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Thread: Steelers Poor Drafts Hurt Team

  1. #1
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    Steelers Poor Drafts Hurt Team

    Nice analysis over at BTSC on Steelers recent drafts being the cause of their current undoing. According to profootballreference's metrics on the draft, about 30% of draft picks should result in 'solid contributors' (not stars). From 2013 to 2016 the Steelers had 18% of picks that fit that category.
    In addition, about 7% of picks should result in All-Pros. The Steelers had 1 (Tuitt) or just 3%. (although Shazier arguably would have been an All-Pro before his shortened career and Bell was a stud no longer in their plans).
    This remarkable string of futility is one reason the Steelers are in the current state they are in, not enough young stars.

    All is not lost however, as the article goes on to claim the 2017-2018 drafts have the potential to be one of the best in two decades, with Watt, Conner, JuJu, Washington, Edmunds, Samuel, Okafor as potential emerging stars.

    One other surprising tidbit to let sink in: 69% of draft picks across the NFL in the last 20 years produced no productive players meaning they never played in a game or contributed to any degree... 69%! For all the GMs, scouts, coaches, and other experts out there, you would expect that number to be much lower. How can so many be so wrong for so long?

    https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...umunds-tj-watt

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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    Nice analysis over at BTSC on Steelers recent drafts being the cause of their current undoing. According to profootballreference's metrics on the draft, about 30% of draft picks should result in 'solid contributors' (not stars). From 2013 to 2016 the Steelers had 18% of picks that fit that category.
    In addition, about 7% of picks should result in All-Pros. The Steelers had 1 (Tuitt) or just 3%. (although Shazier arguably would have been an All-Pro before his shortened career and Bell was a stud no longer in their plans).
    This remarkable string of futility is one reason the Steelers are in the current state they are in, not enough young stars.

    All is not lost however, as the article goes on to claim the 2017-2018 drafts have the potential to be one of the best in two decades, with Watt, Conner, JuJu, Washington, Edmunds, Samuel, Okafor as potential emerging stars.

    One other surprising tidbit to let sink in: 69% of draft picks across the NFL in the last 20 years produced no productive players meaning they never played in a game or contributed to any degree... 69%! For all the GMs, scouts, coaches, and other experts out there, you would expect that number to be much lower. How can so many be so wrong for so long?

    https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...umunds-tj-watt
    Thanks for posting this. Nice to see some numbers re: missed picks.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    How can so many be so wrong for so long?
    They spend too much time reading the fan message boards .

    Molon labe

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    :thumbs down:

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    3 years is a flash in the pan compared to decades of excellent drafting. Defensive back has been a problem that still hasnt been corrected, while some teams seem great at drafting and developing DBs its not like the steelers are just useless across the board. Teams would KILL to be able to draft and develop WRs and OL like the steelers do, something they seem to have written the book on.

    We are so spoiled ha...so used to having such strong contributors out of the first round, which is extremely important for the future state of your team but Artie Burns (who was a terrible pick at the time) and Jarvis Jones (who was a great pick at the time imo) did set the team back quite a bit when you layer in the loss of shazier and the underachieving of dupree, who i thought was much better this year.

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    It's difficult to determine the extent in which poor drafts hurt the organization at this point. The Steelers have been able to field very competitive teams. The Steelers made the playoffs 4 out of the last 5 years. They had the opportunity to make the playoffs this year.

    Having a few poor drafts may not hurt a team as badly as some think. Teams generally have a large majority roster turnover every 4 or 5 seasons. New talent is being drafted every year. The Steelers have a solid core of players in which they can continue to build around.

    We can point to a lot of reasons the team didn't make the playoffs. Poor drafts would be down near the bottom of the list.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by K Train View Post
    3 years is a flash in the pan compared to decades of excellent drafting. Defensive back has been a problem that still hasnt been corrected, while some teams seem great at drafting and developing DBs its not like the steelers are just useless across the board. Teams would KILL to be able to draft and develop WRs and OL like the steelers do, something they seem to have written the book on.

    We are so spoiled ha...so used to having such strong contributors out of the first round, which is extremely important for the future state of your team but Artie Burns (who was a terrible pick at the time) and Jarvis Jones (who was a great pick at the time imo) did set the team back quite a bit when you layer in the loss of shazier and the underachieving of dupree, who i thought was much better this year.
    We need to find the DB and pass rushing coaching equivalents of Mike Munchak. There's some players that are just going to have physical/mental limitations that are just poor picks, but then there's average players that can be great with the right coaching.

    We need coaches that can make chicken salad out of chicken sh!t if needed. It's always better to have talent, but sometimes you don't and you still have to make due.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by K Train View Post
    3 years is a flash in the pan compared to decades of excellent drafting. Defensive back has been a problem that still hasnt been corrected, while some teams seem great at drafting and developing DBs its not like the steelers are just useless across the board. Teams would KILL to be able to draft and develop WRs and OL like the steelers do, something they seem to have written the book on.

    We are so spoiled ha...so used to having such strong contributors out of the first round, which is extremely important for the future state of your team but Artie Burns (who was a terrible pick at the time) and Jarvis Jones (who was a great pick at the time imo) did set the team back quite a bit when you layer in the loss of shazier and the underachieving of dupree, who i thought was much better this year.
    Hey K, I don't know if I'd say were "spoiled" per say; But we have higher expectations then most for sure based on what we've achieved in the past. So in your opinion, is that a wrong thing?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Steel Maniac View Post
    Hey K, I don't know if I'd say were "spoiled" per say; But we have higher expectations then most for sure based on what we've achieved in the past. So in your opinion, is that a wrong thing?
    Not wrong or bad, just true. Look at the teams that have been truly bad over the last decade, not the ones you can poke holes in and find leaks the ones that are bottom dwellers and how they 1) cant draft because they dont have a single draft pick from multiple previous drafts on their roster anymore and 2) cant retain the talent that they do draft well and end up with massive cap space and have to overspend on FAs that end up sucking

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by K Train View Post
    Not wrong or bad, just true. Look at the teams that have been truly bad over the last decade, not the ones you can poke holes in and find leaks the ones that are bottom dwellers and how they 1) cant draft because they dont have a single draft pick from multiple previous drafts on their roster anymore and 2) cant retain the talent that they do draft well and end up with massive cap space and have to overspend on FAs that end up sucking
    OKay, i see your point.

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