FA ramblings and thoughts

[RuthlessBurgher]

IM with you with the exception of JJ. Brown was a mid round pick who had a mere 16 catches as a rookie and he is the he best in the league now. JJ is an unknown at this point.

I'm not counting out James by any means. From what I've seen so far, the kid has promise and was an excellent value where we got him in the draft. But I think going into year two, I consider him to be a borderline TE2-TE3, and it sounds like if we don't make a TE splash in the draft or free agency this offseason, he'll be counted on to be a borderline TE1-TE2 instead. Right now, I see him as a Jerame Tuman type. I think he could possibly progress to be Scott Chandler type, but I don't ever see him becoming the next Heath Miller (which is why I'm advocating drafting the guy who reminds me most of Heath coming out that I've seen in several years).

[RuthlessBurgher]

The Free Agent Hot 100
Posted by Zac Jackson on February 23, 2016, 9:46 AM EST


The following are PFT’s top 100 free agents for the 2016 league year. The rankings include prospective unrestricted free agents, as well as released players. The list will be updated as events warrant, with signings and re-signings denoted when announced and/or reported. Players expected to opt out of their current contracts or expected to be released won’t be added until the transaction is official.


1. Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller
2. Jets defensive tackle Muhammad Wilkerson
3. Panthers cornerback Josh Norman
4. Broncos defensive tackle Malik Jackson
5. Bills left tackle Cordy Glenn
6. Dolphins defensive end Olivier Vernon
7. Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery
8. Chiefs safety Eric Berry
9. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins
10. Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford
11. Seahawks outside linebacker Bruce Irvin
12. Jets defensive tackle Damon Harrison
13. Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson
14. Chiefs cornerback Sean Smith
15. Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler
16. Chargers safety Eric Weddle
17. Bengals right tackle Andre Smith
18. Browns right tackle Mitchell Schwartz
19. Chiefs defensive tackle Jaye Howard
20. Giants defensive end Jason-Pierre Paul
21. Broncos linebacker Danny Trevathan
22. Buccaneers running back Doug Martin
23. Ravens guard Kelechi Osemele
24. Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick
25. Bengals safety George Iloka
26. Dolphins running back Lamar Miller
27. 49ers nose tackle Ian Williams
28. Rams cornerback Janoris Jenkins
29. 49ers guard Alex Boone
30. Chiefs outside linebacker Tamba Hali
31. Bengals safety Reggie Nelson
32. Ravens outside linebacker Courtney Upshaw
33. Steelers left tackle Kelvin Beachum
34. Browns wide receiver Travis Benjamin
35. Giants defensive end Robert Ayers
36. Bengals wide receiver Mohamed Sanu
37. Bengals wide receiver Marvin Jones
38. Lions defensive tackle Tyrunn Walker
39. Texans guard Brandon Brooks
40. Ex-Bears running back Matt Forte
41. Bills guard Richie Incognito
42. Seahawks left tackle Russell Okung
43. Rams defensive tackle Nick Fairley
44. Giants cornerback Prince Amukamara
45. Packers cornerback Casey Hayward
46. Rams linebacker/safety Mark Barron
47. Chargers cornerback Patrick Robinson
48. Chiefs quarterback Chase Daniel
49. Ravens kicker Justin Tucker
50. Texans offensive lineman Ben Jones
51. Chiefs guard Jeff Allen
52. Lions defensive tackle Haloti Ngata
53. Broncos guard Evan Mathis
54. Raiders left tackle Donald Penn
55. Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson
56. Dolphins wide receiver Rishard Matthews
57. Redskins running back Alfred Morris
58. Jets running back Chris Ivory
59. Bengals cornerback Adam Jones
60. Colts tight end Coby Fleener
61. Lions linebacker Tahir Whitehead
62. Browns safety Tashaun Gipson
63. Packers linebacker Mike Neal
64. Redskins defensive tackle Terrence Knighton
65. Ex-Rams linebacker James Laurinaitis
66. Cardinals offensive tackle Bobby Massie
67. Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy
68. Rams defensive tackle Eugene Sims
69. Seahawks wide receiver Jermaine Kearse
70. Cardinals running back Chris Johnson
71. Eagles safety Walter Thurmond
72. Packers linebacker Nick Perry
73. Raiders outside linebacker Aldon Smith
74. Seahawks guard J.R. Sweezy
75. Cardinals cornerback Jerraud Powers
76. Lions safety Isa Abdul-Quddus
77. Ex-Rams defensive end Chris Long
78. Seahawks defensive tackle Ahtyba Rubin
79. Cardinals safety Rashad Johnson
80. Chargers tight end Ladarius Green
81. Eagles defensive tackle Cedric Thornton
82. Vikings defensive tackle Kenrick Ellis
83. Bengals defensive end Wallace Gilberry
84. Colts tight end Dwayne Allen
85. Redskins linebacker Keenan Robinson
86. Cowboys linebacker Rolando McClain
87. Chiefs offensive tackle Donald Stephenson
88. Steelers linebacker Sean Spence
89. Cardinals quarterback Drew Stanton
90. Bears linebacker Shea McClellin
91. Cardinals pass rusher Dwight Freeney
92. Packers nose tackle B.J. Raji
93. Ex-Rams tight end Jared Cook
94. Colts cornerback Greg Toler
95. Ex-Lions running back Joique Bell
96. 49ers wide receiver Anquan Boldin
97. Buccaneers defensive tackle Henry Melton
98. Broncos cornerback Omar Bolden
99. Giants wide receiver Rueben Randle
100. Seahawks defensive tackle Brandon Mebane


[URL]http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/02/23/the-free-agent-hot-100-5/[/URL]

[papillon]

So, only two Steelers in the top 100 FAs, Spence and Beachum? Or did I miss some?

Pappy

[Northern_Blitz]

You mention DL, and this is a very strong DL draft, particularly at DT, so I wouldn't be shocked if an excellent DT happened to fall into our lap at #25 and was the pick, but the only safety who should go in the first round is Jalen Ramsey (and he'll undoubtedly come off the board in the top 10...I think he could even go top 5...but he may not even be a safety in the NFL...he may be a CB instead). I wouldn't be surprised at all if we took a safety in rounds 2, 3, or 4, but you shouldn't take a Darian Thompson, Vonn Bell, Jeremy Cash, Miles Killebrew, Karl Joseph, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Jayron Kearse, or Keanu Neal at #25.

I don't really know anything about College Football players and will trust your assessment here.

My main point is that we should go into the draft without glaring holes. Then we can pick up the player with the highest grade.

[Northern_Blitz]

Matt Spaeth has 55 career receptions in his 9 year NFL career. In the Haley era, Heath has topped Spaeth's career total for catches in every single season (71, 58, 66, 60).


Will Johnson has 31 career receptions in his 4 year NFL career. In Heath's least productive season (34 receptions in 2006), he had more catches than Johnson's entire 4 year career.


Jesse James had 8 receptions in his rookie season (9 if you count his 1 playoff catch vs. the Broncos). Heath had more catches in each of the regular season games against the Bengals this season (10 catches on 11/1/15 vs. Cincy and 10 more catches on 12/13/15 vs. Cincy).


None of these guys can come even remotely close to holding Heath's jock. You can't expect to replace an all time Steeler great with an aging limited veteran, a mid round pick, and an undrafted special teamer. We tried to do pretty much exactly the same thing at safety last year, and safety is still a mess that needs to be fixed as well. Trying to replace Heath Miller with Matt Spaeth, Jesse James, and Will Johnson is like trying to replace Troy Polamalu with Will Allen, Shamarko Thomas, and Robert Golden.

I think that the idea would be to replace Heath's production by committee. Bell will pick up more receptions that our RBs had this year. Coates will get more receptions next year. This will hopefully make up for losing Heath.

[steeler_george]

So, only two Steelers in the top 100 FAs, Spence and Beachum? Or did I miss some?

Pappy

That is what I see too. Sean Spencer that high? Really no love for Golden?

Hmm I guess him ( Golden) along with Foster and Gay could be had for cheap... not the 4 million i been hearing on other sites.

I also think the Ram's CBs are going to be resigned before FA starts, they saved 24 in cap cuts.

[feltdizz]

It's pretty foolish to point out the lack of receptions by other TE's while Heath was playing. Obviously if healthy, Heath would get most of the looks in our offense.

I think we will go into this season with a TE by committee and James will show he is capable of getting decent production.

[Keyplay1]

That is what I see too. Sean Spencer that high? Really no love for Golden?

Hmm I guess him ( Golden) along with Foster and Gay could be had for cheap... not the 4 million i been hearing on other sites.

I also think the Ram's CBs are going to be resigned before FA starts, they saved 24 in cap cuts.

Spencer? No, I'm not nitpicking but that reminded me of something. Actually There is a UFA OLB Spencer, [Anthony] out there but his heyday was years ago.

Anyway, last year many fans lobbied for a FA OLB signing. About the 3rd or 4th guy was Jabaal Sheard. He was not a bank breaker. But nothing happened and NE picked him up. He did better than well.

Hard to believe they will waste another year.

If Colbert has a weakness it might be his reluctance to let anyone go. In past years teams raided the Steelers FA's. Frequently it helped. The player was sometimes upgraded plus the comp picks. Now no one really looks.

[pittpete]

So, only two Steelers in the top 100 FAs, Spence and Beachum? Or did I miss some?

Pappy

They left Ramon Foster off

[RuthlessBurgher]

It's pretty foolish to point out the lack of receptions by other TE's while Heath was playing. Obviously if healthy, Heath would get most of the looks in our offense.

I think we will go into this season with a TE by committee and James will show he is capable of getting decent production.

Yeah, Heath as the starter gets most of the looks for sure (he had 60 catches this year), but the Spaeth/James/Johnson trifecta only managed 12 catches between them last year (8 for James and 2 each for Spaeth and Johnson).

There were 56 tight ends who had more catches in 2015 last year than Spaeth, James, and Johnson had combined last season. There were 71 TE's who had more catches than James last season and 95 TE's who had more catches than Spaeth or Johnson.

In 14 combined seasons for Spaeth, Johnson, and James, there have been 2 years of double digit receptions (in Johnson's first year in 2012, he had 15 catches and in Spaeth's second year in 2008, he had 17 catches). Johnson's catch production has been on a steady decline every year since then (15-8-6-2). Spaeth's catch production has also been on a relative decline ever since his second year (5-17-5-9-7-6-1-3-2).

Do I hope that James will show he is capable of getting decent production? Absolutely!
Do I think that James will show he is capable of getting decent production? Sure!
Do I want to rely on James being capable of getting decent production? No!

And this is all assuming that all 3 of the guys stay healthy too...what if we rely on James to get us decent production, and he gets hurt in training camp? I'm not ready to go into a season with just one young TE you are hoping may be able to grow into a starter role, a one-dimensional veteran on the back nine of his career (Spaeth is only 1 year younger than Heath), and a guy playing out of position. An influx of legit talent is needed here, either through free agency or early in the draft.