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Thread: why the window is closing...

  1. #1
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    why the window is closing...

    I am going to be a bit of a pessimist here...

    Regardless of the rhetoric, the window is closing. Perhaps there can be some tweaks but some things of concern

    "The theory of 150" - this states that an oline begins to fall apart if the collective age is 150 or greater. If the oline starting lineup is Pouncey, DeCastro, Foster, Gilbert, Villanueva next year that will be 154. Replacing Gilbert with Feiler still makes it 150 (27 vs 31).

    This leads to the next concern Ben was uncharacteristically upright since 2016 (last time he missed a game was in October of 2016). Sports Injury predictor had Ben at 38% chance of injury in 2018. That suggests (stats-wise) that 2019 is a chance he will miss some time. Given that above theory, his age, and potentially the loss of Munchak a huge concern.

    I know that the Shazier injury was devastating in 2017, but honestly if it weren't for a lack of depth in that specific area, one could make the point that the Steelers have been extremely lucky over the last 2 seasons on the injury front.

    That will not last. AB has missed very little time if any, JuJu has been healthy, our O-Line was 80% healthy and frankly Feiler is starter worthy. Law of averages will suggest this won't last. The depth at WR is not there. I don't want to write off James Washington yet...but he isn't the game breatker that some had hoped.

    The D - where to start? They need to get quality. I know this flies in the face of draft-niks...but I would rather they moved up and traded some lower round picks and fill needs for once.

    Frankly they have pisses away so many lower round picks on crappy secondary choices that they were wasted anyway. It's time to get a shutdown corner, a game changing ILB and spend some fricken money on first tier free agents. You don't need to gut the future but you do need to realize Ben is likely to hang it up in 2020 ( I don't see him signing another deal at 37/38 - maybe he decides to play until 40 but do you really want to rely on that?)

    Finally, the window is closing because whether you want to admit it to yourself...the AFCN is no longer going to provide 4 -5 wins year-in/year out for the Steelers. The Browns are improving and they have finally started to draft smartly. I think Mayfield is the real deal, I think Lamar Jackson will only get better from here.

    Perhaps the only automatic is the Bengals - and frankly unless the Steelers mindset on gameday changes, they won't even be auto wins.

    I am not saying the Steelers won't be a viable force next year, but I think the front office needs to start realizing there isn't much time left and if this team truly is as talented as they think they are...they have 1-2 more seasons - 3 tops of making it with the existing team to make it to the Super Bowl.

    brothervad

  2. #2
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    I think the O-Line can be fairly solid with Finney, Chucks, Feiler, Decastro, Hawkins, AV, etc... they will need to bring in a few guys to plug some holes in terms of depth. The biggest red flag I see with the O-Line is Munchak leaving.

    In terms of Defense... you are correct in that they need to sign some top tier talent via Free Agency. We've proven we cannot get CB's in the draft.
    Other than that... I think a lot of it (the inevitable decline) hinges on our next 2 drafts.. and the development of Mason Rudolph.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by brothervad View Post
    I am going to be a bit of a pessimist here...

    Regardless of the rhetoric, the window is closing. Perhaps there can be some tweaks but some things of concern

    "The theory of 150" - this states that an oline begins to fall apart if the collective age is 150 or greater. If the oline starting lineup is Pouncey, DeCastro, Foster, Gilbert, Villanueva next year that will be 154. Replacing Gilbert with Feiler still makes it 150 (27 vs 31).

    This leads to the next concern Ben was uncharacteristically upright since 2016 (last time he missed a game was in October of 2016). Sports Injury predictor had Ben at 38% chance of injury in 2018. That suggests (stats-wise) that 2019 is a chance he will miss some time. Given that above theory, his age, and potentially the loss of Munchak a huge concern.

    I know that the Shazier injury was devastating in 2017, but honestly if it weren't for a lack of depth in that specific area, one could make the point that the Steelers have been extremely lucky over the last 2 seasons on the injury front.

    That will not last. AB has missed very little time if any, JuJu has been healthy, our O-Line was 80% healthy and frankly Feiler is starter worthy. Law of averages will suggest this won't last. The depth at WR is not there. I don't want to write off James Washington yet...but he isn't the game breatker that some had hoped.

