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Thread: Dr. Demming would be proud

  1. #1
    Backup Chucktownsteeler's Avatar
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    Dr. Demming would be proud

    So this is why we did not make the playoffs:

    http://www.steelcitystats.com/

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    Actually- that's pretty good stuff...
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    The trend in the NFL is towards the dink and dunk offense, by getting the football into the hands of the playmakers as quickly as possible. YAC is becoming critical and it should be no surprise that 10 of the 15 top receivers in YAC play for teams that made the postseason. Pittsburgh’s best performer in terms of YAC was Heath Miller, who finished 23rd in the league. Antonio Brown was 32nd in the league. Mike Wallace did miss a game, but for a guy who wants to get paid because of his playmaking ability, he was outside of the top 40. These are not receiving numbers that are conducive to winning. The jury is still out on Todd Haley. Put the onus back on the players to execute, not on the coaches…yet.
    I agree with this observation, and it is another reason why the Steelers desperately need to find a complement to Miller in a WR.

    However the article's analysis is only skin deep. There is a whole other analysis that could be done to understand what factors contribute to high QB passer success. I still maintain that Ben (and probably most QBs) have high ratings when the run game can support in key situations, i.e, converting short yardage 3rd downs. When a defense has to play 'honest', it makes the QB's job a whole lot easier.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NorthCoast View Post
    There is a whole other analysis that could be done to understand what factors contribute to high QB passer success.
    I agree, insofar that another analysis should be done to understand and that our first article was meant to be an introduction and to set the tone to future articles.

    Hi all, I'm one of the authors and primary researcher on that article you've read on steelcitystats.com. My partner and I have plans to do exactly what you're saying. However, it's a deep analysis that will may not be conducive to linear regression. We're prepping our next article now, and it's not on this topic, but we will endeavor to wrap back around to this topic soon. It fascinates me also.

    You're right on the complement to Miller. They need someone who can make plays in space, like a Brandon Marshall or Wes Welker. The guys who are racking up the YAC are high pedigree guys and they are highly valued to their teams. Two running backs, Rice and Sproles, are in the top 10. They are extremely gifted athletes and fit perfectly into their teams' offenses. Pittsburgh, in my humble opinion, should be looking for an athletic back (that can catch the ball and make plays in space) somewhere in the second to fourth round this season. The Haley offense absolutely depends on it.

  5. #5
    Legend fordfixer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
    I agree, insofar that another analysis should be done to understand and that our first article was meant to be an introduction and to set the tone to future articles.

    Hi all, I'm one of the authors and primary researcher on that article you've read on steelcitystats.com. My partner and I have plans to do exactly what you're saying. However, it's a deep analysis that will may not be conducive to linear regression. We're prepping our next article now, and it's not on this topic, but we will endeavor to wrap back around to this topic soon. It fascinates me also.

    You're right on the complement to Miller. They need someone who can make plays in space, like a Brandon Marshall or Wes Welker. The guys who are racking up the YAC are high pedigree guys and they are highly valued to their teams. Two running backs, Rice and Sproles, are in the top 10. They are extremely gifted athletes and fit perfectly into their teams' offenses. Pittsburgh, in my humble opinion, should be looking for an athletic back (that can catch the ball and make plays in space) somewhere in the second to fourth round this season. The Haley offense absolutely depends on it.
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  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
    I agree, insofar that another analysis should be done to understand and that our first article was meant to be an introduction and to set the tone to future articles.

    Hi all, I'm one of the authors and primary researcher on that article you've read on steelcitystats.com. My partner and I have plans to do exactly what you're saying. However, it's a deep analysis that will may not be conducive to linear regression. We're prepping our next article now, and it's not on this topic, but we will endeavor to wrap back around to this topic soon. It fascinates me also.

    You're right on the complement to Miller. They need someone who can make plays in space, like a Brandon Marshall or Wes Welker. The guys who are racking up the YAC are high pedigree guys and they are highly valued to their teams. Two running backs, Rice and Sproles, are in the top 10. They are extremely gifted athletes and fit perfectly into their teams' offenses. Pittsburgh, in my humble opinion, should be looking for an athletic back (that can catch the ball and make plays in space) somewhere in the second to fourth round this season. The Haley offense absolutely depends on it.
    That was what Rainey was drafted for. CRAP! Very nice analysis also! Looking forward to more.

  7. #7
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    Rainey wasn't used properly or nearly enough (not sure why he wasn't used on punt returns, especially after brown's injury and blunders). I am not so sure in the long run he would have stayed healthy in the NFL.

    We definitely need to address the RB situation this off-season.

    Thinking Guy - Welcome aboard, but lay off though tattoos.

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    Welcome !!!

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    Pro Bowler thor75's Avatar
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    Thinking Guy -- Have you done this analysis for all 32 teams? Just curious how it would do for the 49ers, I haven't looked at their stats but they seem to run quite a bit.

    Awesome job!
    1. C.J. Mosley LB Alabama
    2. Jordan Matthews WR Vanderbilt
    3. (comp) Philip Gaines CB Rice
    4. Arthur Lynch TE Georgia
    5. Ross Cockrell CB Duke
    5. (comp) Derrick Hopkins DT Virginia Tech
    6. Josh Mauro DE Stanford
    6. (comp) Shaquil Barrett OLB Colorado State
    7. Quincy Enunwa WR Nebraska

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    So that's an interesting question. The 49ers are one of three teams that had a higher run play percentage than pass play. The other two teams? Seattle and Washington, also playoff teams. Other common bonds between them? Both teams execute the read option offense (so the QBs end up running a lot) and both teams are playing with first year quarterbacks. Furthermore, all three teams have running backs that have had stellar seasons. Oh by the way, their defenses are pretty stout as well.

    If your question is "Were the 49ers' stats included in the Win Model regression?" the answer is 'of course.' All 32 teams were included for the last 3 seasons.

    Plugging in the 49ers' passer rating (101.2), passer rating allowed [78], and fumbles lost [8] you get a prediction of 11.9 wins. That's only one off.

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