Page 8 of 12 FirstFirst ... 678910 ... LastLast
Results 71 to 80 of 118

Thread: Hey Tomlin/Colber take note...playoff week 1 it's still defense that wins

  1. #71
    Backup

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    I also think we tried so hard to construct a team that could deal with the Pats all-pass-all-the-time offense, that we couldn't stop the Jags strong running game after spotting them a multi possession lead after the turnovers.
    If you recall, the Pats "all-pass-all-the-time" offense started with the 2002 season opener (Pats vs. Steelers). I think there was a stretch during that game where Brady threw 19 straight passes.

    And in the Steelers following game, against Oakland, I think Gannon threw 20+ straight passes at one point.

    This was due to the fact that the Steelers in those days were built to stop the run (and this was before Bill Polian changed the pass coverage rules to favor Peyton Manning, forcing every team to adjust to a more passing-centered league).

    To his credit, Bill Cowher was able to overcome that slow start, and got the Steelers to the playoffs. And even with the tweaking of the defense to play differently against the pass-oriented teams, the Steelers still finished as the #1 defense in the league against the run that year.

  2. #72
    Hall of Famer

    User Info Menu

    You ask, " If Cowher's players were so good, Why'd they go 8-8 after the Super Bowl?"
    You do know a lot of teams don't go back to back or sometimes don't even make the playoffs afterwards right?

    As far as me "taking the field", dude it's been 8 years; if he was a good coach, you would think the odds would be in his favor after 8 years. Instead, you find the team disintegrating around him.

    Player execution has to be there; but if the wrong play is called against the wrong defense on a particular play, it won't matter how you execute it, it won't get the desired effect. It's a marriage; Good coaching and player execution equals success. But without the good coaching, it's not working. And vice versa.

    You can't get away from Tomlin not being a good coach. You can't. Players don't respect him. That's been shown to you by Blount, Brown and to a small degree Bell. Harrison told you a year ago that Tomlin doesn't run a tight enough ship; what happens a year later? Brown just disappears; rants and raves all he wants and clowns Tomlin on social media. Joey Porter having the team fight in the locker room with the offense vs. the defense.

    But Harrison told you this a year ago after the Jags loss.

    You can't get around the 3 playoff wins in the last 8 years; and you can't get around that Harrison told you about this lack of discipline a year before and it's manifested itself as such...with lack of respect from the players (Brown) and coaches (Porter) for Tomlin.

    We've got a serious "head in the sand" ideology around here. It's time to face the facts on Tomlin.

  3. #73
    Pro Bowler

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    You ask, " If Cowher's players were so good, Why'd they go 8-8 after the Super Bowl?"
    You do know a lot of teams don't go back to back or sometimes don't even make the playoffs afterwards right?

    As far as me "taking the field", dude it's been 8 years; if he was a good coach, you would think the odds would be in his favor after 8 years. Instead, you find the team disintegrating around him.

    Player execution has to be there; but if the wrong play is called against the wrong defense on a particular play, it won't matter how you execute it, it won't get the desired effect. It's a marriage; Good coaching and player execution equals success. But without the good coaching, it's not working. And vice versa.

    You can't get away from Tomlin not being a good coach. You can't. Players don't respect him. That's been shown to you by Blount, Brown and to a small degree Bell. Harrison told you a year ago that Tomlin doesn't run a tight enough ship; what happens a year later? Brown just disappears; rants and raves all he wants and clowns Tomlin on social media. Joey Porter having the team fight in the locker room with the offense vs. the defense.

    But Harrison told you this a year ago after the Jags loss.

    You can't get around the 3 playoff wins in the last 8 years; and you can't get around that Harrison told you about this lack of discipline a year before and it's manifested itself as such...with lack of respect from the players (Brown) and coaches (Porter) for Tomlin.

    We've got a serious "head in the sand" ideology around here. It's time to face the facts on Tomlin.
    But why don't you say the exact same things about Ben (who's execution is the most important thing for our team's success)?

