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Thread: Odds don't favor Steelers turnaround

  1. #1
    Legend hawaiiansteel's Avatar
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    May 2008
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    Odds don't favor Steelers turnaround

    Odds don't favor Steelers turnaround

    May, 30, 2014
    By Scott Brown |

    The oddsmakers at Bovada donít like the Pittsburgh Steelers' chances of making significant improvement in 2014.

    The online sports book set the Steelersí over/under win total for 2014 at 8.5 following consecutive 8-8 seasons.

    First: Breathe, people. Second, we are still more than three months away from the start of the regular season, so these odds are nothing more than something to talk about and debate.

    Since the Steelers are undefeated right now, I will stick with my optimistic projection of 10 wins in 2014.

    Bet on this at your own risk, but there are plenty of reasons to think the Steelers will go over 8.5 wins. Among them:

    You always have a chance in the NFL if you have a quarterback, and Ben Roethlisberger is still in the prime of his career and playing at a high level. He will operate behind his best offensive line since early in his career. And itís hard not to like the skill players Roethlisberger has around him if wide receiver Markus Wheaton makes the jump the Steelers expect this season.

    The defense will be better in 2014. The Steelers added speed with the additions of free safety Mike Mitchell and linebacker Ryan Shazier. Outside linebacker Jarvis Jones will emerge as an impact player in his second season, and Steve McLendon will assert himself at nose tackle with a year of starting there under his belt.

    The Steelers, who havenít traveled long distances well under coach Mike Tomlin, donít play west of the Mississippi River this season, and they only play one game outside of their time zone. The schedule sets up nicely for them.

    Too optimistic? Perhaps, and here is what could go wrong:

    The offensive line never seems to stay healthy, and while Mike Munchak might be the best offensive line coach in the NFL, wholesale injuries would make his job significantly harder. The Steelers do appear to be better equipped to deal with injuries up front given their depth, but it would be nice if they can develop continuity by staying relatively healthy.

    The defense could depend on too many young players. Shazier looks great playing inside linebacker in shorts -- OTAs are one thing, training camp quite another. Also, defensive end Stephon Tuitt will probably have to play significant snaps, and the nuances of his position are not easy for a young player to learn.

    Here is how the Steelers compare with their division rivals, according to Bovada:

    Over/under win totals

    Bengals: 9
    Steelers: 8.5
    Ravens: 8.5
    Browns: 6.5

    Odds to win the AFC North

    Bengals: 2-1
    Steelers: 2-1
    Ravens: 5-2
    Browns: 5-1

  2. #2
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    Apr 2012
    Just West of the Baltimore Browns
    I will take the over when it comes to the win total. I'n thinking double digit.

    As far as the odds of winning the division...I can go along with that.

    What I like Offensively-

    -The addition of Munchak.
    -DDC and Foster and both sides of whoever plays Center, be that Pouncey, Wallace or whoever.
    -The competition at the Tackle spots and who is competing. Good stuff. Looks promising.

    -The addition of Blount and Archer vs the subtraction of Dwyer and Felix Jones.

    -The addition of Moore and Heyward-Bey vs the subtraction of Cotchery and Sanders. While this is a push, it advantages to the Steelers when you factor in Wheaton, Archer and Bryant. I don't see a drop off in production and when you throw in the potential of Wheaton, Archer and Bryant, that get's me very excited.

    What I don't like-

    -The depth at TE. Wish we had someone behind Miller with a little more to add to the mix besides Spaeth/Palmer/Blanchflower. It's serviceable yet scary.

    What I like Defensively-

    -The team has added a lot of speed all over the field.

    -The LB group could be spectacular if certain players continue to develop and stay healthy. Could be the deepest in the league.

    What scares me a little regarding the Defense-

    -The D-line has nice talent and a lot of potential, but are they too young to be great as soon as we would like.

    -Can the CBs maintain/exceed the level of play from last year?

    Looking forward to NOT starting the season 0-4. That alone is a huge plus. Getting a win in game one vs the Browns is step one. Step two is putting the Ravens at 0-2 not just record wise but in the division. Step three is having 10 days to prep for the Panthers, and with that depleted WR group, game planning against them should not be too difficult.

    We start the season 3-0. 2-1 at the worst.

  3. #3
    Legend RuthlessBurgher's Avatar
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    Where the Rubber Meets the Road (in NEPA)
    It's kinda odd that the very same oddsmakers would give us the same line as the Ravens in terms of win total (behind the Bengals) but the same odds of winning the division as the Bengals (ahead of the Ravens).

