Originally Posted by
JUST-PLAIN-NASTY
[SIZE=3]I think you have to allow three years before you can crown a draft anything. Given the numbers over the years, you want your Top 3 picks to turn into starters or major contributors. Throw in Thomas because they gave up a 3rd to get him. That 3 year window tends to be pushed or even roll over into year 4 on contending teams because the talent on the roster. Given the Steelers age situation...I think the window is smaller. If you miss on your 1st, it really diminishes the rest of the draft class. What makes the class strong is when you hit on the guys that statistically won't turn into starters or contributors in rounds 4-7 or UDFA. There is a laundry list of scenarios related to system & position where guys in the later rounds are viewed as potential starters down the road. "Statistically" speaking league wide through history....These players are depth, journeymen, and many don't make it.
The Steelers draft was with "extreme prejudice" to my process so I HOPE down the road those "prejudices" will no longer exist based on the outcome. Saying that, you would expect Jones, Bell, & Thomas to become fulltime starters. You would expect Wheaton to at least become a productive #3. Jones is not a sure thing by no means but he has the uncoachable football smarts where you have to really like his chances if his medical doesn't ever surface. You would expect Jones to be a 10+ sack guy in this system. Drafting RB Bell this high has to become your feature in that time frame. You would expect Bell to be a 1,000 back once he earns the starting role. You would also expect Wheaton to be at least a #3 who can slide in as a starter in a pinch. A 40+ catch guy min once he moves to #3. Given Thomas's position, I think it is very realistic to expect him to be a starter once Troy is done. The only thing holding him out of the 1st 2 rounds was his height so if he proves that is a non factor...You would expect him to become a starter once his path is cleared. I think that would be the "floor". Anything less than that would be a disappointment.
The rest of the picks is where this draft could become special. Everyone form L Jones to Williams is "viewed" as depth & role but they could provide some real value if not turn into starters some day.
Jones is the young backup to groom but has the physical tools to develop into a starting NFL QB. How high he climbs is up to his mental development.
Hawthorne is expected to be nothing more than a body in sub packages but he has the physical ability to be a starter. Some technique coaching and absorbing from the vets around him could make him push the nickel back.
Brown is your hit or miss guy. It is funny...They Steelers did the same thing on another 6th round Brown. J Brown is the Steelers chance at a Boldin or he will be just another late round WR. That will be his niche. Recognize it, develop it, & he has a chance in the NFL. Try to be any other type of WR...He won't make it. He could be the guy who pushes a vet off the roster or PS material.
Then there is everyone's favorite ILB Williams. You don't expect much from a 6th round ILB but a possible back-up, a developmental PS player, or camp body. In this system, he has a chance. Average athletes tend to excel as system players and I think Williams could be that type of player. He has some "intangibles" as a defensive player that fits an ILB. You put that type of player next to a Superstar and good things could happen.
A Gem perhaps...Nick Williams. Best way I could describe him is...A raw 16oz filet mignon sitting on a plate. He could follow the same path as Keisel. I don't expect anything early but if he could sit on the PS and develop...He may be a rotation guy by 2014 and push everyone in front of him. If football was his passion in HS instead of basketball...He may have been playing for Alabama and everyone would have known his name.
This overview is excellent.
Good triangle numbers from big time programs gives this draft a high ceiling. And in the same breath a low bust potential. But as JPN stated it may take some time to truly know.
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