    I think it's still the norm for SB winning teams to go to the playoffs the next year. But, Ben's teams missed twice under 2 different HCs. An analysis like the one you do on Tomlin might also point out that Ben's failure to get to the playoffs after SBs could be related to teams that Ben QB'ed have consistently played down to teams that are viewed as inferior.

    Ben's playoff record in the last 8 years is the same as Tomlin's.

    Players like Ward told us Ben wasn't a good leader over a decade ago. Brown seems like he'd agree this year. Haley would have said the same thing, I think. Why do you believe one disgruntled ex-employee (Harrison) but not another (Haley), or a potentially soon to be ex-employee (Brown)? Personally, I don't believe any of them (or the talking heads).

    I don't think these are legit arguments, but they seem to be similar to the ones you use against Tomlin just directed at Ben (who I think you agree is significantly more important than the HC).

    Anyway, I think it's interesting that you call out other posters for not answering the specific questions you ask them...but you just hand wave at everything I've asked you here.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 01-08-2019 at 04:41 PM.

  4. #74
    Pro Bowler

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by tiproast View Post
    If you recall, the Pats "all-pass-all-the-time" offense started with the 2002 season opener (Pats vs. Steelers). I think there was a stretch during that game where Brady threw 19 straight passes.

    And in the Steelers following game, against Oakland, I think Gannon threw 20+ straight passes at one point.

    This was due to the fact that the Steelers in those days were built to stop the run (and this was before Bill Polian changed the pass coverage rules to favor Peyton Manning, forcing every team to adjust to a more passing-centered league).

    To his credit, Bill Cowher was able to overcome that slow start, and got the Steelers to the playoffs. And even with the tweaking of the defense to play differently against the pass-oriented teams, the Steelers still finished as the #1 defense in the league against the run that year.
    I remember those losses. And I think the Pats have been in the heads of Steelers fans (and coaches) ever since.

  5. #75
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    On the subject of playcalling, while I have no evidence, I have to believe that Roethlisberger is at a point in his career that he has complete freedom on the offensive playcalling. If he doesn't like something, he can call a time out, call an audible, whatever. An observation from this season; I don't recall a single time that Roethlisberger threw his OC under the bus for a play call. That's not the case in Haley's last season, where he was heard to say in pressers 'I don't know, ask coach'....

  6. #76
    Hall of Famer

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    But why don't you say the exact same things about Ben (who's execution is the most important thing for our team's success)?

    I think it's still the norm for SB winning teams to go to the playoffs the next year. But, Ben's teams missed twice under 2 different HCs. An analysis like the one you do on Tomlin might also point out that Ben's failure to get to the playoffs after SBs could be related to teams that Ben QB'ed have consistently played down to teams that are viewed as inferior.

    Ben's playoff record in the last 8 years is the same as Tomlin's.

    Players like Ward told us Ben wasn't a good leader over a decade ago. Brown seems like he'd agree this year. Haley would have said the same thing, I think. Why do you believe one disgruntled ex-employee (Harrison) but not another (Haley), or a potentially soon to be ex-employee (Brown)? Personally, I don't believe any of them (or the talking heads).

    I don't think these are legit arguments, but they seem to be similar to the ones you use against Tomlin just directed at Ben (who I think you agree is significantly more important than the HC).

    Anyway, I think it's interesting that you call out other posters for not answering the specific questions you ask them...but you just hand wave at everything I've asked you here.
    Northern, are seriously blaming Ben for the last 8 years? I mean I could post a pleathera of examples of how that’s false but at this point I think your just grasping at any and everything to deflect from Tomlin. Lol. This is pretty sad.

  7. #77
    Pro Bowler

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    Northern, are seriously blaming Ben for the last 8 years? I mean I could post a pleathera of examples of how that’s false but at this point I think your just grasping at any and everything to deflect from Tomlin. Lol. This is pretty sad.
    I specifically said that I don't blame Ben and that I do not believe the arguments in my post above.

    But someone who decided beforehand that they were going to blame Ben could use all the arguments you use against Tomlin to attack Ben. Specifically, the recent playoff record you say is bad for both Ben and Tomlin. Especially if you agree with me that the QB is more important than the HC.

    Do you agree with me that the QB is more important than the HC for team success?