  4. #4
    Hall of Famer DukieBoy's Avatar
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    May 2008
    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    It's kinda odd that the very same oddsmakers would give us the same line as the Ravens in terms of win total (behind the Bengals) but the same odds of winning the division as the Bengals (ahead of the Ravens).
    Maybe because the oddsmakers know we will kick the raven's arses twice this year.

    Narcissistic injury is the term used for any threat to a narcissist's outsized ego or self-esteem.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Odds makers. Who cares. They miss on a lot every year. And if we had just one more win, we make the play offs last year. Did they have AZ winning 10 games last year? I bet they had the Ravens winning more than 8. On and on it goes.

  6. #6
    Pro Bowler skyhawk's Avatar
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    Dec 2008
    Steelers always have done well when they are the dog. What's new?

    Everyone was saying this after a crappy 2003! But that was before Ben Roethlisberger. He's still here. Screw the odds.

  7. #7
    Never tell me the odds...

  8. #8
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Porto Alegre, Brazil
    For the record, Shazier stands as the 3rd (tied with Aaron Donald) favorite player to win DROY based on oddsmakers.

  9. #9
    Legend RuthlessBurgher's Avatar
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    Where the Rubber Meets the Road (in NEPA)
    By Mike Wilkening
    June 5, 2014, 4:06 PM EDT
    Oddsmaker: Patriots, Broncos heaviest favorites to make playoffs
    Nevada oddsmaking firm CG Technology has set playoff odds for 21 NFL teams, giving the public a chance to vote up or down (with cash, of course) on a club’s postseason prospects.
    In 7-of-8 divisions, at least one club is better than a 50 percent shot to make the playoffs, per CG’s odds. The only division without a club rated at least even-money to make the postseason is the AFC North, where the Steelers (+120) have been bet to favoritism.
    The Patriots (-440) are the strongest favorites to make the playoffs on CG’s odds, with the Broncos (-400) and Seahawks (-250) the next shortest prices. Bettors seeking to back New England to make the postseason would have to wager $44 to win $10 on a successful gamble.
    Here are the team odds offered at the CG sports books as of Thursday. The implied odds were calculated using the team’s current price:
    AFC East
    New England Patriots: Yes: -440. No: +340. (Suggested playoff odds: 81.5 percent).
    Miami Dolphins: Yes: +300. No: -400. (Suggested playoff odds: 25.0 percent).

    AFC North
    Pittsburgh Steelers: Yes: +120. No: -150. (Suggested playoff odds: 45.5 percent).
    Cincinnati Bengals: Yes: +135. No: -165. (Suggested playoff odds: 42.6 percent).
    Baltimore Ravens: Yes: +160. No: -190. (Suggested playoff odds: 38.5 percent).

    AFC South
    Indianapolis Colts: Yes: -175. No: +145. (Suggested playoff odds: 63.6 percent).
    Houston Texans: Yes: +225. No: -275. (Suggested playoff odds: 30.8 percent).

    AFC West
    Denver Broncos: Yes: -400. No: +300. (Suggested playoff odds: 80.0 percent).
    Kansas City Chiefs: Yes: +350. No: -550. (Suggested playoff odds: 22.2 percent).
    San Diego Chargers: Yes: +350. No: -500. (Suggested playoff odds: 22.2 percent).

    NFC East
    Philadelphia Eagles: Yes: -110. No: -120. (Suggested playoff odds: 52.4 percent).
    Dallas Cowboys: Yes: +240. No: -300. (Suggested playoff odds: 29.4 percent).
    New York Giants: Yes: +240. No: -300. (Suggested playoff odds: 29.4 percent).

    NFC North
    Green Bay Packers: Yes: -170. No: +140. (Suggested playoff odds: 63.0 percent).
    Chicago Bears: Yes: +250. No: -320. (Suggested playoff odds: 28.6 percent).
    Detroit Lions: Yes: +250. No: -320. (Suggested playoff odds: 28.6 percent).

    NFC South
    New Orleans Saints: Yes: -145. No: -105. (Suggested playoff odds: 59.2 percent).
    Atlanta Falcons: Yes: +220. No: -270. (Suggested playoff odds: 31.3 percent).
    Carolina Panthers: Yes: +230. No: -280. (Suggested playoff odds: 30.3 percent).

    NFC West
    Seattle Seahawks: Yes: -250. No: +200. (Suggested playoff odds: 71.4 percent).
    San Francisco 49ers: Yes: -210. No: +175. (Suggested playoff odds: 67.7 percent).
    Last edited by RuthlessBurgher; 06-06-2014 at 11:33 PM.


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