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Thread: Why teams shouldn't pick RBs in first round of the draft (new from SteelCityStats)

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  1. #1
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    Why teams shouldn't pick RBs in first round of the draft (new from SteelCityStats)

    All, thanks for all the kind words and encouraging comments for our first article. The Drinking Guy and I have finally published our second article, which explains quantitatively why teams should not be drafting running backs in the first round. Check it out, and be sure (if you like it) to tell friends and family.

    Cheers!

    www.steelcitystats.com

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    Hard to argue your points in there. Chadman isn't convinced there is such a great drop-off between the 1st round type RB's this year than the 3-4th round type RB's.
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    1 thing that wasn't quite pointed out though- if 8 out of the top 20 RB's were from the 1st round (40%), that means 60% of the top RB's were spread throughout the remaining 6 rounds. Without breaking down the maths- that'd mean that no other round gets statistically close to the 1st round in terms of success at RB.

    So really, the chances of success with a 1st round type RB, are far greater than with a lower round guy.
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    Chadman, good point. But, 12 of the 20 top rushers are not from the first round, that means the better play is on running backs in the 2nd or 3rd round in terms of cost/benefit. You're going to have to pay a first round pick big money. The Bears had Matt Forte under contract for about $750K a year because he was picked in the 2nd round. Rice, McCoy, MJD, Forte, Gore, Ridley, etc. all had cheaper rookie contracts and delivered nicely.

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    RB is a real hard spot to evaluate like this, particularly due to the RB-Rotation phenomenon of the last few seasons. More & more teams are getting equal value from 2 RB's instead of just 1.

    The real issue Chadman has with Eddie Lacy is not that he is, or isn't, 1st round worthy, but is he much more different from what the Steelers already have on the roster at RB?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chadman View Post
    RB is a real hard spot to evaluate like this, particularly due to the RB-Rotation phenomenon of the last few seasons. More & more teams are getting equal value from 2 RB's instead of just 1.

    The real issue Chadman has with Eddie Lacy is not that he is, or isn't, 1st round worthy, but is he much more different from what the Steelers already have on the roster at RB?
    I think it is safe to say that Lacy is probably better than Dwyer and he is definitely better than Redman and Batch.
    Playing Fantasy Football does not qualify you to be the in the front office or on the coaching staff of the Pittsburgh Steelers. They are professionals and you are not!

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
    Chadman, good point. But, 12 of the 20 top rushers are not from the first round, that means the better play is on running backs in the 2nd or 3rd round in terms of cost/benefit. You're going to have to pay a first round pick big money. The Bears had Matt Forte under contract for about $750K a year because he was picked in the 2nd round. Rice, McCoy, MJD, Forte, Gore, Ridley, etc. all had cheaper rookie contracts and delivered nicely.
    While Chadman agrees with your statement- 2nd & 3rd round RB's are often better 'value' RB's, statistics don't back up that 2nd & 3rd round RB's are better than 1st round RB's. The 12 of 20 RB's not selected in the 1st round are spread throught 6 other rounds... the simple maths equation says that's 10% success from each remaining round.

    Not disagreeing that there is better value in the 2nd/3rd round, just being nit-picky about stats.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chadman View Post
    While Chadman agrees with your statement- 2nd & 3rd round RB's are often better 'value' RB's, statistics don't back up that 2nd & 3rd round RB's are better than 1st round RB's. The 12 of 20 RB's not selected in the 1st round are spread throught 6 other rounds... the simple maths equation says that's 10% success from each remaining round.

    Not disagreeing that there is better value in the 2nd/3rd round, just being nit-picky about stats.
    You can make this argument for any position on the field, if you wanted to. Should we not take QBs until the 6th round since that is where Tom Brady was taken?

    Were Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Chris Johnson, Jon Stewart, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Stephen Jackson, Larry Johnson, Willis McGayhee, LT, Duce McAllister, Jamal Lewis, Shaun Alexander, Edge James. Ricky Williams, Fred Taylor, Eddie George, Marshall Faulk, Barry Sanders, Bettis, Robert Smith, Hearst, Emmitt Smith, et al not worthy of taking in the first round?

    Also, the article mentions that taking Lacy at 17 over all is too high. I haven't seen ANYONE assert that Lacy go in the 1st round. Everyone has him listed as a 2nd round pick. There have been a ton of top RBs taken in the 2nd round, including Ray Rice, Mo Jo, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Clinton Portis, Travis Henry, Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, Mike Alstott, Charlie Garner, etc.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
    Chadman, good point. But, 12 of the 20 top rushers are not from the first round, that means the better play is on running backs in the 2nd or 3rd round in terms of cost/benefit. You're going to have to pay a first round pick big money. The Bears had Matt Forte under contract for about $750K a year because he was picked in the 2nd round. Rice, McCoy, MJD, Forte, Gore, Ridley, etc. all had cheaper rookie contracts and delivered nicely.
    Statistically that makes sense. More running backs are selected in rounds 2-7, therefore more chances to be a top running back. I would expect most of the top 20 rushers not to be first round picks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
    Chadman, good point. But, 12 of the 20 top rushers are not from the first round, that means the better play is on running backs in the 2nd or 3rd round in terms of cost/benefit. You're going to have to pay a first round pick big money. The Bears had Matt Forte under contract for about $750K a year because he was picked in the 2nd round. Rice, McCoy, MJD, Forte, Gore, Ridley, etc. all had cheaper rookie contracts and delivered nicely.
    This.

    Since the transition of the league to passing, the financial decision plays as much a part as anything. Be interesting to see how contract value factors into your stats. Based on % of offensive contribution to a team, how much of the cap does the RB consume on a per yard basis.

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