    And the odds of Ben winning another SB have to be lower than Tomlin winning another one because (1) the most likely outcome is that Tomlin is Ben's coach until he retires and (2) Tomlin can be a HC in the NFL (here or elsewhere) for a lot longer than Ben can be a QB.
    Last edited by Northern_Blitz; 01-08-2019 at 08:14 PM.

  8. #78
    Hall of Famer

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    I specifically said that I don't blame Ben.

    But all the arguments you use against Tomlin could also be leveled against Ben.

    I don't understand how you can be consistent and not blame Ben.
    no I can’t use the same arguments; ones a player and the other is the coach. Please stop. This isn’t even entertaining. Your making up insane scenarios to try and explain away Tomlin’s shortcomings. This isn’t even debatable.

  9. #79
    Legend

    User Info Menu

    The Tomlin/Roethlisberger argument is as old as the Belichick/Brady argument. Only difference is Belichick>Tomlin, and Brady>Roethlisberger....

    who is successful because of whom.........????

  10. #80
    Pro Bowler

    User Info Menu

    Quote Originally Posted by Northern_Blitz View Post
    So, here are a few questions I have about your 3 wins in 8 years.

    1) Why 8 years? Throwing out data is a good way to get worse answers in stats, so you generally need a good reason to do it (my preference would almost always be to take all the data available)
    a) Since this isn't all of Tomlin's tenure, I think there should be a reason for throwing out some of the data. It looks like the reason is that it doesn't support the conclusion you wanted to make before you started.
    b) If you're going to throw out data, why not throw out more data. Why is it 3 wins in 8 years (a little more than the 2.75 expected wins) instead of 3 wins in 4 years (about 2x the 1.38 expected wins)? Again, it looks like you have chosen your time frame to best fit the conclusion you had before you started looking at the data.

    2) Why wouldn't byes count as evaluating a coach's playoff performance? The goal of getting to the playoffs is to win the Superbowl. Teams with byes win SBs more than teams without byes. Clearly coaching a team to a first round bye is better than not coaching a team to a bye (or missing the playoffs). How is this benefit captured in your 3 wins in 8 years? It looks like you're intentionally ignoring it because it doesn't fit the conclusion you want to make. I think you're probably right that counting them as wins isn't the right way to go (at least without adding all byes as wins). Below, I've included 1st round byes as an additional criteria to evaluate Tomlin's playoff performance.

    3) What is your benchmark? Your stat alone doesn't really mean anything because you don't provide any way to compare it to what you'd expect. Someone could say Marie Curie "only" won 2 Nobel Prizes. But, saying that would be stupid because there are only 4 people that have won 2 Nobel prizes and no one has ever won 3.

    In that case, here is Tomlin's playoff performance vs. the benchmark of expected or "average" performance:
    - 1 SB win in 11 years. Expected number of SBs = 0.34. Tomlin has approximately 3x more SBs than expected.
    - 3 1st round byes in 11 years. Expected number of 1st round byes = 1.38. Tomlin has more than 2x more 1st round byes than expected.
    - 8 Playoff wins in 11 years. Expected number of playoff wins = 3.78. Tomlin has more than 2x more than the expected playoff wins.

    It seems like you interpret anyone who isn't solidly "fire Tomlin" as a "Tomlin ball washer". These stats don't mean that he's perfect. But, it does mean that he's done far better than the expected playoff performance. Surely this is in part due to having a very good QB. But, I've put numbers up about his playoff performance vs. other teams with franchise QBs. I believe the only ones that did better were the Pats (best dynasty ever) and Seahawks (all data from QB on a rookie contract). I'd say that's pretty good.

    If you want to propose a different benchmark (or different benchmarks), I'd love to see them. But, I think that your 3 playoff wins in 8 years is intellectually dishonest and intentionally misleading. Doing that is great if your goal is to preach to the choir. But if you want to find the truth or convince people that don't agree with you, I think steel manning the opposite side of the argument will probably get you further.
    This is an excellent post and I agree that a first round bye should get some credit, why does a coach get credit for a wild card win and a coach get no credit for a first round bye.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •