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Thread: Odds on our first rnd pick...

  1. #1

    Odds on our first rnd pick...

    I have put together some percentages on who I believe our first round pick will be...

    Percentages based on Professional Mock Drafts on line, Pro Football Draft Guide, NFL Networks Path to the Draft, my own gut feeling, who I believe and others believe will possibly still be on the board at 15, The Steelers Way (how they usually pick), Steelers draft needs and Planet Steelers Forum.

    I am bored and there is no Sunday Night Football, So here goes... This will be updated each week. I have picked successfully our first round pick in 8 of the last 10 drafts (no evidence though besides my wife's word)


    4-6-14

    D. Dennard CB M. State 20%
    E. Ebron TE N.Carolina 18%
    M. Lee WR USC 15%
    *J. Gilbert CB OK ST. 11%
    L. Nix DT N. Dame 9%
    *M. Evans WR T A & M 8%
    CJ Mosely ILB ALA 7%
    J. Verrett CB TCU 5%
    B. Cooks WR OR ST. 4%
    K. Fuller CB VA TECH 2%
    K. Ealy DE Missouri 1%

    * Numbers low as player projected to be picked before 15

    If you feel there is anyone missing that we may pick who could be on the board, I would love to hear from you.

    I have checked many a mocks...It seems as though a little less than half of them have Dennard and Gilbert gone when we pick. If this is the case, I believe we end up with Ebron or M. Lee.

    I do feel there is a strong percentage we will be trading down this year which would blow all these numbers up.


    Final Update: 5-1-2014

    D. Dennard CB M. State 19%
    CJ Mosely ILB ALA 16%
    *J. Gilbert CB OK ST. 14%
    Odell Beckham Jr. WR LSU 12%
    K. Fuller CB Va Tech 12%

    *An offensive Tackle (Lewan, Thomas) 8%
    E. Ebron TE N.Carolina 5%
    *M. Evans WR T A & M 5%
    *A. Barr OLB UCLA 4%
    L. Nix DT N. Dame 3%
    M. Lee WR USC 2%

    At the end of the day I feel we end up with Dennard, Mosely, Beckham Jr or Fuller
    Last edited by legend of polamalu; 05-02-2014 at 12:01 AM.

  2. #2
    Hall of Famer Sugar's Avatar
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    Everyone seems to think that this is a very deep draft. It seems like that would make it really hard to trade down.

    Anyway, the chances seem good that Dennard will be the guy. If so, good for him and good for Pittsburgh. It's not a sexy pick, but it makes sense. A lot of my family is from up there and they were ecstatic when we got Bell and are really hoping we get Dennard too.

  3. #3
    I have K. Benjamin WR, A. Barr OLB and A. Donald DT as the next guys that we may look at if there.
    Last edited by legend of polamalu; 04-06-2014 at 09:59 PM.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by legend of polamalu View Post
    I have put together some percentages on who I believe our first round pick will be...

    Percentages based on Professional Mock Drafts on line, Pro Football Draft Guide, NFL Networks Path to the Draft, my own gut feeling, who I believe and others believe will possibly still be on the board at 15, The Steelers Way (how they usually pick), Steelers draft needs and Planet Steelers Forum.

    I am bored and there is no Sunday Night Football, So here goes... This will be updated each week. I have picked successfully our first round pick in 8 of the last 10 drafts (no evidence though besides my wife's word)


    4-6-14

    D. Dennard CB M. State 20%
    E. Ebron TE N.Carolina 18%
    M. Lee WR USC 15%
    *J. Gilbert CB OK ST. 11%
    L. Nix DT N. Dame 9%
    *M. Evans WR T A & M 8%
    CJ Mosely ILB ALA 7%
    J. Verrett CB TCU 5%
    B. Cooks WR OR ST. 4%
    K. Fuller CB VA TECH 2%
    K. Ealy DE Missouri 1%

    * Numbers low as player projected to be picked before 15

    If you feel there is anyone missing that we may pick who could be on the board, I would love to hear from you.

    I have checked many a mocks...It seems as though a little less than half of them have Dennard and Gilbert gone when we pick. If this is the case, I believe we end up with Ebron or M. Lee.

    I do feel there is a strong percentage we will be trading down this year which would blow all these numbers up.
    With a draft as deep as this one is reported to be it will be difficult to trade down. Someone below us is really goindg to have to want a specific player. Not sure there are any of those kinds of players projected to still be around at #15
    Playing Fantasy Football does not qualify you to be the in the front office or on the coaching staff of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are professionals and you are not!

  5. #5
    I think that there is a strong chance that the first round pick is somebody that catches passes or covers those trying to do so. Not necessarily based on my preference, but based on what I think the Steelers will do, I think the first round pick will likely be one of the following:

    D. Dennard
    K. Benjamin
    J. Gilbert
    M. Evans

    The other guys who I think have a chance:

    A. Barr
    R. Hageman/S. Tuitt/L. Nix (I think 1.15 is too high for these three).

  6. #6
    I think that is pretty close. I would have Mosley much higher, maybe as high as second on that list. We don't have a starting quality ILB on this roster. Mosley is a tackling machine. If it's not a DB, and Evans don't fall...it's not going to be a WR. The draft is too deep in the second at WR. They will be looking for a big school guy on D who has produced...and Mosley fits that bill. I think it will be one of 4 guys...Dennard, Gilbert, Mosley, or Ebron.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by phillyesq View Post
    I think that there is a strong chance that the first round pick is somebody that catches passes or covers those trying to do so. Not necessarily based on my preference, but based on what I think the Steelers will do, I think the first round pick will likely be one of the following:

    D. Dennard
    K. Benjamin
    J. Gilbert
    M. Evans

    The other guys who I think have a chance:

    A. Barr
    R. Hageman/S. Tuitt/L. Nix (I think 1.15 is too high for these three).
    I see almost no way the Steelers draft Benjamin. He is considered around the 5th best WR in the draft...the Steelers don't reach in the first.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
    I think that is pretty close. I would have Mosley much higher, maybe as high as second on that list. We don't have a starting quality ILB on this roster. Mosley is a tackling machine. If it's not a DB, and Evans don't fall...it's not going to be a WR. The draft is too deep in the second at WR. They will be looking for a big school guy on D who has produced...and Mosley fits that bill. I think it will be one of 4 guys...Dennard, Gilbert, Mosley, or Ebron.
    Yea, I may move him up...I just don't see many mocks with us grabbing him. I also see he is undersized for an ILB which the Steelers usually stay away from. Plus we have gone LB heavy of late. Mostly OLB though.

  9. #9
    He may be a bit small but he is smart, and covers really well. Tomlin doesn't like big thumpers, he likes the more mobile LBrs who can cover. Mosley is that guy. My ONLY reservation with Mosley is his knee. Some believe he has some mileage on him.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by legend of polamalu View Post
    Yea, I may move him up...I just don't see many mocks with us grabbing him. I also see he is undersized for an ILB which the Steelers usually stay away from. Plus we have gone LB heavy of late. Mostly OLB though.
    He is probably bigger than Farrior was for most of his career with us. I recall reading once that Farrior was playing at 220lbs or less. Timmons just happens to be a physical freak with his combination of size and athleticism.

    One named not mentioned which could be a real wildcard is Ryan Shazier. He fits the "run and hit" type LB that Tomlin loves. Tremendous speed and sideline to sideline pursuit capability which is becoming more critical as teams use TEs and RBs more as pass catchers.
    Last edited by Oviedo; 04-07-2014 at 09:45 AM.
    Playing Fantasy Football does not qualify you to be the in the front office or on the coaching staff of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are professionals and you are not!

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