comes to the same realization that the Packers organization came to about McCarthy. That's where we are at right now.

    **But make no mistake about it: We will not win another Super Bowl with Mike Tomlin as our head coach. Please note that I said that. Book it.
    (1) Both recent SB teams are with Colbert constructing the roster. If Cowher's players were so great why 8-8 and missing playoffs after the SB?

    (2) how are my benchmarks suspect? If you don't like the benchmarks I've proposed here (average or expected performance) or shown elsewhere (vs other teams with franchise QBs), please provide one of your own. If you think the math is too hard, just say it in words. Then we can try to figure out a way to calculate it. To prove something, we need more than a gut feeling that it's right (something we probably both don't like about Tomlin).

    Having a benchmark will let us compare against something so we can objectively say if its good or bad.

    (3) I agree with your criticism that counting byes as wins wasn't a good idea. It's better to have it as a separate benchmark (which I did in my last post). That was me listening to critism. I think it made my argument better.

    I'd love it it you had more specific critism like this. It's how ideas evolve. Maybe I'll end up changing my mind if we work together here (instead of having hand wavy objections or non specific feedback).

    (4) I agree that this year hurts Tomlin and gets him closer to being fired. I don't think he's some perfect coaching God. But I also don't think changing the HC reduces our turnovers on O (will probably regress to the mean with or without coaching change) or fix our kicker (psych issue). Maybe a D scheme change gets us more ints. I'd suggest covering WRs with CBs would be the default instead of using LBs. I think Butler did a great job improving sacks (and it's been repeatable) but I think the LB coverage thing means he should lose his position.

    I thunk the position coaching changes are mostly meaningless. Even if Munchak goes, I thunk we'll be OK because it's mostly a vet group and 5hey won't forget how to block.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 01-08-2019 at 02:50 PM.

  8. #68
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    I'm listening to Maniac and Northern. Good points on both sides. Tomlin's entire body of work suggests he is far better than the average coach. However if we do trending analysis things don't look as good.
    I suppose it comes down to whether you believe Tomlin had control over everything that has happened recently to cause the missed opportunities.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    I'm listening to Maniac and Northern. Good points on both sides. Tomlin's entire body of work suggests he is far better than the average coach. However if we do trending analysis things don't look as good.
    I suppose it comes down to whether you believe Tomlin had control over everything that has happened recently to cause the missed opportunities.
    I think this makes sense and I'm not in favor of having Tomlin forever.

    I think if we miss the playoffs again next year, then we have wholesale changes.

    I think that we're all ultimately worried about squandering Ben's last few years. I believe that changing the whole coaching staff with 1 or 2 years of Ben's career remaining is likely to cause more harm than good. But I also think that sports is at least half luck, so who knows.

    I also tend not to believe the "trending down" argument because I think last year was a successful year (with an easier schedule) marred by a catastrophic injury that happened after the trade deadline (so little could be done to mitigate the impact mid-season). I also think we tried so hard to construct a team that could deal with the Pats all-pass-all-the-time offense, that we couldn't stop the Jags strong running game after spotting them a multi possession lead after the turnovers.

    This year was pretty much a cluster-**** where everything that could go wrong did go wrong. And we barely missed the playoffs (with a harder strength of schedule). But if we were in the playoffs, it's hard to image that we'd play four games in a row against good teams without having one with a -4 turnover ratio or a few brain farts on D (probably late in the 4th Q).

    I think Tomlin deserves another chance. But, I wouldn't be broken hearted if he didn't get one. It's not that I love Tomlin. It's that I don't think bringing in a new coach fixes the turnover ratio or the kicker's psyche. I think that both of these things will revert to the mean next year (fewer fumbles and a new kicker) regardless of who coaches the team. And Tomlin's record (in and out of the playoffs) suggests that he's good enough at the things HC's are supposed to do. Most HCs show they are not good at getting results, so I think I'd rather stay with the devil we know.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 01-08-2019 at 02:40 PM.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    **But make no mistake about it: We will not win another Super Bowl with Mike Tomlin as our head coach. Please note that I said that. Book it.
    This is always the safest bet. Taking the field to win the SB isn't a bold call.

    I asked this before, but I don't think you answered: Why don't you apply the same logic to Ben?

    I tend to think that player execution matters more than coaching in outcomes. What makes you think that Ben can have 4 games against the best teams in the league and not have a game where we have a critical turnover (or three)?

    How do you disentangle the performance of the QB from the coach? And do you believe that the QB play is more important than HC decisions during the game?

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