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Thread: RuthlessBurgher's initial way-too-early New Year's Day trade down mock draft scenario

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  1. #13

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    Here is where I am leaning right now with the picks I obtained in my hypothetical trade down scenario.

    I originally was targeting Kevin Minter in early round 2, but now I think he comes off the board late in round 1. If I wanted to take him, I might have to use the late first rounder that I got from San Fran instead of trading down yet again with Miami. Since I already projected trading down with the Niners and Dolphins, I'll try filling in possibilities at those slots at this time.

    All of my day 2 picks (rounds 2 & 3) should be able contribute early on in their pro careers, and my day 3 picks are a developmental QB and a couple of guys whose talent suggests that they could have been taken much earlier if not for multiple knee injuries (instead of using my last couple of picks on guys who are boom-or-bust because of checkered pasts off the field, I'll take a similar risk/reward gamble on a couple of guys who are boom-or-bust because of extensive injury histories...they may not be ready to go at all in 2013, but if they manage to get healthy, they could provide tremendous value down the line).

    2.10 (from MIA) Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford, 6'6", 249 lbs.

    With the health of Heath Miller's knee up in the air, and Leonard Pope a free agent (and a relatively non-productive one at that), we could really use a solid TE (especially since Haley utilized Heath way better than Arians ever did). Unloading Weslye Saunders still looks like a mistake, even though David Paulson developed into a decent backup option. When Heath gets healthy, then Miller/Ertz could provide some matchup difficulties for defenses like Gronkowski/Hernandez, Pitta/Dickson, Fleener/Allen, etc. We'd have two options with reliable hands, size in the red zone, and blocking help for Adams/Gilbert.

    2.16 (PIT) Giovanni Bernard, RB, North Carolina, 5'10", 205 lbs.

    Statistics have shown that we are a better running team outside the tackles than up the middle, but guys like Redman and Dwyer are more plodding, while Bernard can be dynamic. He's quick, he's shifty, and he can catch passes out of the backfield. Could be a similar 2nd round find for us as Shady McCoy was for the Eagles a few years back.

    2.27 (from SF) Eric Reid, S, LSU, 6'2", 212 lbs.

    With Polamalu and Clark getting up there in age, and Will Allen and Ryan Mundy both free agents, we need potential future starters at safety who can learn from Troy and Ryan. We can't rely on Robert Golden and Da'Mon Cromartie-Smith as backups to a couple of older guys who throw around their bodies with reckless abandon.

    3.15 (PIT) Larry Warford, G, Kentucky, 6'3", 340 lbs.

    If we are unable to re-sign Foster, and Colon is potential cap casualty, then there is an opening for a starting guard (which Beachum would likely fill for the time being, but I prefer Beachum in a Trai Essex versatile backup role than as a starter). He's strong at the point of attack and surprisingly nimble and agile for a guy his size, making him a solid run blocker as well as a pass blocker.

    3.18 (from CHI through MIA) Sean Porter, OLB, Texas A&M, 6'2", 230 lbs.

    He replaced Von Miller in 2011, playing as a OLB in a 3-4 defense, amassing 79 tackles with 17 tackles for a loss, 9.5 sacks and one forced fumble. Then, the team switched to a 4-3, and he amassed 60 tackles, 5.5 tackles for a loss, 2.5 sacks, four passes broken up and an interception as an OLB in that scheme last season (obviously not rushing the passer as much, since that role went to DE Damontre Moore, and he will likely be a top 5 pick in this draft). Porter had the benefit of facing off against top OT prospects such as Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews every day in practice. He's roughly the same size as Timmons was coming out of college, and could be dangerous if he bulks up like Lawrence has done since becoming a pro. His versatility and skill are intriguing.

    4.16 Zac Dysert, QB, Miami (OH), 6'4", 228 lbs.

    Time to start developing a young QB prospect to backup Ben instead of relying on older, brittle veterans. We've had success drafting a QB from Miami of Ohio before, after all. If Landry Jones were still available, I would have gone that route, but I predict he'll come off the board on day two. I like Dysert the best of the day 3 developmental QB prospects.

    5.15 Marcus Lattimore, RB, South Carolina, 6'0", 218 lbs.

    He was amazing as a freshman and looked to be a sure-fire early first round talent before he blew out both of his knees. A massive injury risk, but so was Willis McGahee once upon a time, and he managed to carve out a solid NFL career for himself. For 2013, we should give RFA tenders to Redman and Dwyer, and having drafted Bernard in round 2, we should be good to go for this season if Lattimore needs to take the full 2013 a rehab redshirt. If Redman or Dwyer don't substantially improve this season, then they will walk as unrestricted free agents. Hopefully, by that point, Lattimore is good to go, and his skill set complements Bernard's quite well. We swung and missed with Chris Rainey in round 5...I'd take a shot at a much more talented Lattimore in the same round, even knowing the risk involved that he may never be close to what he could have been pre-injury.

    7.15 Michael Mauti, ILB, Penn State, 6'2", 239 lbs.

    Mauti was likely projected to be a second day draft pick before he, like Lattimore, blew out both of his knees. Maybe he never gets back to what he once was, but it's not like using a 7th round pick to find out is a risky proposition (although Paulson and Beachum stuck with us as 7th rounders in the last draft, we got nothing out of Clemons and Frederick). Maybe he makes it and maybe he doesn't. Maybe he sticks around, but only as a special teamer. Who knows. But if I'm going to gamble on someone, I'd prefer to gamble on a guy who was his team's captain rather than a punk with a long rap sheet.
    Last edited by RuthlessBurgher; 01-20-2013 at 12:37 AM.


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