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Thread: RuthlessBurgher's initial way-too-early New Year's Day trade down mock draft scenario

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    RuthlessBurgher's initial way-too-early New Year's Day trade down mock draft scenario

    There seems to be a difference of opinion out there on Manti Te'o...some say that he's a sure-thing top 10 draft pick, while others say that he could fall in the middle of the first round because inside backer is no longer premium position in today's NFL. If he falls to us because GM's don't highly value ILB anymore (like how DeCastro fell to us last year because GM's don't value guards either), then I grab him, since he's a legit player and our defense can use a true leader going forward in the post-Potsie era. But I'm going to approach this first mock draft as if one of the 16 teams ahead of us takes the leap on the Golden Domer first.

    Who could be the BPA at #17? Perhaps a guard like Chance Warmack, but would this team use another first round pick on an interior OL after using two recent first round picks on Pouncey and DeCastro? Perhaps a nose tackle like Johnathan Hankins, Jonathan Jenkins, or Jesse Williams, but would this team use another first round pick on a 3-4 DL after using two recent first round picks on Hood and Heyward? Maybe this could be the year that we trade down. But who might be interested in trading up?

    San Fran has a top notch defense, but their strong DL is starting to get up there in age (starting NT Isaac Sopoaga's contract is up right now and it is questionable whether or not they would be willing to give a guy entering his 10th season a long-term extension...plus top notch 3-4 DE Justin Smith is entering his 13th season and 2013 is the last year on his current contract). If someone like, say, Johnathan Hankins were available at #17, might the Niners be willing to trade up (their first and second round picks are exactly equivalent to our first round pick on the trade value chart), and they have 2 third round picks, so they could afford to give away their late 2nd rounder since they still have 2 opportunities to add depth to their secondary in round 3.

    17th overall pick (round 1) = 950 pts.

    29th overall pick (round 1) = 640 pts.
    59th overall pick (round 2) = 310 pts.
    Total = 950 pts.

    So, we trade down once into the late first round, getting an extra second round pick. What if we traded down again, out of the first round entirely, to give us even more opportunity at even more day two value? The Dolphins biggest need is a big-play WR after trading away Brandon Marshall. However, where they pick in round 1 at #12, there is not value at WR. They can use that pick to get the BPA available on defense or possibly OL. They have 2 second round picks and 2 third round picks in this draft, so they have ammo to move back into the latter portion of the first round again if they want to get a wideout like Justin Hunter, Keenan Allen, or Terrence Williams. We could trade the first round pick that we got from the Niners in exchange for their 2a and 3b selections (we may have to throw in our 6th round pick as well to make the numbers work, but that would be fine by me). This would give the Dolphins the 12th overall BPA pick, a top notch WR in the late first round, and they would still have another pick in round 2 and round 3 as well.

    29th overall pick (round 1) = 640 pts.
    178th overall pick (round 6) = 21.2 pts.
    Total = 661.2 pts.

    42nd overall pick (round 2) = 480 pts.
    82nd overall (round 3) = 180 pts.
    Total = 660 pts.

    The only one of the picks that could potentially be impacted by comp pick additions would be our 6th rounder, since the league doesn't start doling out comp selections until the end of round 3. But if you look at last season as an example of how many comp picks we might see, we had 1 extra pick at the end of round 3, 8 extra picks at the end of round 4, and 3 extra picks at the end of round 5. If comp picks move us back a total of a dozen selections at the end of rounds 3/4/5 like last year, then that would only make our 6th round pick drop in value by less than 5 points (16.4 instead of 21.2), which wouldn't necessarily be a deal-breaker (1.29 and 6.190 would be worth a total of 656.4 in this example...that's close enough to keep such a deal alive, I would think).

    These two trade-downs would give us the following haul on draft day.

    2.10 (from MIA)
    2.16 (PIT)
    2.27 (from SF)
    3.15 (PIT)
    3.18 (from CHI through MIA)
    4.16
    5.15
    7.15

    I'll leave you folks hanging for the time being before completing this initial mock this week.
    Last edited by RuthlessBurgher; 01-01-2013 at 11:48 PM.

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    Ruthless--we absolutley have to have another pick invested in the OL at either OG or OT. Warmack is a future Pro Bowl player. The last very good OL we had had high picks at LT (Marvel Smith-Round 2), LG (Faneca-Round 1), Center (Hartings-Round 1 Detroit), RG (Kendall Simmons-Round 1), RT (Max Starks-Round 2).

    I don't get why everyone has gotten amnesia and refuses to remember that we use to invest high picks in our OL across the board and weren't satisfied with journeyman low picks and UDFAs. Everyone is so desperate to make sure LeBeau has the pick of the litter that they can't see that until we fix the OL this team is not goimng to be a championship team and we will waste the 5-6 years we have left with Ben.
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    Pull the trigger and load up on picks. I like it.

    If Warmack is there when we pick, I'd consider him because he might just be the best player on the board. I wouldn't have a problem having the best set of interior linemen on the planet.

    I also wouldn't complain having 3 1st rounder on the DLine either.

    Whoever is the best player, let's just grab him and roll. If we can trade down and get more of them, I can dig that too.

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    Legend RuthlessBurgher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oviedo View Post
    Ruthless--we absolutley have to have another pick invested in the OL at either OG or OT. Warmack is a future Pro Bowl player. The last very good OL we had had high picks at LT (Marvel Smith-Round 2), LG (Faneca-Round 1), Center (Hartings-Round 1 Detroit), RG (Kendall Simmons-Round 1), RT (Max Starks-Round 2).

    I don't get why everyone has gotten amnesia and refuses to remember that we use to invest high picks in our OL across the board and weren't satisfied with journeyman low picks and UDFAs. Everyone is so desperate to make sure LeBeau has the pick of the litter that they can't see that until we fix the OL this team is not goimng to be a championship team and we will waste the 5-6 years we have left with Ben.
    We already have a 1st round center, a 1st round guard, and a couple of 2nd round tackles. Hopefully, these guys stay healthy and turn into players and we won't need yet another premium pick for that 5th OL slot.

    You have been a big proponent of the "we can only focus so much of our cap on one position" stance when it comes to our wideouts (since we already given Brown a long-term big-money deal, we can't afford another long-term big-money deal for Wallace at the same position).

    If we draft Warmack (who I really like as a player, by the way), and then give big money extensions to Pouncey and DeCastro in the coming seasons, how would you justify paying big dollars to yet another interior o-lineman as well? Wouldn't putting so many of our resources in the interior OL be to the detriment of our tackles and other positions as well?

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    Legend RuthlessBurgher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flippy View Post
    Pull the trigger and load up on picks. I like it.

    If Warmack is there when we pick, I'd consider him because he might just be the best player on the board. I wouldn't have a problem having the best set of interior linemen on the planet.

    I also wouldn't complain having 3 1st rounder on the DLine either.

    Whoever is the best player, let's just grab him and roll. If we can trade down and get more of them, I can dig that too.
    I just think the best value in this draft is on day 2 (2nd and 3rd rounds). I would rather have five picks on day 2 as I suggested in my trade down scenario than having the standard one pick on day 1 and then two picks on day 2. And I'm usually a guy who suggests sacrificing, say, a 3rd round pick to move up in the first to get a truly elite player. Not this year. This is a changing-of-the-guard load-up-on-guys-with-promising-futures type of draft year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post
    I just think the best value in this draft is on day 2 (2nd and 3rd rounds). I would rather have five picks on day 2 as I suggested in my trade down scenario than having the standard one pick on day 1 and then two picks on day 2. And I'm usually a guy who suggests sacrificing, say, a 3rd round pick to move up in the first to get a truly elite player. Not this year. This is a changing-of-the-guard load-up-on-guys-with-promising-futures type of draft year.
    I always want to trade down and be that team that loads up on more picks this year and next. Every time we pick, there always seems to me to be 5 guys of roughly equal value that we could take. And I always think trade down and take whoever's left.

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    This could be the year they load up on picks. Could be out of "lack of choice" in the 1st that brings them more picks. There will also be many roster spots up for grabs.

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    My position is, this is the first time in years we have a draft pick this high, we could get a need player in the first round BPA that is a master at his position. We could trade down and get more players, but we need impact players not jack-of-all trade players masters of none so to speak.
    I would consider trading down after the first, but I want that BPA in round one who could start day one no matter what position he plays as long as its a need player.

    Three positions come to mind that a gifted rookie could start on the Steelers are D-line, O-line, and ILB. Some suggested that kid from ND @ ILB, if he was there I would take him, Chance, or one of the top NT's. Since we just picked up that guy from seattle at NT, that position might not be a priority.
    Yeah, I would take either T'eo or Chance either one could start for our team, but what do we do with Colon and the hit we would take letting him go?

    OK T'eo, we have you in our sights....so do the Rats. sorry Baltimore we take him if he's there when we pick.

  9. #9
    Hall of Famer Dee Dub's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthlessBurgher View Post

    2.10 (from MIA)
    2.16 (PIT)
    2.27 (from SF)
    3.15 (PIT)
    3.18 (from CHI through MIA)
    4.16
    5.15
    7.15

    I'll leave you folks hanging for the time being before completing this initial mock this week.
    If this netted the Steelers the following players or similar to it, I'd be very pleased.

    2.10---DeAndre Hopkins WR
    2.16---Kevin Minter ILB
    2.27---T.J McDonald SS
    3.15---Bacarri Rambo FS
    3.18---Khaled Holmes C/Kyle Long OT/Sean Porter OLB
    4.16---Joseph Fauria TE
    Steelers 2014 Draft

    1-Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
    2-Jordan Matthews WR Vanderbilt
    3-Jordan Tripp ILB/OLB Montana
    4-Christian Jones ILB Florida State
    5-Brent Urban DE Virginia
    5-Michael Schofield OG/OT Michigan
    6-Kadeem Edwards OG Tennessee State
    6-Ben Gardner DE Stanford
    7-Aaron Colvin CB Oklahoma

  10. #10
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    I like the approach of loading up on picks too. Because we are going to miss on some of them... so I would rather get more picks and increase our odds of getting an impact player or 2 and some solids
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