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Thread: Why teams shouldn't pick RBs in first round of the draft (new from SteelCityStats)

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    Why teams shouldn't pick RBs in first round of the draft (new from SteelCityStats)

    All, thanks for all the kind words and encouraging comments for our first article. The Drinking Guy and I have finally published our second article, which explains quantitatively why teams should not be drafting running backs in the first round. Check it out, and be sure (if you like it) to tell friends and family.

    Cheers!

    www.steelcitystats.com

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    Hard to argue your points in there. Chadman isn't convinced there is such a great drop-off between the 1st round type RB's this year than the 3-4th round type RB's.
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    1 thing that wasn't quite pointed out though- if 8 out of the top 20 RB's were from the 1st round (40%), that means 60% of the top RB's were spread throughout the remaining 6 rounds. Without breaking down the maths- that'd mean that no other round gets statistically close to the 1st round in terms of success at RB.

    So really, the chances of success with a 1st round type RB, are far greater than with a lower round guy.
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    Chadman, good point. But, 12 of the 20 top rushers are not from the first round, that means the better play is on running backs in the 2nd or 3rd round in terms of cost/benefit. You're going to have to pay a first round pick big money. The Bears had Matt Forte under contract for about $750K a year because he was picked in the 2nd round. Rice, McCoy, MJD, Forte, Gore, Ridley, etc. all had cheaper rookie contracts and delivered nicely.

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    RB is a real hard spot to evaluate like this, particularly due to the RB-Rotation phenomenon of the last few seasons. More & more teams are getting equal value from 2 RB's instead of just 1.

    The real issue Chadman has with Eddie Lacy is not that he is, or isn't, 1st round worthy, but is he much more different from what the Steelers already have on the roster at RB?
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
    Chadman, good point. But, 12 of the 20 top rushers are not from the first round, that means the better play is on running backs in the 2nd or 3rd round in terms of cost/benefit. You're going to have to pay a first round pick big money. The Bears had Matt Forte under contract for about $750K a year because he was picked in the 2nd round. Rice, McCoy, MJD, Forte, Gore, Ridley, etc. all had cheaper rookie contracts and delivered nicely.
    While Chadman agrees with your statement- 2nd & 3rd round RB's are often better 'value' RB's, statistics don't back up that 2nd & 3rd round RB's are better than 1st round RB's. The 12 of 20 RB's not selected in the 1st round are spread throught 6 other rounds... the simple maths equation says that's 10% success from each remaining round.

    Not disagreeing that there is better value in the 2nd/3rd round, just being nit-picky about stats.
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  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
    Chadman, good point. But, 12 of the 20 top rushers are not from the first round, that means the better play is on running backs in the 2nd or 3rd round in terms of cost/benefit. You're going to have to pay a first round pick big money. The Bears had Matt Forte under contract for about $750K a year because he was picked in the 2nd round. Rice, McCoy, MJD, Forte, Gore, Ridley, etc. all had cheaper rookie contracts and delivered nicely.
    Statistically that makes sense. More running backs are selected in rounds 2-7, therefore more chances to be a top running back. I would expect most of the top 20 rushers not to be first round picks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chadman View Post
    RB is a real hard spot to evaluate like this, particularly due to the RB-Rotation phenomenon of the last few seasons. More & more teams are getting equal value from 2 RB's instead of just 1.

    The real issue Chadman has with Eddie Lacy is not that he is, or isn't, 1st round worthy, but is he much more different from what the Steelers already have on the roster at RB?
    I think it is safe to say that Lacy is probably better than Dwyer and he is definitely better than Redman and Batch.
    Playing Fantasy Football does not qualify you to be the in the front office or on the coaching staff of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are professionals and you are not!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oviedo View Post
    I think it is safe to say that Lacy is probably better than Dwyer and he is definitely better than Redman and Batch.
    Probably better... yeah, why not. But that wasn't Chadman's point. If the Steelers field a RB committee of Lacy, Dwyer & Redman... there's zero variety there. They are the same guy, more or less, in style. Where's the change of pace? The recieving back? The 3rd down guy?

    If the Steelers draft Lacy- they'd be better off punting at least 1, if not both Dwyer & Redman & finding other types of RB to compliment Lacy.

    The Steelers need a 'take it to the house' RB, not another 'up the middle' guy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oviedo View Post
    I think it is safe to say that Lacy is probably better than Dwyer and he is definitely better than Redman and Batch.
    I'm tired of trying to find Bettis 2.0... we need a Gore, Lynch type RB. I wish Mendenhall would make up his mind and play to his potential because he has the perfect skill set for our team he just dances too much.

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