    The D - where to start? They need to get quality. I know this flies in the face of draft-niks...but I would rather they moved up and traded some lower round picks and fill needs for once.

    Frankly they have pisses away so many lower round picks on crappy secondary choices that they were wasted anyway. It's time to get a shutdown corner, a game changing ILB and spend some fricken money on first tier free agents. You don't need to gut the future but you do need to realize Ben is likely to hang it up in 2020 ( I don't see him signing another deal at 37/38 - maybe he decides to play until 40 but do you really want to rely on that?)

    Finally, the window is closing because whether you want to admit it to yourself...the AFCN is no longer going to provide 4 -5 wins year-in/year out for the Steelers. The Browns are improving and they have finally started to draft smartly. I think Mayfield is the real deal, I think Lamar Jackson will only get better from here.

    Perhaps the only automatic is the Bengals - and frankly unless the Steelers mindset on gameday changes, they won't even be auto wins.

    I am not saying the Steelers won't be a viable force next year, but I think the front office needs to start realizing there isn't much time left and if this team truly is as talented as they think they are...they have 1-2 more seasons - 3 tops of making it with the existing team to make it to the Super Bowl.

    brothervad
    Where did you get the "theory of 150" and injury predictor logic? I can honestly say that I haven't heard of that but it's very interesting.
    Tomlin: Let's unleash hell and "mop the floor" with the competition.

  4. #4
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    John Clayton relayed this theory

    https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ffensive-lines

    He revisited it in this article in 2012

    http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/8...oo-long-o-line
    Last edited by brothervad; 12-31-2018 at 03:52 PM.

  5. #5
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    this team is done. too many up and coming teams to compete with the next couple years.
    we are an have been headed in the wrong direction for quite some time now. years ago it was just attitude. now it is attitude and age. factor in we havent been injured either. that will mostly likely change.
    the 6 afc playoff teams are better than us(not all talent wise tho) add us in being equal to the browns and titans. throw in the 3-4 nfc teams we cant hang with if we did make the super bowl

  6. #6
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    Honestly with the cap space and hopefully having a more balanced run/pass game next year with Ben we always have a chance.
    This is the year we need to make a defensive splash in free agency and/or draft a stud by trading up
    I wish people would/could leave politics out of a Steelers Football Forum.

  7. #7
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    This whole thing is disgusting! This team and organization is a total embarrassment right now and it all started with the handling of the LB debacle. And we should at least concede that LB won this round, because no doubt, we would be in the playoffs with a healthy LB for 16 games. Shut-up! You know it's true.. I was chuckling at the loser players watching the scoreboard yesterday. I'm like, if you really cared as much you would have NEVER lost to the raiders, broncos, or gave up a 16 point lead at home to the chargers. Game-set-match!

    This team lacks leadership and discipline on every level! Tomlin and Ben are a bad marriage and one of them needs to go! I'm not afraid of change. It's working just fine for the ravens. IMO Ben is a bad teammate and leader. His inconsistency, lack of leadership and bad turnovers/pick 6's have permeated the character of the entire team. I fault Tomlin too because he showing the disposition of a coach begging to be put out of his misery! With all of the quality job openings out there coupled with the lack of quality candidates, who could blame him..

  8. #8
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    You lost me at "Loser players"....

    Okay... I'll admit I started to drift off when you mentioned L'Bell.... but I really lost interest when you called our guys losers.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ernie View Post
    You lost me at "Loser players"....

    Okay... I'll admit I started to drift off when you mentioned L'Bell.... but I really lost interest when you called our guys losers.
    This team had total control of their destiny, all they had to do was stay focused and drive straight.. They have as much or more talent than any team in the league, going up against loser teams (Oak-Den) and still found a way to screw it up.. If this is what you call a success story then I would hate to see your failures.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by williar View Post
    This team had total control of their destiny, all they had to do was stay focused and drive straight.. They have as much or more talent than any team in the league, going up against loser teams (Oak-Den) and still found a way to screw it up.. If this is what you call a success story then I would hate to see your failures.
    Oh im not saying I disagree with your overall analysis... in fact, if you read anything I've posted the last few days.. I think you'll find there are more similarities in our thought processes...than there are differences.

    I just thought calling our guys "Losers" was a pretty classless thing to say...

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